Going out with a bang.
Week…wait, the season! The entire season is over, and honestly, we don’t really need power rankings anymore. The power rankings are the friends we made along the way. But really, power rankings are all about arguing about why they’re wrong, and it’s one thing to be subjectively wrong like every other power ranking on earth, but it’s quite another to be objectively wrong. And so, in the spirit of being objectively wrong we have created C.A.L.C.U.L.A.T.O.R., the Comprehensive Analysis of League Competition Using Latest Analytics To Organize Rankings.
What goes into Calculator? Basically, every advanced stat I have available, in addition to data based on net point differential, and the current Super Bowl odds from our friends at FanDuel. I run some formulas to smooth everything out, create a unified scale, and here we go! You can see the rankings week by week here.
This week we have the Calculator Awards, featuring your champion Lions, and your deserved losers, overtaking Carolina, the Browns. Let’s get to it!
1. Detroit Lions: CALCULATOR Score: 156.17, Change from last week, 14.10 – CALC Champs!
If ever there was a deserving champion, it is the 15-2 Lions, who have overcome massive injuries and not missed a beat in garnering the league’s best record (tied with…well, we’ll get there), best point differential (+222), 2nd best DVOA, 2nd best EPA, and top PFF Grade. If you look at any major stat Detroit almost certainly landed in the top 5, they almost never beat themselves, they almost never commit any of the various boneheaded plays that the Packers have become infamous for, and they finished the season with 5 straight 30-point performances, including an absolute demolition of the Vikings to secure the one seed. They have adjusted to losing most of their corners by ramping up a fierce pass rush akin to what Brian Flores calls for the Vikings. They are the odds-on Super Bowl favorite, they should be, and if they were any kind of healthy, they would be even scarier than they are.
2. Kansas City Chiefs: 133.94, 10.84 – CALC Frauds!
Remember, it’s been two weeks since our poetry slam, and while the Chiefs’ backups got pantsed by the Broncos, no one cares, and so the Chiefs still move up. They finish second overall largely due to a good (but not great) season, and the second-best Super Bowl odds of the playoff teams (note: we stopped holding SB odds against non-playoff teams for obvious reasons). They’re 6th in PFF grade and 8th in DVOA, which is close enough to elite, but of course, their insane record in one score games leaves us skeptical on their playoff future. Patrick Mahomes can compensate for a lot, and he is the last person you want to see opposite you in a one-score game, but I, personally, will not be picking the Chiefs against the Ravens or Bills should it come down to that.
3. Baltimore Ravens: 125.86, 14.66 – Underachiever and Proud of It
The Ravens finished 12-5, but they also finished first in our hearts, and more importantly, in DVOA. And in AFC point differential. And total EPA. All of that said…it’s hard to feel THAT confident in this team, because while some of those losses are fluky (Isaiah Likely’s toe against the Chiefs for example) they also lost to the RAIDERS and the BROWNS, and even though they made the playoffs, that 18-16 loss to the Steelers doesn’t sit well with me either. The Ravens have a phenomenal offense, and the league’s best run defense, but their pass defense is atrocious (which is NOT how you want a defense to be) and that will always leave them vulnerable to teams with big offenses. They are, unquestionably, the best “analytics” team, but will their lack of balance be their undoing?
4. Buffalo Bills: 112.67, -12.81 – The “Mini Raven” Award
Hey, have you heard about the team with the mobile quarterback, elite offense, great run defense, and trash pass defense? No, not them, the ones that are slightly worse than the Ravens at everything. See here:
And here:
And here:
The Bills are, I believe, incorrectly viewed as complete juggernauts while the Ravens are viewed as “good but flawed,” whereas they should really just be viewed as doppelgangers. And the other advanced stats do not come to Buffalo’s rescue as they trail by a significant margin in DVOA (41.4 to 22.7, worse than GB), and, as usual, PFF hates them and has them 19th. I’m not saying the Bills are going to go and get upset by the Broncos, but they will be facing the league’s best overall defense, and they won’t really gain any kind of weather advantage in snowy Buffalo. The doppelganger Ravens did destroy the Broncos but it’s worth noting that Denver held Mr. Jackson to 4 yards on 3 carries. Jackson was sublime as a passer and hey, Josh Allen is more than capable of the same kind of performance, but if this game gets messy, as it did against the Houston Texans in Week 5, it could go South for the Bills in a hurry.
