Aside from a handful of players, the receiver class lacks the size and speed that fits the 2025 Packers
One of the things we do here at Acme Packing Company is look at the Green Bay Packers’ historical trends when it comes to the NFL draft. Last year, despite cutting many prominent draft picks off of our Packers Athletic Thresholds Board, we managed to include all four of Green Bay’s first four picks on our shortlist — and probably would have had linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper, too, had we considered the possibility of him going that high.
Heights, weights and 40 times matter to this team. Ron Wolf learned from Al Davis. Ted Thompson learned from Ron Wolf. Brian Gutekunst learned from Ted Thompson. Height, weight and speed are core concepts of this club. Sometimes it can be frustrating that it’s so obvious who the Packers will and won’t consider on draft night, but it’s hard to complain with the results that the team has put together over the last 30ish seasons.
So when I began to research this receiver class, I started to get nervous. This draft class doesn’t have a lot of what the Packers both want or need. We’ll get into the specifics of this later, but just know that if Green Bay plans on trying to solve its receiver issues through the draft, they’ll be sweating bullets on draft week.
What the Packers want at receiver
Historically, Green Bay has avoided drafting smaller receivers. That has only become clearer under head coach Matt LaFleur, whose run-based offense demands that these receivers not only block on the perimeter but also contribute as blockers in tighter formations that see receivers line up just a few yards from offensive tackles at times.
Based on the snap data in regular seasons since LaFleur joined the Packers in 2019 and the weights that LaFleur’s receivers were at the combine, the average receiver snap over LaFleur’s tenure as head coach comes out to 207.6 pounds per play. For perspective, only four teams have drafted a group of receivers from 2011-2023 who weighed as much as that on average.
That’s also including significant snaps from Randall Cobb’s second stint with Green Bay. General manager Brian Gutekunst stated publically when the team traded for Cobb that he wouldn’t have made the move had it not been a part of then-quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ condition to return to the Packers. That is to say, there’s a good chance that the 207.6 pounds per snap figure could have been even heavier if it wasn’t for Rodgers’ meddling.
Out of the seven most-played Packers receivers under LaFleur, six of them were at least 204 pounds coming out of college. The only exception is Jayden Reed at 191 pounds. Reed is very much the exception, not the rule, and it’s unlikely that Green Bay will roll out two expectations on the field at the same time — especially after the running game struggled with both Reed and Bo Melton in the lineup toward the end of the season.
All of the players who were 204+ pounds were also at least 6’0” flat for the Packers, too. So just how many 200-pound, 6’0”-flat or larger receivers are available in this draft class for LaFleur? According to NFL Draft Scout, 14 of the 40 receivers that the website has ranked so far this year are expected to hit those marks:
- Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona
- Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State
- Tre Harris, Mississippi
- Elic Ayomanor, Stanford
- Jayden Higgins, Iowa State
- Antwane Wells Jr., Mississippi
- Bru McCoy, Tennessee
- Donte Thornton Jr., Tennessee
- Jack Bech, TCU
- Beaux Collins, Notre Dame
- DaQuan Felton, Virginia Tech
- Savion Williams, TCU
- Traeshon Holden, Oregon
- Will Sheppard, Colorado
What the Packers need at receiver
So now that we’ve set the table for what the Packers generally look for in receiver prospects, let’s talk about what the team actually needs in the 2025 season. Speed receiver Christian Watson tore his ACL to end the season, which will likely take him off of the field for three-quarters of the regular season. Even once he returns, who knows if he’ll be able to take the top off of the defense, something Green Bay desperately needs, once he’s back in the lineup.
Speed. That’s what the Packers need. For at least the first three or so months of the 2025 regular season but maybe beyond, too. Watson is going into the final year of his rookie contract this year, and it’s impossible to nail down what a contract extension would look for him — a player who is more impactful than his numbers would suggest but is also coming off of a major injury.
Thankfully, NFL Draft Scout also estimates players’ 40-yard dash times. No one is saying that the Packers must land a player with a 4.36-second 40-yard dash that Watson ran as a prospect, but a Watson replacement can’t be running in the 4.5s either. Per NFL Draft Scout, 8 of the 14 receivers who are “Green Bay-sized” are expected to run a 4.5-second 40-yard dash or slower later this month at the combine.
That leaves us with just six “Green Bay-sized” receivers who are expected to run in the 4.4-second ballpark:
- Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona (#7 on the consensus draft board)
- Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State (#23)
- Elic Ayomanor, Stanford (#53)
- Savion Williams, TCU (#74)
- DaQuan Felton, Virginia Tech (#386)
- Beaux Collins, Notre Dame (#425)
At least one of those players, Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan, won’t be available when the Packers go on the clock with the 23rd pick of the 2025 draft, barring some major off-field or medical situation between now and then. There’s a chance that Emeka Egbuka of Ohio State, who is being mocked right around the range that Green Bay is drafting in the first round, won’t be there either.
According to the consensus draft board, two of our four remaining qualifiers, DaQuan Felton of Virginia Tech and Beaux Collins of Notre Dame, are more likely to be undrafted free agents than draft picks.
If the Packers are going to stick to their standards, which they historically do even when a need is pressed, then there’s a possibility that the only real options for field-stretching big receivers in the draft are Stanford’s Elic Ayomanor and TCU’s Savion Williams. That’s really threading the needle.
Hopefully, some of these receivers who missed these thresholds, either due to their expected frame or their expected speed, beat the numbers set for them by NFL Draft Scout. If not, the Packers might want to look beyond the draft to address the receiver position, as the draft class simply isn’t providing them with a lot of talent at what they both want historically and need right now.
It turns out “just find another Marquez Valdes-Scantling” isn’t as easy as it sounds in practice.