The Lass Word: The Window is Now Open

In the National Football League, if you have a solid organization, a capable front office, and a talented head coach and staff, you expect your team to be competitive for the playoffs, and perhaps the Super Bowl, every season.  But if your leadership knows what it’s doing, occasionally there will be spans of time when your team reaches a point where its chances of winning a championship are optimal, or at least more likely.  We like to refer to these periods as “windows”.  

With the contract extension just signed by quarterback Jordan Love, thereby stabilizing the most important position, the Green Bay Packers have just opened such a window.  For roughly the next four years, this team figures to have the talent, the finances, the coaching staff, the front office, and certainly the fan support to win its first title since 2010. 

It’s not just having a bunch of good players.  It’s having a bunch of good players who are entering the prime of their careers at the same time, and yet remaining affordable enough to hold together for at least a few seasons.  It’s having a coaching staff that has demonstrated the ability to develop young talent and have them ready for the biggest of stages.  It’s having a front office that has a knack for spotting talent off the street and in the draft, and acquiring that talent while maintaining enough cap space to fill in any gaps.  Right now this organization checks all those boxes. 

The main cog in opening the window is, of course, the Love extension.  The headlines screamed four years at $220 million, an annual average of $55 million per year.  But those numbers are a mirage.  Average annual salaries are a simple and clear way for fans to compare apples to apples.  It enables them to easily compare player contracts.  Agents love to use these figures because they only take into account new money, and therefore make it appear the agents have done a much better job for their clients  But in terms of actual impact to the team, average annual salary is meaningless.  There is only one number that matters.  That is the cap hit.  How much of the total amount of money I am allowed to pay my players does this deal eat up? 

According to Spotrac, the Love deal is structured in a way that makes his cap hit tolerable for the next four seasons.  The hit is just $20.7 million this year, $29.7 million in 2025, $36.1 million in 2026, and $42.4 million in 2027.  With the salary cap expected to expand with each passing year, those numbers should be more than affordable, and won’t hinder the team’s ability to build a quality team around the quarterback.  In 2028, Love’s cap hit balloons to $74.2 million.  But the Packers will never let it get to that.  Surely they will either restructure the contract, or let Love go if he is not working out.  The team can get out of the deal after three seasons at a reasonably practical cost. 

But far from showing signs of regression, there is every reason to believe Love is maturing into one of the best signal callers in the league, capable of leading the Packers to playoff victories, and perhaps more.  He will be entering his prime over the next four seasons.  He has an all pro caliber running back in Josh Jacobs that is already in his prime and is just 26 years old.  He has an offensive line featuring an all pro caliber guard in Elgton Jenkins, who is also the oldest member of the unit at just 28.  Young tackles Zach Tom and Rasheed Walker are only going to get better.  That doesn’t even take into account the potential of first round draft pick Jordan Morgan. 

Talented receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs don’t have to be paid for two years, and their equally talented teammates Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks for three years.  All will enter their prime during that period. 

On defense, Jaire Alexander, Rashan Gary, Xavier McKinney and Kenny Clark are at their apex right now.  Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt are ripe to get there this year, while rookies Edgerrin Cooper and Javon Bullard will get every chance to blossom with a season or two under their belt.  Preston Smith is likely past his prime, but 2023 first round pick Lukas Van Ness stands ready to become a star. 

With Love and Clark extended, there are no must-sign free agents on the horizon in 2025.  AJ Dillon, Eric Stokes and Josh Myers are the biggest names.  All three may not even be on the team next year.  That means extra cap money for free agent shopping in March.  

This is a roster good enough and ready enough to win it all, though looking around the NFC, it won’t be easy.  The 49ers aren’t going anywhere.  The Eagles and Lions are top notch. The Rams are good but Matthew Stafford is getting old. The Cowboys’ window is starting to close, while the Falcons, Bears and Vikings may be a few years away. 

Windows don’t stay open forever.  The system doesn’t allow it.  Just ask the Patriots, or the Steelers, or the Saints.  Eventually the Packers will have to pay big money to keep a few of their stars, while being forced to let others go (such as Aaron Jones), while still others age out.  But for now, the price is right and the opportunity is at hand.  The next four years look like the best chance to add another Lombardi trophy to the shelf.