The Bills are very good, and certainly one of the five truly elite teams in the league, and yes, I would take them straight up against KC (and also this weekend against Denver), but they’re not QUITE as strong as the popular conception imho, and Denver is not an ideal first round matchup.
5. Philadelphia Eagles: 112.13, .51 – The Run Kings
The Eagles are pretty great, and there’s not a lot of holes to poke. They had a clever draft in which they fixed a terrible secondary in a single season, they have a great pass rush, outstanding offensive line, and when they put Saquon Barkley behind said line (with the boost of a good rushing quarterback) they created something truly special. BUT, they’re fifth for a reason, and that reason is the passing game, where, per EPA, they rank just 8th, and using DVOA they’re all the way down at 14th! DVOA adjusts for defenses faced and is punishing them for an easier slate of defenses than EPA is capable of, and there’s some reason to trust the FTN folks here. If you’re looking for some hope for Green Bay, there’s not a lot, and I suspect Matt LaFleur will spend too much time running into the teeth of a truly great run defense, but quarterbacks matter a lot, and the Packers have the better one. The Eagles are number one in rush EPA, just ahead of the Ravens.
6. Minnesota Vikings: 85.97, -6.90 – The Blitz Kings
No one blitzes more than the Vikings, and they’ve done so to great effect. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores may go down in defensive coordinator history as something of a Shanahan figure when it’s all said any done, as few have done more for creative innovation on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, down the stretch the Tampa Bay Bucs have begun to emulate the Vikings, blitzing at a historically high rate, especially on third downs. The Vikings wind up with the league’s best overall pass defense by DVOA, and that’s not a bad weapon to have at your disposal. Of concern, they actually rank lower in weighted DVOA (which focuses on more recent games) than the Rams do and are far from a sure thing to advance. The NFC was really quite strong this year. Anyway, the Vikings are a tier below the elite, but they still have a few elite tools, and they’ll likely go as far as Sam Darnold can take them.
7. Green Bay Packers: 82.19, -10.22 – The “Evil Will Always Triumph Because Good is Dumb” award.
The Packers are third overall in DVOA. On a per play basis, they’re incredibly efficient, their defense is much improved despite several injuries, and even the special teams are better, though still not perfect. But man oh man, they just cannot get out of their own way. I think one thing I’ve learned about Matt LaFleur, and some of the Shanahan’s generally, is that great creativity in play design does not mean that the same coach will be adept at coaching up his guys on execution, or game management, or a host of other qualities. The Packers are extremely dangerous because if they play a clean game, not even the Lions are better. But they’re zero for seventeen on playing clean games so far this year, and I can’t imagine it changes now.
Matt either needs to develop some better hard skills, or to hire better lieutenants.
8. Tampa Bay Bucs: 77.03, 8.38 – The “Let’s Be Vikings” team.
Since Tom Brady left and Baker Mayfield took over, the Bucs really haven’t slowed down much on offense. Baker’s been low-key great, and with Mike Evans back and healthy, this team actually finished 5th in dropback EPA AND passing DVOA, and fifth in overall in weighted offensive DVOA. The Bucs can score. The problem for them has been on the defensive side of the ball, where they’re just a bit old and rickety, but since week 12 they’ve gone absolutely blitz crazy. On late downs, they’ve been blitzing 2/3 of the time, a historically high rate for any team. And since week 12, the most they’ve allowed is 26 to the Cowboys, and that 26-point effort required two 58-yard field goals from Brandon Aubrey, plus another 53-yarder. Now, their schedule was VERY soft over that span, but they went 6-1, mostly destroying the dregs of the South, while also putting a 40-spot on a very good Charger defense. The Bucs might not be a sleeping juggernaut, but they’re better than the Commanders, who they face this weekend, and any team that takes them lightly will pay for it. The Baker resurgence has been fun.
