Will the NFC North be the best division in football in 2024?

We are in the infancy of training camp across the NFL, where position battles are beginning to take shape and players aim to be better than they were the day before. Meaningful football is still a ways away — the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs kick off the 2024 regular season on Thursday, September 5 — but it’s never too early to ask the following: What division will be the best in football at the end of the regular season, and will the NFC North claim that superlative? 

The best division crown was undoubtedly claimed by the AFC North in 2023, as all four teams – the Baltimore Ravens (13-4), Cleveland Browns (11-6), Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7), and Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) – finished with a record greater than .500, the first time that has been achieved since 1935. And the AFC North is the leader in the clubhouse to reign supreme. 

According to one of the major sportsbooks (no free ads) as of July 25, the Ravens and the Bengals each have an over/under win total of 10.5 wins, with the Steelers and Browns coming in at 8.5 wins. They are the only division with two teams with an over/under of 10.5 wins. Comparatively, the NFC North only has one team with an over/under of 10.5 wins, the Detroit Lions, but the rest of the division isn’t far behind. Green Bay Packers have the second-highest over/under win total (9.5) followed by the Chicago Bears (8.5) and Minnesota Vikings (7.5). And yet, the strength of schedule, which may have been taken into consideration for the over/under totals, paints two different pictures. 

The Browns are first in Pro Football Focus’ Strength of Schedule (hardest), the Steelers are second, the Ravens are fourth, and the Bengals are 15th. However, the Vikings have the toughest schedule among the NFC North members, but their strength of schedule is only 18th, followed by the Lions (19th), Packers (22nd), and Bears (30th). 

The AFC East could be in the mix for the best division by the end of the regular season, but they are weighed down by the New England Patriots, whose over/under win total is 4.5 wins, the lowest in the NFL. The Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and New York Jets all have an over/under win total of at least 9.5 wins. 

The NFC West could also be in the mix, led by the San Francisco 49ers, but I believe there are too many question marks with the Arizona Cardinals (over/under 7.5 wins) and Seattle Seahawks (over/under 7.5 wins). Yes, I understand the Bears and Vikings also have question marks, so I will address those. 

Chicago is ushering in a new era on offense, highlighted by the key acquisitions of QB Caleb Williams (draft), RB De’Andre Swift (free agency), WR Keenan Allen (trade), and WR Rome Odunze (draft). Will Williams, the first overall selection and viewed by many as the franchise’s savior, hit the ground running with new offensive coordinator Shane Waldrop? The Bears’ season will likely hinge on how quickly the former USC product assimilates to the NFL game and whether the defense can maintain their level of play from the second half of last season. I don’t expect Williams to light the NFL world on fire, but I do believe he will be a more than competent quarterback throughout his rookie campaign. 

The Minnesota Vikings said goodbye to quarterback Kirk Cousins, opting to go with a bridge quarterback in Sam Darnold while J.J. McCarthy, the 12th overall selection in this year’s NFL Draft, develops. As of now, it appears that Darnold is QB1. And even though Darnold has had a rocky start to his NFL career, I have full faith in head coach Kevin O’Connell that he will maximize Darnold’s ceiling. It will also help that Darnold will be throwing to one of the best, if not the best, wide receivers in the game, Justin Jefferson, and one of the best tight ends, T.J. Hockenson, even though ESPN’s Kevin Seifert recently reported that Hockenson “won’t be ready to play until about a month into the 2024 season.” On the defensive side of the ball, the secondary isn’t exactly the epitome of shutdown, but the defense should have no issues in getting after the quarterback. They used their first-round pick on edge rusher Dallas Turner and signed Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel during free agency. 

As to the Packers, I understand this is a big if, but if the offense hums like they did throughout the second half of the season and the defense takes a big step under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, they should finish well above their projected over/under win total of 9.5. 

Altogether, I do believe the AFC North will end the 2024 regular season as the league’s best division, but the NFC North will be no slouch and will push for the crown. That means the Packers will have their work cut out for them in their divisional battles, something that could not be said several years prior.