The Lass Word: Lawrence Deal Sets the Market for Love

When Joe Burrow signed a contract extension with the Cincinnati Bengals for an annual average of $55 million per year, it reset the market for “elite” quarterbacks.  But when Trevor Lawrence recently inked a new deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars, which also averaged $55 million per season, it reset the market for second tier signal callers as well. 

The Green Bay Packers are in the process of negotiating an extension with Jordan Love. No doubt Love and his agent were joyful about the Lawrence deal, while there likely was consternation at 1265 Lombardi Avenue.  Any hope the Packers had of bringing Love’s new deal in around the $50 million per year mark went up in smoke.  In negotiations, the team at first could always point to Burrow having led his team to a Super Bowl, using that as at least a partial bench mark for a top of the league salary average. 

But no more.  Now Love and his agent can legitimately claim the Lawrence deal as the base line.  Is that fair?  How exactly do Love and Lawrence compare in terms of accomplishment? 

What makes such a comparison tricky is it’s a bit like apples to oranges.  Lawrence was a number one overall pick, and had been a three year starter leading up to his new contract.  Love sat behind Aaron Rodgers for three years, and only last season did he have a chance to prove himself as a franchise signal caller.  The only parallel season they had was 2023.  In addition, Jordan Love’s stats for the final ten games, including playoffs, are vastly different from the first nine.   So I’ll include both for perspective. 

Lawrence missed one game during the last regular season while Love played in all seventeen, so total stats can’t be compared straight up.   Let’s use per game averages.  Lawrence finished ninth in passing yards per game at 251.  Love was right behind at tenth averaging 244.  However, in the last ten games Love averaged 261.  Lawrence was fourteenth in completion percentage at 65.6, while Love was twentieth at 64.2.  In the last ten games Love was at 69.8, which would have ranked second in the league. 

Lawrence threw an average of 1.3 touchdowns per game, Love was at 1.9, and 2.3 in the final ten contests.  Lawrence was 21st in passer rating at 88.5.  Love was 11th at 96.1, and 112.1 in the last ten, which would have ranked him second in the NFL. 

Lawrence had 14 interceptions in sixteen games.  Love had 11 in seventeen games, and just three in the final ten games.  Lawrence was sacked 35 times, Love 30, which could be an indication Love played behind a slightly better offensive line. 

Lawrence had two game-winning drives in the fourth quarter.  Love had three. Lawrence had 339 rushing yards, Love had 247.  In three seasons, Lawrence has led the Jaguars to the playoffs just once (2022) and his playoff record is 1-1.  In one season as a starter, Love has led Green Bay to the playoffs once and has an identical post season record of 1-1. 

As you can see, in nearly every statistical comparison, where a comparison is at least somewhat reasonable, Jordan Love ranks better, or at least reasonably equal to Trevor Lawrence.  This proves even more true if you use only Love’s final ten game tear.  No doubt, if you are Love’s agent, this makes for a compelling argument that the former Utah State star should get a new deal at, or slightly above the $55 million annual average the Jags are paying to Lawrence.  The Packers can claim Love doesn’t have the track record length to be at the top of the salary chart, but that won’t help them much.  In today’s NFL, you pay the going rate or you start over. 

Of course, Love is currently still under contract for the 2024 season.  The Packers could wait and let their signal caller play out the season to determine if he is the real deal.  But if he does perform well, and there’s no reason to think he won’t, Love will only get more expensive, plus the contract extension issue will be a stench in the locker room all season long.  Just look at the drama in Dallas and Miami with the lingering extension questions surrounding Dak Prescott and Tua Tagovailoa. 

The Packers don’t need that kind of distraction.  Love should be able to start training camp with a fat new deal in his back pocket.  And along the way, he should take Trevor Lawrence out for a steak dinner.