Just kidding! There isn’t one! I’ve been looking, and I give up!
It’s no secret that the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers are similar teams. Matt LaFleur is from the Shanahan coaching tree, and although he has introduced several unique alterations of the basic Shanahan offense, the two teams are still very much peas in a pod. Despite the similarities, the Packers are 7-3 and the 49ers are 5-5, and so I set out on a quest to figure out what exactly what set these two teams apart. What’s driving the difference in record? What is making both teams tick, exactly? And I’m here to tell you now, this quest is INCREDIBLY ANNOYING.
I’M SICK OF IT. I GIVE UP. The fact is, THERE IS NO DIFFERENCE.
What do I mean exactly? Well, I started with the basics. Point differential. Point differential usually points (ha!) you in the right direction. Unless of course both teams are within 9 points of each other, and have scored the EXACT SAME NUMBER OF POINTS.
I know, the Packers have struggled in the red zone mightily. Maybe there’s something there, after all, the red zone is SUPER IMPORTANT.
Or MAYBE THEY ARE EXACTLY THE SAME. Although as you can see on the non-highlighted part of the chart, San Francisco has been better on third downs. That SURELY explains why the Packers have more wins.
Oh, TURNOVERS! OF course, turnovers are a big deal right! Maybe all that ball-hawking by Xavier McKinney explains it!
Or not! The Packer defense does have three more turnovers, but that hardly seems dispositive, especially given how interception-prone Jordan Love has been. Unless I’m maybe misremembering how many Purdy has thrown…
Oh, huh, three less than Love. Wow, that’s exactly the difference in takeaways by each team’s defense! GREAT. I know, advanced statistics! They will save me, here I am looking at Pro Football Reference. Maybe there’s some major difference in opponents faced that DVOA will capture!
Or maybe not! Ok ok ok, let’s check the nice, clear charts over at RBSDM.com. I’ll bet if you just graph things out a major difference just pops right out. Let’s check on defense…
Uh huh. Right. OK, offense?
Oh, come on…
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!