9. Los Angeles Chargers: 77.03, 7.23 – The Jim Harbaugh Award for the Jim Harbaughiest Team of the Year
I do not typically wager on sporting events, but if forced to bet this weekend, my money would go on the Chargers against a Houston team that features an elite defense, but a truly atrocious offense. What makes a Jim Harbaughiest team? They play outstanding defense, especially against the pass where they rank 6th overall. And they almost never beat themselves, with Justin Herbert posting a league low interception percentage of .06%. The Harbaugh squad also requires a solid rushing attack, which JK Dobbins has been more than adequate to provide, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Add in a star making rookie campaign from Ladd McConkey, and you wind up with one of the tougher outs of the AFC playoffs. The Chargers won’t win many shootouts, but their defense generally keeps them out of such situations, and against Houston, it’s unlikely to be a problem. Teams have found some success on the ground against LA, but, well, let’s save that stat for Houston. A good defense supporting an offense that never puts it in a bad position can go far.
10. Denver Broncos: 70.75, -.03 – The Defensive EPA Kings
Per DVOA, the Bronco defense is a mere 4th, but with a -.100 EPA per play, the Broncos nip the second place Vikings. They’re also, more importantly, number 1 in dropback DVOA, and almost twice as good as the Vikings on passing plays. But here, I think, we have a good example of the subtle differences of EPA and DVOA, with DVOA’s slightly lower ranking coming out on top. For starters, EPA doesn’t ignore the Chiefs game last week, and that game was enough to boost the Broncos from second to first, with a HUGE boost to their dropback EPA. The FTN DVOA calculations either eliminate or downplay teams resting their starters, and so that game is largely ignored. DVOA also sees the very light Denver schedule of quarterbacks for what it was. This is a team that fattened up on Justin Fields, Aaron Rodgers early, Gardner Minshew, Spencer Rattler, early Bryce Young, the decrepit corpse of Kirk Cousins, Anthony Richardson Gardner Minshew again, and Jameis Winston. Let me put it this way, in making this list, I had to click on almost every game to double check who was actually playing QB that day. When the Broncos faced a more elite quarterback, like, for instance, Lamar Jackson, they got torched for 41 points. Justin Herbert put up 23 early and 34 late. Joe Burrow was good for 30.
And so, forgive me for saying the Broncos look a little fraud-y. It’s worth noting that Bo Nix and company have been quite a bit better lately, and Denver actually climbed all the way to 5th in weighted DVOA overall (slightly ahead of the Bills!), but while weighted DVOA is useful, it contains a LOT of small sample noise, and Bo lighting up the Bengals defense doesn’t do a lot for me. They’re intriguing and they’ve done a lot of good work. In this instance, I suspect EPA is overrating them.
11. Washington Commanders: 69.70, -.21 – The “Bengals of the NFC” Award
The Commanders have a great offense, ranking right around sixth in all major metrics, and in DVOA, they’re basically tied offensively with the Bengals, who can score with the best of them, but will be watching from their skyline chili-soaked couches. On the defensive side of the ball, Washington is a little better than Cincinnati, (23rd v. 27th), but still quite bad. The Commanders won 12 games, including 5 in a row to end the season, but they also got absolutely torched by any team with any semblance of a good offense, including Tampa (37), Cinci (33), Baltimore (30), Philly (26), Philly again but with Kenny Pickett (33), and once to Dallas (34). They’re good, and they generally blew out the bad teams, and Jaylen Daniels will be an x-factor for years to come. Washington probably can beat any team on any given day, but they are just as likely pull a Bengals and lose a 35-33 shootout. The playoffs are full of good offenses, including Tampa in the first round. Prepare for fireworks.
