So much volatility at the top!
Week 11 is over, and for your abacus-based power rankings, Peter has you covered somewhere on this site, but over on this side we’re trying something a little different. We’re using top-of-the-line AI (quickly switches tabs to hide Excel) to generate objective rankings. Power rankings are all about arguing about why they’re wrong, and it’s one thing to be subjectively wrong like Peter, and it’s quite another to be objectively wrong. And so, in the spirit of being objectively wrong we have created C.A.L.C.U.L.A.T.O.R., the Comprehensive Analysis of League Competition Using Latest Analytics To Organize Rankings.
What goes into Calculator? Basically, every advanced stat I have available, in addition to data based on net point differential, and the current Super Bowl odds from our friends at FanDuel. I run some formulas to smooth everything out, create a unified scale, and here we go! You can see the rankings week by week here.
Also, someone in the comments last week asked why I don’t publish the exact formula I use, and there are two major reasons. The first is that it’s laughably simple. Like, there’s really not a ton going on here. But the bigger reason is that I use some proprietary metrics from PFF and FTN, and I don’t want to publish enough information to allow readers to reverse-engineer something that those sites actually charge money for. They put a lot of effort into their metrics and they don’t need a dope like me re-publishing them on the side. I also think most of you can figure out what’s going on, at least in general.
This week, most major risers AND fallers rest in the top six, with Buffalo passing Baltimore, and Philly shooting by San Francisco. Let’s get to it!
1. Detroit Lions: CALCULATOR Score: 156.31, Change from last week, 23.91 – Detroit beat the Jaguars 52-6 in the third best individual game by DVOA of all time. Combined with losses by the Chiefs and Ravens, the Lions pitched a clean sweep in point differential, DVOA, EPA, PFF grade, Super Bowl odds, everything. The Lions are the most dominant, most complete team in the league, and at this point, the Super Bowl favorites. The Lions were the biggest risers of the week and had one of the biggest jumps of any team this year.
2. Kansas City Chiefs: 118.14, -9.41 – The Chiefs hold on to second mostly because bettors and PFF still love them, but they’re still behind the Packers in EPA, and they haven’t played a truly impressive game since Week 7 against San Francisco. Mahomes, Love, and Geno Smith lead the league in picks with 11, and Mahomes has the lowest Y/C and ANY/A of the three. It’s difficult to ever have the Chiefs on fraud watch because Mahomes is such a transcendent talent, and it’s entirely possible that once the playoffs roll around, they just snap into greatness, but…worth keeping an eye on.
3. Buffalo Bills: 109.67, 8.56 – The Bills beat the Chiefs by nine points, outgained them by over 100 yards, won the turnover battle, converted a higher percentage of third downs, committed fewer penalties, and had the ball for almost ten minutes more. And while they didn’t catch the Chiefs this week, they’re now within shouting distance if they can keep playing like one of the best teams in the league. I did predict last week that they would get a huge PFF grade bump as a sort of PFF CYA, and that did not happen, they only moved up two points, and still rank 14th, behind Denver, but they’re now +650 to win it all, and very highly ranked everywhere else.
4. Baltimore Ravens: 107.36, -10.8 – The Pittsburgh defense is very good, but this is still a surprising result, and a testament to a team that isn’t just traditionally good, but also incredibly fundamentally sound. Remember that just three weeks ago the Ravens put 41 on a Denver team that has a superior defense, but could only manage 16 against their division foes, suffering a crucial loss that leaves them a game and a half back, unable to win the head to head tiebreaker, and having already suffered in-conference losses to the Chiefs, and Raiders, and a divisional loss to the Browns. I wouldn’t panic too much though, as the big issue for Baltimore in this game was turnovers, and specifically fumbles. Derrick Henry fumbled on his second carry of the game, leading to a Chris Boswell field goal, and Isaiah Likely fumbled at his own nine-yard line with just 38 seconds remaining in the half, leading to another Boswell field goal. Fumbles are fairly random, and this is probably just a blip, but it was a costly one. Because of the tiebreaker implications, the ravens fell from +600 to +800. Hey, at least their defense played well.
