There are too many words this week.
Week 10 is over, and for your Clark Kent-style power rankings, Peter has you covered here, but over on this side we’re trying something a little different. We’re going for Superman, people! Power rankings are all about arguing about why they’re wrong, and it’s one thing to be subjectively wrong like Peter, and it’s quite another to be objectively wrong. And so, in the spirit of being objectively wrong we have created C.A.L.C.U.L.A.T.O.R., the Comprehensive Analysis of League Competition Using Latest Analytics To Organize Rankings.
What goes into Calculator? Basically, every advanced stat I have available, in addition to data based on net point differential, and the current Super Bowl odds from our friends at FanDuel. I run some formulas to smooth everything out, create a unified scale, and here we go! You can see the rankings week by week here.
The Packers may have had a bye, but that’s not stopping us, and we have plenty of major risers and fallers including the Eagles joining the elites, and a major crash from the Bears. Who could have seen that coming? Let’s get to it!
1. Detroit Lions: CALCULATOR Score: 132.4, Change from last week: -1.2 – Yes, Jared Goff threw five interceptions, and yes, the Lions didn’t exactly look great against Houston, but they still pulled off the win, and hey, it was almost certainly a more convincing win than the runner-up Chiefs, who have an enormous Colts’ logo stuck where the sun don’t shine. Detroit is first in DVOA, second in EPA, and under +500 to win it all.
2. Kansas City Chiefs: 127.55, -3.44 – Denver had it man. It was right there, just like it was for Tampa the week before. Unfortunately, there are three phases of football, and former University of Wisconsin linebacker Leo Chenal busted through to block a potential game-winning field goal from Will Lutz on the last play of the game. The Denver defense was their usual dominant selves again after the Ravens pantsed them last week, and Bo Nix even outdueled Patrick Mahomes with 215 yards and two touchdowns. The Chiefs feel like the biggest frauds in the universe, but they are third in DVOA, seventh in PFF grade, and as usual, +430 to win it all. (They’re below the Packers in EPA by one spot, by the way.)
3. Baltimore Ravens: 118.17, 2.59 – The Ravens are the best offensive teams in the league, but that defense sure is a major liability. By defensive EPA, they are only superior to five teams including the Bengals, who they just defeated last Thursday. I always worry about these kinds of teams (cough – 2011 Packers – cough) once the weather gets cold and the playoffs roll around, but maybe Derrick Henry will be enough to hold off opposing offenses. Baltimore is second in DVOA and PFF, and +600 to win it all.
4. Buffalo Bills: 101.11, 2.21 – The Bills are 8-2, and no other team in their division has more than three wins. The only thing left for them is to prove just how good they are, and over their next four games, they face the Chiefs, 49ers, Rams, and Lions. I think the Bills are great, but there are some holes in that resume, including a three-week road trip against Baltimore, Houston, and the Jets where they failed to eclipse 23 points. Still, they’ve mostly beaten everyone badly and scored no fewer than 30 in every other game. Also, Khalil Shakir was a DVOA superstar prior to this year, and sometimes guys lose some juice (cough – Allen Lazard – cough) when their role expands, as his did when the Bills moved on from Stefon Diggs. Shakir has responded by catching 88.9% of his passes so far, which is the highest percentage since at least 2000 for any receiver with at least 50 targets. The Bills are first in EPA, but just sixth in DVOA. PFF still hates them and has them 15th, but I’ll make a little prediction. I’ll bet if the Bills beat the Chiefs, their season PFF grade moves from 77.2 up to at least 83, as a sort of CYA move from our friends at Pro Football Focus.
5. San Francisco 49ers: 95.69, 1.18 – The 49ers have Christian McCaffrey back! When did that happen? He wasn’t great running against Tampa, but he did provide 68 easy yards for Brock Purdy through the air. The most alarming part of this game for San Francisco was their complete inability to stop Bucky Irving, who rushed for 73 yards on 13 carries. If the Bucs had a better backup RB than Rachaad White they may have won this game, as White was dropped for a three-yard loss on a 2nd and goal carry from the 5 with just 53 seconds left. The Bucs instead settled for a game-tying 26-yard field goal and left too much time for Purdy. The Niners are something like eighth according to efficiency stats, but they’re fourth per PFF. They are now tied with Philly in Super Bowl odds at +1000.