12. Los Angeles Rams: 67.01, -2.81 – The True Weighted DVOA Champs
We here at Calculator headquarters have been touting the Rams as a dangerous team all year, as they lost a lot of games (including to the Packers) when they were one of the most injured teams in football, and then they got healthy. Woe to the Vikings, who have the Rams in the first round. While you would probably rather play the Rams than the Eagles, this isn’t going to be easy for the 14-3 team from Minnesota, visiting the 10-7 division winners. AS previously mentioned, Weighted DVOA is noisy due to the small sample of looking at only recent games, but the Rams are the quintessential example of why it’s useful, you just need the proper context. The Broncos late-season boost came mostly from a soft schedule and a phoned-in Chiefs. The Rams, on the other hand, have had real improvement through health, and while they rank 17th in normal DVOA and 19th in EPA per Play, they’re all the way up to 9th in the weighted version, which is slightly better than the Vikings, who rank 11th in the same metric. Now, the Vikings may be closer to their 7th overall unweighted ranking, but the Rams are definitely not more like their 17th rank. This is a team that won a 44-42 shootout with the Bills, and then went and held the 49ers, Jets, and Cards to single-digit outputs before phoning in the last meaningless game of the season with a Jimmy Garoppolo start. The most likely upset of the first round is right here.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers: 63.96, -5.68 – The “I’m in Danger” Award
First, kudos to the Steelers for splitting the season series with the Ravens, as they grabbed a win in week 11 by a score of 18-16. That’s six Chris Boswell field goals. It was a weird game in which Derrick Henry only received 13 carries, and no offense played particularly well. You’re never going to beat the Steelers in a rock fight. But getting these Ravens in the playoffs is just terrible luck, as they’re just a ton better than the Steelers, and one of the best wild cards of all time. By Calculator, this is the biggest mismatch of round one, and Vegas agrees, with the Ravens giving 9 points. The Steelers finished the season with a negative EPA, but PFF still loves their effort, and they finished 7th by the scouting metric. The best bet to be one and done, and the second worst playoff team.
14. Cincinnati Bengals: 63.75, 1.54 – The “AFC Bears” Award/The “Fun but Dumb” Award
Rarely has such a dysfunctional organization managed to accrue so many talented players together in one place. Of course, basically all of those talented players want out, because no amount of talent can overcome the inertia created from a fundamentally poor organizational structure. Joe Burrow had a phenomenal comeback season, Ja’Marr Chase led the league in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, Trey Hendrickson led the league in sacks, and none of it mattered. The Bengals allowed 34 or more points 6 times, and 24 or more 11 times. They can console themselves with the knowledge that they were the best team to not make the playoffs.
15. Houston Texans: 63.13, -5.92 – The “STOP RUNNING” Award
The Raiders were the worst running team in football this year, averaging an almost inconceivable -.283 EPA per rush, and a success rate of 33.1%, meaning that after 2/3s of their runs, the Raiders were less likely to pick up a first down/touchdown than they were before the run. The second worst success rate is held by the Houston Texans, at 33.3%. DVOA basically agrees and has them ranked 27th when running. The Raiders were at least smart enough to not bother running (and of course, they were always behind), and so ran just 380 times on the season, while Houston ran the ball a fairly robust 434 times.
And so, when we’re considering CJ Stroud’s sophomore slump, please keep in mind that while he was below average, his running game was putting him in the worst down and distance situations of any quarterback in football save for whoever was working for the Raiders that day. That Stroud played huge chunks of the season without Stefon Diggs, and/or Nico Collins, and/or Tank Dell. That he has, I think the worst offensive coordinator left in the playoffs in Bobby Slowik.
The Houston defense is legit, and finished 3rd overall in DVOA. This is the team that picked off Jared Goff 5 times and still lost. That’s the Texans in a nutshell. Bet they don’t pick Justin Herbert off 5 times this weekend.