5. Philadelphia Eagles: 102.8, 7.89 – The Eagles have now won six in a row and put some much-needed breathing room between themselves and the Commanders. The Eagle defense has been incredible, and they haven’t allowed more than twenty-three points since their Week 4 loss to Tampa. Saquon Barkley is showing every week what elite running back talent can accomplish behind a good offensive line, generating consistent success in addition to two to four splash plays per game. Howie really is great at his job. The Eagles are third in EPA per Play but only seventh in DVOA.
6. San Francisco 49ers: 84.48, -11.21 – No team fell more than the 49ers this week after suffering a surprising upset loss to Seattle, but maybe it’s not so surprising. Kyle Shanahan has kept the 49er machine humming for years, but it’s always relied on George Kittle and Deebo Samuel providing easy targets and solid YAC, and both of them are starting to show signs of aging. Deebo in particular has looked noticeably slower of late, and Jauan Jennings is leading the team more than anyone would like. Christian McCaffrey also appears to have lost a step, though it’s too soon to tell whether it’s just the lingering effects of injury or something more permanent. Sometimes those are one and the same. San Francisco is in last, they’ve dropped games to everyone in their division already, and they still face the Packers, Bills, and Lions, plus a potentially rejuvenated Bears, and a road game at Arizona. If they make the playoffs, it will be an impressive feat. They’re sixth in DVOA and EPA, and so the machine is still generating some efficient outcomes, but luck, injuries, and old age have them behind the eight ball.
7. Minnesota Vikings: 82.62, 2.17 – The Vikings are 8-2, and have the league’s best defense and best wide receiver. That’s not a bad spot to be in, and they easily took care Titans on Sunday by sacking Will Levis five times and picking him off once. The only blemish on the game, and the only real “flaw” in the Flores system, is that sometimes they get burned for big plays as they did on Nick Westbrook-Ikhine’s 98-yard touchdown. They face the Bears’ new quick-hitter offense next week, and Caleb’s resurgence may suffer a setback. The Vikes are fourth in EPA thanks to that defense, but of the big EPA/DVOA teams, they have the worst Super Bowl odds at +2100.
8. Houston Texans: 78.62, 3.44 – With CJ Stroud still struggling to recapture last year’s magic, it’s easy to be underwhelmed by the Texans, who rarely blow out opponents, and often win ugly. But It’s important to remember that this is fundamentally a defense-first squad with an incredibly young offensive core, and that their defense, while not on par with the Vikings, is absolutely on par with the Eagles, Steelers, Lions, Broncos, and Chargers. That defense buried the undermanned Cowboys this week, and even without a solid game from Stroud, Joe Mixon was plenty good enough to end the Cowboys. This was the first game back from injury for Nico Collins, and it will be interesting to see if they can push the offense to be just a bit better. Efficiency metrics and PFF all have the Texans around 11th, but +1700 Super Bowl odds give them a boost.
9. Los Angeles Chargers: 76.82, 2.83: I predicted the Chargers would blow out the Bengals last week, and they did for the first half, where they led 24-6, before Chargering up the second half pretty badly. The Bengals came all the way back to tie things up, but Evan McPherson missed two long field goal attempts in the fourth, and Justin Herbert led an impressive touchdown drive in just 27 seconds, connecting with Ladd McConkey twice for 55 yards before JK Dobbins scored on a 29 yard run to put them ahead for good. The third quarter lapse by the Charger defense was extremely unusual, but they were good enough. They’re all the way up to seventh in EPA and eighth in PFF grade.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers: 76.81, 3.84 – This was a truly impressive defensive performance by the Steelers, though as previously mentioned, they were the beneficiaries of some substantial fumble luck. No one has made Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry look this bad this year, and while Russell Wilson hasn’t been much better than Justin Fields, they have managed more big plays with Wilson at the helm, which complements the skillset of George Pickens. Pittsburgh has the seventh highest PFF grade, but DVOA isn’t as big of a fan and has them 14th.
11. Green Bay Packers: 76.71, .38 – The Packers fall out of the top ten because the efficiency metrics all see that the Bears should have won the game, and while there were a few positive signs for Green Bay, including Love’s health, this was hardly impressive. “Opposing missed field goals” is one of the big regression stats we look at every year, and the Packers got a big one on Sunday (though they were responsible for the block). Still, Love was excellent outside of his one interception, and had one of the best individual EPAs of the week, while the defense struggled a bit with the Bears running attack and their new, quick-throw offense. Efficiency stats still like Green Bay quite well where they rank around eighth, but PFF continues to hate us with a passion as we have once again fallen behind the Jets at 22nd.
