If Brian Gutekunst wants to move up in round one or two, how far can he realistically get?
Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst is no stranger to making moves on the weekend of the NFL Draft. Gutekunst’s very first draft saw him trade all the way back from the 14th pick to #27 overall, then move up again minutes later to #18. Since then, he has been more than happy to wheel and deal his way through the draft and being much more willing to move up than his predecessor, Ted Thompson.
Thompson famously only made a single trade up involving a round one pick. That happened in 2009, when he moved up from round two to select Clay Matthews late in the first round. Gutekunst, on the other hand, has made three draft-day trades to move up in round one in just seven drafts and a fourth, just days before the 2023 Draft, that sent a disgruntled quarterback to New York and moved the team up a few spots.
With Gutey showing a penchant for climbing the board, it’s worth looking at just how far the Packers’ draft capital could get them, either with a move up from their first-round pick at #23 overall or from their second-rounder at #54. Let’s do some math.
Moving up in round 1
If the Packers see a player like Michigan cornerback Will Johnson or Arizona wideout Tetairoa McMillan slide into the teens, it’s not crazy to think that Gutekunst could get aggressive. Green Bay has done the most work on McMillan, at least publicly, of any team in the NFL this spring, and they could be inclined to make a move to get him if he is still on the board in the mid-teens.
Here are how some potential trade scenarios could work out, using the Rich Hill draft trade chart to come up with roughly equivalent values for the teams involved.
Packers get pick #18 & #175, Seahawks get #23 and #87
This one is almost perfect on the chart and Gutekunst would be making a deal with former coworker John Schneider, with whom he has traded up in the past. The Packers traded with Seattle in the first round of the 2018 draft as well, getting pick #18 back that year as well and using it on Jaire Alexander. Green Bay sent picks 27, 76, and 186 for 18 and 248.
In this scenario, the Packers send their third-round pick to move up five spots and get back a pick late in the fifth round to balance things out.
Packers get pick #15, Falcons get #23, #87, #124
This is about as aggressive that the Packers can get without giving up their second-round draft choice. This trade works out evenly on the Rich Hill chart and would find the Packers sending their third- and fourth-round selections to move up eight spots.
Packers get picks #12 & #228, Cowboys get #23 and #54
Here’s the big splash. Green Bay could get all the way up to 12 by packaging their first- and second-round picks together. Gutekunst has never traded away his second-round pick to move up several spots in the first round, however, and this feels like a long shot given his history.
Moves up in round two
Okay, now it’s Friday night. Let’s say the Packers didn’t get a wide receiver in round one and they want to climb the board and grab a player like Emeka Egbuka or Jayden Higgins. Or perhaps they got a fortunate fall from McMillan and want to move up for a defensive tackle or cornerback still on the board. Here’s where they could feasibly reach early on day two.
Packers get pick #39, Bears get #54, #87
Okay, set aside the idea that the Packers would be trading with the Bears for a minute for the sake of the math. If Green Bay is willing to dump their third-round pick for a big move up in round two, the chart says that gets them up 15 spots to just inside the 30s. Maybe that’s enough to get them up for a cornerback like Maxwell Hairston (36th on the consensus draft board) or Shavon Revel (37th), a sliding edge like Donovan Ezeiruaku (32nd), or a defensive tackle who unexpectedly drops towards the middle of round two.
Packers get pick #46, Falcons get #54, #124, #237
To avoid coughing up the third-round selection, let’s look at where the Packers could reach with their 4th-rounder (and a throw-in 7th). That combo takes us up to about 46, which could be a good range for the likes of Higgins (49th), Tyliek Williams (44th), Arkansas edge Landon Jackson (#50), or a sliding cornerback.
Packers get pick #50, Seahawks get #54, #159, #250
Here’s a mini-move up using the Packers’ round 5 and a round 7 pick. The Seahawks have two picks shortly ahead of Green Bay (50 and 52), with the Broncos and Buccaneers at 51 and 53. If Gutey has his eye on someone specific while we’re coming down to the wire in the late 40s and doesn’t want to miss out, here’s a chance to make a small move upwards and ensure that one of those teams a few picks ahead of him don’t snag his guy.
Going for broke: Packers get #34, get #54, #87, #124
If Gutey really wants one of the first two picks in round two, he can get there. It will just cost him his 3rd- and 4th-round selections to make it happen. This is a real long shot, but he made this type of trade in 2022, sending two picks in the 50s (53 and 59) to Minnesota for pick #34 and the right to draft Christian Watson. (Note: that trade was a big loss for the Packers on the value chart.)