16. Arizona Cardinals: 62.26, 2.58 – The “Whoops, Wrong Receiver” Award
Marvin Harrison Jr. was the fourth overall player taken in the NFL draft, and the first receiver off the board. He was the consensus best receiver in a very good class, and criticizing the Cardinals for taking him would be an engaging in revisionist history, but by my personal receiver metrics WROPS and WROBA, there were always red flags on Marvin, the biggest being that he just didn’t catch enough of his targets. There were plenty of excuses available for this, including Kyle McCord being terrible, but it wasn’t a problem for Cade Stover, who had one of the highest catch percentages in all of college football in 2023, and it wasn’t a problem for the troubled Emeka Egbuka, who struggled, but caught WAY more of his targets than did Harrison. Now, catch percentage isn’t everything, but players with elite stats and traits and everything else, and a poor catch percentage, are often plagued by drops in the pros, at least early in their careers, and boy, did Harrison struggle with drops AND contested catches, and as a result Harrison really struggled. Of the 19 rookie receivers and tight ends with at least 35 targets, he finished fifth in yards (Thomas, Nabers, Bowers, McConkey) and way down at 16th in catch percentage. Drops and issues with contested catches continued to be an issue.
The Cardinals barely missed the playoffs despite a strong running game, and a decent enough defense, and given that Harrison was by far the least reliable pass-catcher on the team (Harrison finished with a 53.4% catch percentage while the next lowest, from Michael Wilson was a far better 66.2%) and still soaked up a ton of volume, second on the team with 116 targets, it’s easy to see this team stealing another win or two with any of Nabers, Thomas, or McConkey. First round picks can really make or break your team.
17. San Francisco 49ers: 61.7, -2.19 – The “Talent Is More Important Than Genius” Award
Every once in a while the vintage 49ers would jump up and put 30+ on the Jets, or the Pats, or the Seahawks, or the Cowboys, or the Bears, and even the Lions, but all of the brilliant Shanahan play-calling in the world can’t compensate for the breakdowns that start to come from old age. The defense, started to get creaky with Nick Bosa missing three games, and former Packer De’Vondre Campbell finishing third on the team in tackles. Isaac Yiadom played a lot too. While Fred Warner still destroyed anyone foolish enough to test the middle of the 49er defense, there were far too many weak spots available for it to matter.
On offense Jauan Jennings led the team in targets. That is really not what you want. Brandon Aiyuk was hurt and ineffective, Deebo Samuel may very well be washed, and while George Kittle put up one of the greatest DVOA tight end seasons of all time, without a consistent running game or outside receiver, things fell apart. By EPA the 49ers were almost identical to the Cardinals, and it’s interesting to imagine how they would be with 34th overall pick Ladd McConkey, a prototypical 49er if ever there was one, instead of 31st overall pick Ricky Pearsall.
The 49ers now have to decide exactly how to go about rebuilding a roster that’s being held together by a soon to be 32-year-old tight end, and how much to pay their system quarterback.
18. Seattle Seahawks: 61.2, 1.74 – The Geniocrity Award
Geno Smith deserves a ton of credit for resurrecting his career out in Seattle, and he’s definitely entered the tier of a quarterback you CAN win with, but Seattle is in a tough spot. They’re 12th in PFF grade, 16th in EPA, and 18th in DVOA, in that layer of teams where you’re not good enough to contend with a medium quarterback, and with no avenue to improve significantly. You might limp into the playoffs every now and then with a near .500 record, and the Seahawks almost did, but it’s VERY difficult to make a team like Seattle into a contender without a massive overhaul, and it’s hard to overhaul a pretty likeable, medium-successful team. But here we are.