6. Philadelphia Eagles: 94.91, 7.47 – The Eagles have had a defensive transformation since last year, when they could not defend the pass AT ALL. The reason? Former University of Wisconsin linebacker Zack Baun came over from the Saints, and he’s become the best cover linebacker in football. The Eagles also drafted Cooper DeJean, and while he’s been integrated slowly (partially due to injury), he too, has been phenomenal, as has fellow rookie Quinyon Mitchell. Combine that with a bounceback season from Darius Slay, and one of the worst secondaries in football is suddenly one of the best. The Eagles are the biggest risers of the week on the strength of absolutely destroying the Cowboys, and you probably shouldn’t get THAT much cred for destroying the Cowboys, but here we are. The Eagles are now third in EPA per Play.
7. Minnesota Vikings: 80.44, -2.4 – Note the large dropoff between the Eagles and Vikings, who took a small tumble by barely beating the atrocious Mac Jones-led Jaguars in an ugly 12-7 game in which Sam Darnold continued his rapid pumpkinization. Minnesota still has an incredible defense, but the offense has been slowly regressing over the course of the season to the point that they are now essentially tied with Aaron and the Jets for offensive firepower per EPA. They are fourth in DVOA just behind KC, but Minnesota has worse Super Bowl odds than Green Bay.
8. Green Bay Packers: 76.34, .85 – The Packers had a bye, of course, and the division didn’t quite implode in their absence, but the Lions and Vikings were terrible in victory and the Bears suffered something akin to the heat death of the universe, but for a football team. The three Packer losses, to the Lions, Vikings, and Eagles, are also looking pretty reasonable at this point. They have the seventh-best Super Bowl odds, and those odds are doing the heavy lifting here.
9. Washington Commanders: 75.6, -4.31 – Pittsburgh just keeps on winning through opportunistic offense, George Pickens bending himself into newly discovered shapes, and a typically solid defense. That defense kept Jayden Daniels out of the end zone entirely, and held him to a 50% completion rate, although the Washington running game was able to punch it in three times. Washington and Baltimore occupy a similar space on the EPA chart, as both are outstanding offensively, but atrocious on defense. If they settle for too many field goals or make a few mistakes, they’re vulnerable. They’re fifth overall in EPA at 1.46 per play, but 24th in defensive EPA where they lose .050 points. Something to keep an eye on. Only Atlanta and Chicago fell more this week.
10. Houston Texans: 75.18, 1.19 – Houston lost an incredible game in which they picked off Jared Goff five times (though one was an end-of-half Hail Mary) and still couldn’t get it done, due to two damaging CJ Stroud picks of his own, as well as incredibly conservative play calling, something that has been all too common in Houston. Without Nico Collins, no team has faced more third and longs than Houston. They have a two-game lead in a terrible division and are almost assured of making the playoffs, but Houston remains on fraud watch. They’re 15th in EPA, 11th in DVOA, and have the seventh-best Super Bowl odds. Maybe Nico gives them a shot in the arm against their in-state rival Cowboys next week. They’ve been outscored by two points on the season.
11. Los Angeles Chargers: 73.99, 2.68 – Jim Harbaugh rarely runs a high-flying offense, but the Chargers have developed into enough of a threat that, paired with the league’s second-best defense, they’re extremely formidable. Their wins don’t jump off the page as they’re usually something like 2X to 1Y, just like this week’s 27-17 win over Tennessee. My one big knock on them is they haven’t played a tough schedule, and they’ve lost to their better opponents, but you can see the growth taking place on offense. This team is seventh in EPA per play, though only eleventh in DVOA due to their strength of schedule. Whatever you think of the Chargers, they’re likely a bit of a bargain at +3500 to win it all.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers: 72.97, -.081 – Why on earth did this team move down with a win over a good Washington team? Well, the close victory didn’t move many needles. They’re still +3500 to win it all, just like last week. PFF downgraded them two points, apparently not caring for the aesthetics of the win. Even their DVOA and EPA took teeny tiny little hits. Basically, Pittsburgh played like Pittsburgh and still has the same chance of winning it all as Pittsburgh, and so they stay right here, at 12th, in the Pittsburgh spot. I personally think their resume looks pretty good, but I guess being 12th overall actually is pretty good?
13. Atlanta Falcons: 69.79, -4.44 – Atlanta is the second biggest faller of the week, but really, they should have fallen more. Yes, the Saints have Derek Carr back, but that’s no excuse for getting torched by our good old friend Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who caught all three of his targets for 109 yards and two scores. Kirk Cousins threw for over 300 yards and Bijan Robinson had 116 yards and two scores, but Cousins threw a late pick, and Younghoe Koo officially has the yips, going just one for four on field goals. Atlanta is 15th in EPA, 14th in DVOA, and so here we are.