If you’re wondering about the efficacy of using PFF grades here, this is a good opportunity to elaborate. The efficiency stats like DVOA and EPA have some weighting built in. The passing offense is more important than the rushing offense. Pass defense is more important than rush defense. PFF doesn’t really have that, and so poor grades in an area that doesn’t matter as much can drag. The Packers have a very poor run-blocking grade (54.7), a very poor run defense grade (57.2), and even though their passing game has been pretty good, their receivers have a poor grade as a unit mostly due to drops. They also have a 61.2 special teams’ grade, which is 28th in the league. I think most of these grades are pretty accurate, and they convey important information about the team. In a vacuum, that run defense grade is less important than their fairly solid coverage grade (70.5), but it’s also what allows a team like the Bears to run all over you and put you in danger of losing. So, while it’s tempting to just say “Lol PFF,” and I’m definitely not above that, there is some logic to how they handle their analysis, and I do think it adds some important diversity to what could otherwise just be an echo chamber of different EPA flavors. I think it’s a legitimate grade for the Packers. Now, as to whether the Jets should be ahead of them…we’ll get to that.
12. Washington Commanders: 70.31, -5.15 – The Commanders are still in good shape for a playoff berth, but it’s going to be tricky to win the division after the Eagles held them to just 18 points in a crushing loss. Washington’s offense is still one of the best of the league, but they’re no longer ahead of the Bills, Ravens, or Lions, and their defense is almost identical to the Bengals in EPA. You can score on the Commanders, even if you won’t always be able to stop them from scoring on you. They’re eighth in EPA and twelfth in Super Bowl odds.
13. Denver Broncos: 67.78, 5.15 – The AFC West is loaded with great defenses, which is worth bearing in mind when we evaluate the play of rookie Bo Nix. Nix was one of the lower regarded prospects in the last draft class behind Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels (and JJ McCarthy and Michael Penix), but this was an excellent class with all seeming like viable options, and on the season, Nix is now solidly average. That “average” starts to look better when you consider many of his worst games came against the Chiefs, Chargers, and Steelers, where many quarterbacks have struggled (and the Chiefs game wasn’t even THAT bad, really). This week, Nix and the Broncos tore apart the Atlanta Falcons 38-6, with Nix completing 28/33 passes for 307 yards, four touchdowns, and no picks. The Denver defense harassed Kirk Cousins into several bad throws and one pick, and the vaunted Atlanta rushing attack had 20 carries for 50 yards. Nix is smart, he gets the ball out quick, and he has an excellent arm. As a system guy with great defensive support, you could do a lot worse. They’re also 1-4 in one score games and could be right there with KC with any kind of luck. If the playoffs started today, they’d be traveling to Buffalo to face the Bills outdoors in the elements, and while Buffalo probably wins that game, it certainly wouldn’t be easy. Since week six, the 10th, 11th, and 12th quarterbacks in EPA per play are Patrick Mahomes (1.91), Justin Herbert (1.82), and Bo Nix (1.62).
14. Arizona Cardinals: 67.46, .96 – Finally, someone has a bye week. The Cards are still leading their division and play at Seattle next week.
15. Atlanta Falcons: 64.64, -5.15 – Boy did Atlanta get smoked. They had no answer for a diverse, quick hitting Denver offense and could do absolutely nothing against a dominant Orange Crush defense. The Falcons are still in good shape in the South with multi-game leads and tiebreakers over the Bucs and Saints, but there is some danger here. Atlanta has their bye this week before facing two defenses on par with Denver’s, at home against the Chargers, and on the road at Minnesota. It gets a lot easier after that (it is the South, after all), but the division could look quite a bit tighter down the stretch, especially if the Saints can stay healthy. The Falcons are 19th in DVOA while the Saints are 20th, and the Bucs are way up at 15th. But PFF still loves these guys at fifth overall, giving them a substantial boost, and hey, they truly are in a good spot to make the playoffs.
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 61.16, -.25 – The Bucs had a much, much needed bye week after losing four games in a row to the Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs (OT), and 49ers. Three of the four losses were one-score games. They might get Mike Evans back, which would be a huge help, and they still get the Panthers twice, the Giants, the Raiders, and the Cowboys. There’s an outside chance their final game against New Orleans actually means something. Tampa is 16th in DVOA and 17th in EPA and belongs exactly where they are.