19. Atlanta Falcons: 60.97, -.77 – The “Lions If They Were Bad” award.
So, you put together a killer, almost second to none one-two punch in the running game, a potential alpha dog of Drake London, supplemented by an underrated Darnell Mooney, and all you really needed was a quarterback. A seemingly cromulent Kirk Cousins could have been just what the doctor ordered! But, while the Robinson/Allgeier duo was outstanding, Cousins turned out to be completely washed, Kyle Pitts appears to be bad at football, and the defense, which finished 2023 a respectable 12th in EPA crashed to 20th. The jury is still out on Michael Penix, who saw some limited time at the end of the year (and occasionally flashed) and so Atlanta doesn’t even really know where they stand at the most important position going forward.
If you’re going to miss on a free agent quarterback, miss younger and cheaper.
20. Indianapolis Colts: 55.19, .34 – The “Bombs Away” Award.
As long as the Irsays are in charge, the Colts will always be a bit weird, and honestly, it’s kind of impossible to say what the Colts might be like if they had a normal owner. A normal owner would take a look at quarterback Anthony Richardson, a Josh Allen clone if ever there was one, and put him on a similar developmental path to work on his very, very obvious flaws with short accuracy, but this is the Colts, and so they’ve had the big man out there taking on linebackers one on one, and hucking it deep to Alec Pierce, and that’s kind of it.
When you have a developmental prospect like Richardson you need to have a tolerance for some growing pains, and you need to do some in-game teaching (if you’re going to play him right away), that isn’t to his natural strengths. Indianapolis does not do this, and honestly, it’s kind of a shame. Richardson is still just 22 years old, and far from a finished product, but all of the running has gotten him hurt on several occasions, and the lingering temptation of Joe Flacco on the bench led to some mixed messaging. I was personally quite high on Richardson out of college even though accuracy was an issue, because his physical tools are among the best ever to play the game, and because his internal clock was extremely fast. No one was sacked less as a percentage of his pressures, which is always a great sign. But unfortunately, I don’t really think the Colts know what they’re doing. Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck were finished products out of college. Richardson is not. Plenty of teams have gotten good at this, and the Colts should steal some personnel from the Packers or Vikings or 49ers or Bills or Ravens or any of the other teams that know what they’re doing.
Richardson led the NFL in Yards per Completion at 14.4. Second place Lamar Jackson came in at 13.2, but Jackson completed 66.7% of his passes versus 47.4 for Richardson.
21. Miami Dolphins: 53.63, .18 – The “Mismatched Quarterback” Award
It’s actually pretty bonkers that Miami’s offense was so transcendentally great back in 2023 given that his issue existed even then. The fact of the matter is that Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t really “fit” with the incredible speed of the Miami skill position players, and this isn’t even really a knock on Tua. If you swapped him in for Brock Purdy, I mean, before the 49ers completely fell apart, I think he would put up league-leading statistics. In fact, I’ll bet you didn’t notice that Tua actually led the NFL in completion percentage this year. He’s and INCREDIBLY accurate passer. But Tua’s arm just isn’t up to par. It’s not unplayable, but it’s below average, and with Tyreek Hill in particular excelling on deep routes, it just didn’t work this year. I actually think Tua’s repeated concussions have robbed him of some of his ability to anticipate throws like he used to (this is VERY bad, and he should maybe retire), and the addition of Jonnu Smith at tight end gave him a safer, highly attractive short target. Tua also missed a ton of time with said concussions, and what was a well-oiled machine just a year ago fell apart.
I’m not really sure there’s a huge lesson to be learned from the Dolphins. The biggest though, is probably that putting your quarterback in harms way too often can have catastrophic results, especially if he isn’t built like Josh Allen.
22. New York Jets: 51.74, .84 – The First Ever Aaron Rodgers Award for Outstanding Achievement in the Field of Excellence.
According to the standard that Aaron Rodgers uses to judge scientific claims, this was an outstanding achievement from the Jets, who managed a career low in toxins, implanted computer chips, and mRNA, while reaching all-time highs in essential oils, ayahuasca, and not taking responsibility.