14. Arizona Cardinals: 66.49, 4.80 – Kudos to the Cardinals for hanging tough through a very difficult early schedule (Bills/Lions/Commanders/49ers/Packers/Chargers), stealing wins against the Chargers and 49ers, and running the table over the past three weeks against some of the dregs of the league. They’ve been particularly impressive lately, destroying the Jets and Bears, two similar teams with good defenses, and various bizarre issues on offense. They enter their bye week in first place, owning wins over the Rams and 49ers already, and playing some of their best football. Kyler Murray is completing 69.2% of his passes and rarely takes a sack, and their rushing attack has quietly become one of the most dangerous in the league. Their defense hasn’t really gotten it done against good offenses yet, but there are some promising signs there as well. Their DVOA jumped from 6.2 to 12.5 over the past week, where they now rank 12th. Their EPA hasn’t kept pace, and they’re still +6000 to win it all, but they’re going to be difficult to catch in the West as the back half of the schedule is quite a bit easier: Seattle twice, New England and Carolina still await them. The Cards were the third biggest riser of the week.
15. Cincinnati Bengals: 63.53, -2.64 – I think the best way to explain the Bengals is to point out that they occupy the exact same space as the Bucs on the RBSDM Team Tiers chart.
The difference, of course, is that the Bengals came into the season healthy on offense, with the expectation that Joe Burrow would return to one of the league’s premier pocket passers (which he has), turning Cinci into contenders, while the Bucs were viewed mostly as “also-rans,” with a plucky Baker Mayfield relying on a good veteran receiving core to just keep them respectable. All of these things are true, the problem is there’s a ceiling on merely good offense with a traditional pocket passer, and if your defense is atrocious, well, this is kind of where you land. It’s interesting just to see the pocket passer wall of Goff/Purdy/Burrow/Baker at .1 EPA, with Allen/Daniels/Jackson on the other side. The Bengals are a game behind Denver for the final wild card spot at the moment. They’ve only beaten bad teams (Carolina/NYG/Cleveland/Las Vegas) and lost to very good teams (KC/Washington/Baltimore twice, barely/Philly) outside of a bizarre week one loss to New England. They can hang with anyone, but they’re undisciplined, and can’t generate stops. They’re basically 15th in all major metrics. I’ll bet the Chargers destroy them this week.
16. Denver Broncos: 62.63, 1.28 – Friggin’ Chiefs man. The Denver defense returned to form this week, stymying the underwhelming Chiefs offense, which really could use someone like MVS to stretch the field. Late in the game, Patrick Mahomes led a go-ahead field goal drive, culminating in a 20-yard Harrison Butker kick. The Denver defense denied the Chiefs three times from the Denver five-yard line, giving their offense a chance to come down and win it with a field goal of their own. Known chud Butker shanked the kickoff, allowing Denver to start from the 40, and they ran a methodical drive, running all time off the clock, and not making the mistake of giving the ball back to Mahomes. Unfortunately, Leo Chenal blocked Wil Lutz’s 35-yard attempt, and that was that. The Broncos actually gain a few because hey, they should have won. They’re 15th in DVOA, and right around there in everything else. They remain a flawed team, but a tough out.
17. Tampa Bay Bucs: 61.41, -2.43 – The NFL, especially the modern NFL, is not a game for cowards. When people look back at the Bucs at year’s end, they’ll see an older team that didn’t have much in the way of expectations and stop thinking much more about them. However, the Bucs are currently two games back of the division-leading Falcons, and over the past two weeks they’ve lost to the Chiefs and 49ers simply because they were cowards. Well, that’s not entirely true, as last week against Kansas City, there is certainly no guaranty that they would have converted a two-point conversion, but their odds would have been better than “Mahomes in Overtime.” This week, on their final drive of the game, they moved all the way down to the San Francisco 13-yard line on nine straight Baker Mayfield passes, and to the eight on an illegal use of hands penalty. Then, they got conservative. Last season, Rachaad White had -.41 rushing yards over expected the fifth worst in the league. This year he has improved to -.02. That is still bad! Instead of continuing to pass to score, they decided to “take time off the clock” by rushing White twice for net 0 yards. Baker was incomplete on third and goal, and instead of scoring a go-ahead touchdown, they kicked a tying field goal, leaving the 49ers with 41 second and a timeout. That was too much. Wins over the Chiefs and 49ers would look pretty good on the resume of a 6-4 Tampa team. Instead, the Bucs are the Bengals with a slightly better DVOA.
