From favorites to plus money longshots, consider these props as you wager on Super Bowl LIX.
The biggest betting event of the year is here. Longshot props, squares, or just straight cash at a friend’s Sunday get-together will have us all screaming for and getting wildly disappointed over teams we have absolutely no rooting interest in. And isn’t that the true spirit of Super Bowl weekend?
As we’ve heard about ad nauseam the last two weeks, this is the second time in three years the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are squaring off for the Lombardi Trophy. To state the obvious, this will surely factor into a number of props, as will the historical factors at play: Saquon’s quest for the playoff rushing record, the Chiefs’ quest for a three-peat, and even the first halftime show to include up to three diss tracks!
The wager options are endless and we’re here to give you a few of our favorite bets of the week, from quirky, under-the-radar props to run-of-the-mill, every-week picks. Let’s jump in below with the odds from Fanduel.
Mahomes Longest Rush over 13.5 yards (-114)
In four Super Bowl appearances, Patrick Mahomes has rushed for: 29, 33, 44, and 66 yards. We know he can scoot, and he’s shown it again and again these playoffs by more than doubling his scramble rate. With the Eagles’ lack of blitzes (only 19% of dropbacks) and their comfortability sitting back in zone coverage (bottom five in man coverage rate), Mahomes should be able to break off one or two impact runs.
Bettors will remember the nightmare that unfolded at the end of Super Bowl LIV with Mahomes’ rushing over, as three end-of-game kneeldowns brought his total down from 44 to 29 yards.
We’ll try to avoid that same scenario here and try something a little safer, going with Mahomes longest rush over 13.5 yards, a mark he’s hit in three of his four Super Bowls.
Nolan Smith over 0.5 sacks (+108)
Can the Chiefs’ offensive line handle the constant barrage from the Eagles’ front seven? The question has been batted around ad nauseam for two weeks now, so we won’t relitigate it here, but it just may be the key to cashing this prop as the Chiefs have allowed a mediocre 2.4 sacks per game.
Nolan Smith is on fire right now, recording four sacks in the playoffs, nearly reaching his regular season total of 6.5. Lining up against Jawaan Taylor, who’s allowed the most pressure on the Chiefs this season, should give Smith the speed advantage needed to get the edge and take down Mahomes at least once.
Either Team to Kick Game Winning Walk Off Field Goal At the End of Regulation (+1200)
Looking for bragging rights this Sunday? The privilege to stand up at the party and annoyingly claim “I KNEW that would happen!”? Look no further than this +1200 prop from Fanduel. The rationale here is simple. This projects to be a close game (-1.5 spread) and both kickers, Harrison Butker and Jake Elliott, have their team’s utmost trust. Despite a few misses from Elliott lately, if this thing comes down to the wire, both offenses will feel comfortable setting up a field goal to avoid giving the other even a fraction of the time left.
Chris Jones Super Bowl LIX MVP (+6500)
You wanna get nuts? Let’s get nuts. Out of 58 Super Bowl MVP’s, 33 have been Quarterbacks. 15 of those 58 have come from receivers and running backs. That leaves just 10 defensive players to have ever won the game’s biggest honor.
Both teams are stacked with defensive talent, but we’re going with Chris Jones here, as he’s the top option for the favored Chiefs. To get the obvious out of the way, Patrick Mahomes is the overwhelmingly likely pick here if the Chiefs three-peat. The narrative will be strong and there’s practically no way the Chiefs win without a strong Mahomes performance. But what if voters get fatigue? Mahomes has won three Super Bowl MVP’s. Does he really need another? Isn’t that just greedy?
If the Chiefs put on a dominating defensive performance and shut down the dangerous rushing duo of Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts, the MVP may become a real conversation. Imagine a tight, low-scoring game going into the fourth quarter. The Eagles are driving to take the lead. Suddenly, momentum shifts as Chris Jones strips Saquon Barkley and cuts the Eagles’ wings in the blink of an eye. Not a bad recipe for the big award! Jones is as good of a postseason performer as we have in this game and one of the most intimidating forces in the league. At +6500, why not?
There are hundreds of other creative props available this weekend, from Swiftie Specials to NBA/NFL cross-sport parlays. Like our picks? Think you’ve found a hidden gem that’s guaranteed to hit? Drop your favorite props of the weekend below!