Unfortunately, the league values “wins” more than it values “time spent away from minicamp ‘learning’ about the Great Pyramids” and so the Jets were unfairly kept out of the playoffs. But can we really hold one man, an elderly, slightly insane quarterback, entirely responsible for the plight of New York’s second team just because he hired all of his friends and got the team to trade for his all-pro friend receiver and then had all of the coaches he didn’t like fired but kept Nathaniel Hackett around?
I mean, who among us?
23. Chicago Bears: 50.62, 1.33 – The Chicago Bears Award for Bearsing Hardest
We like to make fun of the Bears, but we should, perhaps, remain at least slightly humble, first, because the Bears were an eyelash away from sweeping the Packers like the rest of the North did, and second because instead of doubling down on their failing coaching staff, they actually pulled the trigger on both head coach AND offensive coordinator. While it may not be great for Caleb Williams that he’s going to have to start over with a new staff, at least the coach and the OC will actually be aligned, for like the first time in a couple of decades.
The Bears also were unquestionably unlucky, and hilariously so, going 2-7 in one-score games, and so, probably not as bad as the popular perception. Chicago needs a huge infusion of talent at edge rusher and of course, on the offensive line, but they’re not completely hopeless. They are really funny though.
24. New Orleans Saints: 49.09, -1.41 – The “Abandon All Hope” Award
Our resident veterans of salary cap hell will remain there for quite a bit longer while their aging core continues to, well, age. The Saints were occasionally a pretty good team when Alvin Kamara, Rashied Shaheed, Derek Carr, and Taysom Hill were all healthy, but that lasted approximately 13 minutes, and when it was all said and done, they had the same record as the frickin’ Panthers.
No team has ever needed a complete teardown and rebuild more, and because they can’t even cut anyone without restructuring and extending them first, due to their cap situation, they functionally cannot rebuild. They will literally probably have to be bad for a minimum of five years before they can be good again.
If anyone ever tells you that the cap isn’t real, you’ll know better.
25. Dallas Cowboys: 47.39, -1.04 – The “It’s Like Anything” Award
Mike McCarthy is extremely predictable, and even though the Cowboys were really quite good in 2023, there was a sizeable contingent of analysts who expected the Cowboys to struggle. Perhaps not quite to this extent, but the issue with the Mac is that there’s no mystery or growth. If you have seen one McCarthy game plan you’ve seen them all, and it really comes down to two factors:
1. Does the QB make the correct read during the play, and,
2. Are the Cowboy skill position players better than their defensive counterparts.
Some coaches grant their players an advantage, through creativity, through strategic acumen, or through military-style expectations of perfect execution. Mike was once in that third category, but his charges aren’t as clean as they once were, and he’s always behind the eight ball on the other in creativity and strategy. The Cowboys lost a lot of players including Dak Prescott over the course of the season, and without a personnel edge, they were dead in the water. It’s worth noting that while the Bears suffered a fair amount of bad luck, the Cowboys actually overperformed their expected win total by about two wins. It could have been worse, and with truer luck, it would have been.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars: 46.08, 1.38 – The” Yeah, No” award.
Yeah. No.
27. Las Vegas Raiders: 44.41, 2.05 – The “I’m a Loser Baby” award.
No team in football understood what they were more than the Raiders, who are the closest thing the NFL has to outright tanking. They employed a trio of bleh quarterbacks, the league’s absolute worst rushing attack, and they started selling off assets like Davante Adams when they could. They actually have the bones of a decent defense with Maxx Crosby anchoring things (though he missed time with an injury), and it’s not impossible to make the case that the Raiders had aspirations to contending via defense, skill position talent, and competent game management from Gardner Minshew, but it quickly became apparent that they were going to have to punt on this entire thing.
They were occasionally plucky, and Brock Bowers may already be the best tight end in the league, but until the quarterback position is settled, it’s hard to imagine how this team competes with the Broncos, Chargers, and Chiefs.