17. Cincinnati Bengals: 61.03, -2.5 – With the loss this week, the Bengals’ Super Bowl odds cratered from +5000 to +9000, reflecting an incredibly uphill battle to just to reach the playoffs. Only the truly atrocious Jaguars defense, fresh off getting nuked by the Lions, and the all-time terrible Panthers team have allowed more points this season than Cinci. They can score with anyone, but their point differential on the year is +1, meaning that whatever team they face is, on average, as good on offense as the Bengals are whenever they’re facing the Bengals defense. Just a deeply flawed, unbalanced team.
18. Seattle Seahawks: 60.93, 1.56 – The real story of this game is the 49ers offense struggling to put up points against a Seattle defense that just isn’t that good. They held Brock Purdy to 159 yards passing and picked him off once, and the Seattle offense did just enough to get past their divisional rivals. Arizona leads the West followed by every other team tied at 5-5, one game back. Seattle split with San Francisco, has lost one to the Rams, and has yet to face the Cardinals. With DK Metcalf fully back, a run isn’t out of the question. PFF still loves the Seahawks at 10th overall.
19. Los Angeles Rams: 60.10, 3.64 – You officially need to be careful against the Patriots. Drake Maye was 30/40 for 282 yards, two scores, and a pick (a desperation 3rd and 13 throw on their last possession of the game) and did a marvelous job spreading the ball around to a bunch of no-name weirdos. Someone named Vederian Lowe caught a touchdown in this game. Unfortunately for the Pats, Matthew Stafford was amazing, taking no sacks, giving no interceptions, and throwing for four touchdowns. With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both eclipsing 100 yards, the Rams looked scary again. They’ll have to be scary if they’re going to finish strong against a tough schedule, including non-division games against the Eagles and Bills. The Rams are 19th in EPA, where they are almost exactly 0.0.
20. Indianapolis Colts: 56.71, 1.10 – Anthony Richardson returned with a solid passing performance (20/30, 272 yards, 1 TD), and pitched in two more scores on the ground. More importantly, Richardson was far more accurate on short and intermediate throws than at any other time this year, partially because he entirely avoided the left-middle, which has been his worst area of the field this season. Richardson still has some work to do, but it’s encouraging that some improvement is already obvious on tape. The Colts scored the go-ahead touchdown on a Richardson run with just 46 seconds remaining, and Aaron Rodgers got completely destroyed twice by Kwity Paye on the Jets’ final drive, to end the game. Seems appropriate. The Indy defense hasn’t been that bad, and while it’s probably too late for them at this point, it’s worth keeping an eye out for offensive development. Even though it was just the Jets.
21. New Orleans Saints: 54.38, 1.48 – OK, the Saints are weird, but if you understand the nature of a salary cap-constrained team that actually still drafts fairly well, they make sense. Their resource constraints mean that they have no depth at all, but remember, this team had one of the best defenses (and especially run defenses) in the league last year, and Derek Carr isn’t THAT bad. Maybe the craziest part of the Saints is the apparent impact of former Packer quarterback and current tight end Taysom Hill. When Hill suits up, the Saints are averaging 28.5 points per game, and own a 4-3 record. When he’s out, they average 15.5 and have lost every game. Now, there’s definitely some selection bias in there, as he has tended to miss the tough ones, but he has been a big play machine this season. The Saints also lost breakout star Rashid Shaheed earlier this year, but a recent resurgence by Marquez Valdes-Scantling has given them back the deep threat they were missing. I’m not willing to say that the Saints are good exactly, but if you were forcing me to bet on one of the real longshots, they, at +34000, would probably be it.
22. Miami Dolphins: 52.28, 2.02 – The Dolphins have a nice two-game winning streak going, and they hung with the Bills before that, and Tua has been quite good since he’s been back. All of that said, I don’t believe the Dolphins are good enough to overcome the hole they’ve dug. I mean, they only beat the Raiders which is barely anything. Of note, however, is that every single team with a -16 DVOA or worse has +100000 Super Bowl Odds. The Dolphins are +7000, the same as the Rams and Seahawks.