18. Seattle Seahawks: 59.37, -.34 – Seattle doesn’t move much due to the bye. They’ve lost five of their last six games, and they’re just not the same team without DK Metcalf. He’s getting closer to returning, but still might not be ready for the 49ers on Sunday, in what is basically a must-win situation. They’re all the way down to 12th in PFF grade, and they’re flirting with falling below 80.
19. Los Angeles Rams: 56.46, -2.06 – I’ve been touting the Rams as a bit of a sleeping giant who weathered the loss of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp well enough to make a strong playoff push upon their return, and then they go and lose to Miami. Now, a Tua-led Miami is much better than the other kind of Miami, and so it’s not quite as bad as it looks, but it’s not like Miami’s defense is any good, and the Rams only scored 15 points! And Tua even turned the ball over twice. The Rams were only able to leverage a field goal off of those turnovers, and only scored five field goals in total. Los Angeles now has a major uphill battle to make the playoffs, and their super Bowl odds crashed from +5500 to +9000 as a result. Woof.
20. Indianapolis Colts: 55.60, -1.21 – I hate it when franchises do dumb stuff. Did you know that Jim Irsay’s daughter Carlie is on a headset on the sideline during games?
That’s…not a good sign for the maturity of an organization. The only thing worse would be having Jim down there with a headset on. Anyway, Joe Flacco, who is fine but certainly not good, had a rough game against the Bills last week, throwing two touchdowns, but three interceptions. I think it’s worth reminding everyone that the Bills have an outstanding defense AND offense, and the Colts do not. A veteran gunslinger like Flacco realizes he will need to take a few chances to win, and he did. The Colts didn’t get it done, but man, the Bills are 8-2, and you, Indianapolis Colts, are not the Ravens, or even the Texans. Indy reacted by reinstating Anthony Richardson as the starter, which is ridiculous. Richardson, if he is ever going to work, needs Jordan Love-esque development time. His tools are great, but his mechanics are bad, and you can’t fix bad mechanics while working on game prep during the week. Anyway, dumb team is dumb. The Colts are 17th via PFF, which apparently doesn’t have a separate grade for big dummy-headed organizations.
21. New York Jets: 53.12, -3.73 – Aaron Rodgers threw for just 151 yards against the Cardinals, with Davante Adams catching just six of thirteen targets for 31 yards. Rodgers was also sacked three times and looks just about ready to join the staff of the FDA in some capacity. They’re now tied for last in the division with the Patriots. Among many other things, their run defense has gotten to be quite poor lately and has become a drag on their defensive DVOA. This is the first week the Jets have fallen below the Packers in PFF grade. Lol.
22. New Orleans Saints: 52.90, .22 – The Saints may be dumb and cash-strapped, but it’s important to remind ourselves occasionally that Derek Carr isn’t actually a horrible quarterback, he’s just average-y. And sometimes average-y quarterbacks have good games! And hit MVS twice for touchdowns! By the way, MVS didn’t score on his longest catch of the game, a 67-yarder in the second quarter. The Saints won the turnover battle, picking Kirk Cousins off once, and also got to Cousins for three sacks while they kept Derek Carr completely clean. An injured New Orleans has no depth at all and is one of the worst teams in the league. With Carr, Kamara, and Taysom Hill all back, they ascend all the way to “not terrible.” PFF hates them and has them 27th overall. Efficiency-wise they’re right about 21st.
23. Chicago Bears: 52.43, -5.39 – Our biggest faller of the week is no surprise. The Bears have been atrocious since the Washington Hail Mary, Caleb Williams has been sacked fifteen times over the past two weeks including nine times on Sunday, and Chicago fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron earlier this week. Same old Bears, man. It’s kind of a shame because there is real talent here, but general dysfunction and locker room issues (especially around DJ Moore) have destroyed any chance at a breakthrough season. I would caution Packer fans about getting overly cocky this week, however. The Bears still boast the league’s best pass defense by EPA, and teams who fire coordinators midseason often get a regression bounce. Williams has had three games this year with a passer rating over 100, and it’s not as if the Packers’ edge rushers are particularly frightening. But do not confuse a warning not to get cocky as an endorsement. This team is trash, even if PFF has them one spot above Green Bay, which they do, because they are dumb. They are 17th in EPA, but DVOA sees through their incredibly easy schedule, and has them 24th.