28. New York Giants: 43.06, 2.15 – The “Raiders but Trying” Award
The only difference between the Giants and Raiders is that the Raiders understood what they were much sooner. The Giants suffered plenty of ridicule for their decision to pay the one guy that definitely wasn’t going to work out in Daniel Jones, who was unceremoniously cut midseason, while Saquon Barkley set records for the Eagles. Despite what can only be considered an absolute disaster of a development cycle, the Giants didn’t make any major changes to the offseason.
At least Malik Nabers is in a big market?
29. New England Patriots: The” QB Development” Award
Drake Maye is a fairly raw prospect in need of some work on the finer points of quarterbacking. He’s pretty lucky he didn’t wind up on the Colts averaging 15 yards per target and getting crushed. Instead, the Patriots took a measured approach, starting with Jacoby Brissett, and working Maye in progressively more throughout the season as he became more comfortable. Maye has a cannon for an arm, and while draftmate Caleb Williams was focusing on checking down and staying alive in Chicago, Maye was showing off his big play ability in the low-pressure environment of a New England team that did NOT have the expectations created by DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze.
Maye’s season wasn’t statistically outstanding, but his physical talent, decision-making, and playmaking was simply outstanding, with some of the worst receivers in football. Once the Patriots leverage their lofty draft status into a few more pass-catchers, this team will be good in an instant.
30. Tennessee Titans: 39.17, -.09 – The “Titanic Mess” Award
I should mention, for the umpteenth time, that the Titans’ pass defense was actually decent, but it didn’t matter because Will Levis, who through a million picks in college and was sacked a billion times in college, through a million picks and was sacked a billion times. He was, in truth, sacked on a league-leading 13% of dropbacks, a mind-bogglingly bad performance that made Caleb Williams look like Alex Smith, and wound up getting Levis knocked out for the year. Mason Rudolph was a calmer game caller, but Mason Rudolph isn’t the answer to any quarterbacking question, and by that time, the Titans has very clearly given up, losing their last 6 games including 2 to the Jags. Lol.
The Titans need to realize that they absolutely do not have their quarterback and start planning for the post-Levis era now. This just isn’t going to work. The Titans finished with the second worst PFF grade because they’re just always a disaster of game management.
31. Carolina Panthers: 37.11, -.15 – The “Maybe?” Award?
Halfway through 2024 I would have advised the Panthers to move on from Bryce Young immediately. I was never a fan of his game in college and thought his physical limitations would always create a hard ceiling in the NFL. But after their week 11 bye, the Panthers turned into something of a plucky undermanned juggernaut, suffering extremely narrow losses to Kansas City and Tampa, dropping a close, one-score game to Philly, and winning in OT against the Falcons and Cardinals. The Bucs beat the tar out of them (seriously, beware the Bucs).
Young started using is mobility to greater effect, finding passing lanes that were not previously available, and dotting downfield passes to his questionable receiving corps. Rookie Xavier Legette provided the types of simple catch-and-run targets that we were supposed to see from Jonathan Mingo (traded to Dallas, LOL Cowboys), and if the Panthers can add a real field-stretch in the offseason, this might end up looking like a real honest-to-god offense. This looked like the worst situation in football early, and Carolina had what was a historically bad start, but they managed to catch the Saints in record, and passed a team in Calculator. There may be hope after all.
32. Cleveland Browns: 36.78, -1.69 – The WOOOOOOOOOOOOORST.
No team has suffered the level of severe self-inflicted wound that the Browns have, giving an asinine guaranteed contract to a sex pest with an extremely questionable on-field upside considering some of the injuries he suffered in Houston. There were no other serious bidders, at least on this level, for Watson, and the Browns are just screwed as a result. The ascension of Baker Mayfield in Tampa is just icing on the cake, capping off a great year for former Browns and Jets everywhere.
The Browns played themselves financially and ethically and found out. A half a century of Browns football now looks like some form of pre-karma for their recent actions, and it’s going to take years and years to dig themselves out of this hole.