23. Chicago Bears: 52.11, -.32 – The Bears don’t fall much on their loss to the Packers, and I think that’s probably appropriate. They lost on an extremely fluky play (again!), and they showed immediate improvement in the wake of Shane Waldron’s departure. I’m not sure the offense will be good enough to be a real threat down the stretch, but the Bears’ defense is still quite good, and they’re probably going to be peaking just in time for division play to start. That defense has them sixteenth in EPA overall, which is a good base here if they can stop being moronic.
24. New York Jets: 51.55, -1.57 – The tragicomedy of the Jets has come to an end with the dismissal of Joe Douglas. Now they’re just sad, and it’s a shame that we sometimes have to watch them play football. PFF has them ranked above Green Bay, and here I will absolutely not go to bat for PFF, this is asinine. On pass blocking and rushing alone, the Packers should have the higher overall grade. Apparently, a small difference in special teams and pass rush puts New York over the top. PFF is like the Jets of football analysis. Which I assume they will take as a complement, apparently!
25. New York Giants: 46.62, -.25: The Giants are benching Daniel Jones (possibly to escape some contractual clauses) and going with Tommy Devito in their next game against the Bucs. Devito is, of course, the quarterback who defeated the Packers last season by basically doing a Bryce Young impersonation, which is the only time that’s going to work, ever. The Giants rank right around 25th in basically everything and are getting what they deserve.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars: 42.83, -4.78 – The Lions had a bye this week, which should set them up well for their game against the Colts on Sunday.
27. Tennessee Titans: 41.11, .47 – I don’t really understand the lack of a decline here. I suppose it’s just based on the idea that they would get killed by the Vikings, and then they did that. Levis was sacked five times, threw a pick, and secured their 28th DVOA ranking. PFF still thinks the Titans are the second worst team in the league with a 64.7 composite grade. And on this one, respect.
28. Dallas Cowboys: 39.98, -2.17 – I feel like this happens every year right around Thanksgiving. The true disaster squads like the Giants, Jags, and Cowboys just completely blow up and drop all pretenses of trying to compete, hot seats get hotter, and backups start to see time. The Cowboys were starting Cooper Rush due to Dak’s injury, but their effort this week was embarrassing. Every year we talk about how defenses are extremely volatile and unpredictable from year to year. Last season, by EPA, the Cowboys had one of the five best defenses in football along with the Jets, Ravens, Browns, and Chiefs. Fast forward a year and KC is 14th in EPA (though they are subjectively better in my opinion), the Jets are 17th, the Ravens are 21st, the Browns are 20th, and the Cowboys are 30th. This era of the Cowboys is over.
29. Las Vegas Raiders: 38.16, -.35 – The Raiders aren’t in quit mode so much as prospect scouting mode, and that’s where they’ve been all year. Did they lose to the Dolphins? Yes. Did Brock Bowers have 126 yards and a score despite catching passes from Gardner Minshew? Also yes. Did second year defensive end Tyree Wilson get a strip sack of Tua? Indeed. You can build on some of this, which is nice. They are fourth worst in all metrics, but given their talent level and quarterback, I think that’s actually pretty impressive.
30. New England Patriots: 37.95, -.74 – Drake Maye played really well, Matthew Stafford just played better. The Pats are in a great spot, honestly. While the Raiders still need to find a quarterback, the Pats have theirs, and will be in a great spot to start building around him with some seriously good draft capital including nine picks in 2025. Maye is also getting good experience in a low-pressure environment and not taking too many hits in the process. I think it’s possible to rebuild without a total team teardown, but if you find yourself on the wrong end of the win curve, this is how you do it.
31. Cleveland Browns: 36.04, -1.92 – Carolina, they’re coming for you! The Browns lost to the Saints by allowing Taysom and MVS to gain a combined 275 yards against them, which is honestly incredible. It was Hill’s third 100-yard rushing game of his career, and the second three TD rushing game of his career. And Jameis wasn’t even that bad, throwing for 395 yards and two scores. They just couldn’t stop anyone, because they’re the Browns, and their front office sabotaged them with an unplayable dirtbag quarterback, and they all know it. They are last in DVOA, but 28th in EPA.
32. Carolina Panthers: 32.27, -.44 – Luckily for the Browns, the Panthers had a bye. Also, luckily for the Browns, the Panthers play the Chiefs next week. Oh dear.