24. Miami Dolphins: 50.26, 4.95 – Our second biggest riser of the week is coming off an impressive victory over the Rams (following an impressive, narrow loss to the Bills), which has some wondering if the Dolphins can make a run for the playoffs with Tua back. Denver currently holds the final spot at 5-5, 2.5 games clear of Miami, but the Dolphins have games against the Raiders, Patriots, Jets (x2), and Browns remaining. So Maybe? But honestly, probably not. It’s not as if Tua has played that well since returning, and I don’t think the Pats or Browns are really pushovers anymore either. I suspect the hole is too big. Worth noting, I suppose, that their Super Bowl odds did jump from +10000 to +7000.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars: 47.61, -.15 – Screw Jacksonville for not completing the upset over the Vikings last week. There is no reason anyone should be employing Mac Jones until he spends some time at Driveline and/or the gym. Preferably “and.” This team deserves no attention, and it’s a tragedy every time they return from England. PFF loves Jacksonville as the 19th-best team in the league just behind Cincinnati. Perhaps Jason Mendoza is working there as a film grader. It would explain a lot.
26. New York Giants: 46.87, -.7 – The Giants lost to the Panthers. THE PANTHERS, MAN. Yes, yes, that is two wins in a row for the Panthers, but still, come on. Now that DeShaun Watson is dead I think it’s safe to say that Daniel Jones is the worst quarterback in the league. I mean, there are worse quarterbacks than Daniel Jones, for sure, but of the qualifying QBs with a lower Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A), Caleb Williams and Bryce Young still have unrealized potential (as does Anthony Richardson, I mean, in theory). And Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew aren’t “real” starters, and their teams know it. If you’re ever running an NFL franchise and find yourself with a 26-year-old Daniel Jones as the starter, that’s how you know it’s time to tear it all down. Or give him a four-year, $160 million contract. One of the two.
27. Dallas Cowboys: 42.15, -4.28 – Well, Dak is dead, and Mike McCarthy is probably dead too. The Cowboys have lost four in a row, most recently to the Eagles, by 28 points, and it’s honestly difficult to imagine them winning another game this year. They do play the Giants on Thanksgiving in what NFL analysts are calling “the best time to maybe do the dishes, or to drive your uncle home so he doesn’t get into trouble later.” Dallas is second last in EPA and they’re a strong threat to make a run at Carolina with Cooper Rush at the helm the rest of the year.
28. Tennessee Titans: 40.64, -.32 – The Titans play the Vikings this week and Will Levis is back, having returned against the Chargers last week. They sacked him seven times but did not pick him off. The Vikings are going to murder that poor man. The Titans are 29th in DVOA, 31% below average, and have the second-worst PFF grade.
29. New England Patriots: 38.69, 4.11 – While the Colts are sticking Anthony Richardson right back into the fire, the Patriots took their time, letting Jacoby Brissett run things and only pushing Drake Maye in a few garbage time situations, and when injuries inevitably hit Brissett. Maye made his first start in Week 6, which is probably sooner than the Pats would have liked, but the slow roll did him good. Maye looks like a competent quarterback with serious playmaking ability. He hasn’t been perfect, but given his supporting cast, he’s been very impressive, and the Patriots are no longer a check-box win. They ended the Bears’ offensive coordinator last week and can potentially put a stake through the Rams this week if they take another step forward. All of that said, New England is still very much rebuilding, and they have an underlying talent issue. They’re plucky, but they’re still the fifth worst EPA team overall, and tied for last in Super Bowl odds at +100,000.
30. Las Vegas Raiders: 38.51, .16 – The Raiders had a bye. And I’m taking my own bye on talking about the Raiders.
31. Cleveland Browns: 37.96, -.28 – It is too late for Cleveland at 2-7, as they suffered a fitting end at the hands of the Chargers, a team they would probably like to be. The Browns entered the season with quite a lot of hype based on their defense, with the promise of at least average offense from Deshaun Watson. Instead, Watson was the worst quarterback in the league, and everyone sort of packed it in, including a defense that has been merely average. Maybe moving to Jameis Winston earlier would have helped, but having sold off at the trade deadline, the Cleveland offense never had a chance against Jim Harbaugh’s club. The Browns suck. You don’t need metrics to know that. By next week they’ll be last in DVOA instead of second to last.
32. Carolina Panthers: 32.71, 2.73 – Carolina has actually looked decent lately, and even Bryce Young has been decent (though he still lacks an NFL-caliber arm in my opinion). It’s just that they have such a big hole to climb out of, it may be a while. They’re almost ahead of Cleveland in DVOA, but in EPA they have a ways to go to catch Dallas. They’re also still last via PFF.