The Green Bay Packers (9-4) and Seattle Seahawks (8-5) will face off Sunday night at Lumen Field in what could be a playoff preview between one of the top contenders for a wildcard spot and the current NFC West leaders. In fact, if the season ended today, the Packers would be playing the Seahawks in Seattle in the wildcard round.
Can the Packers — who haven’t won in Seattle since 2008 — bounce back from a hard-fought loss in Detroit last Thursday night and beat the Seahawks in primetime?
Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 15:
JSN and Charbonnet
Coach Matt LaFleur said the Packers did extensive pre-draft work on receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and running back Zach Charbonnet, two of the go-to weapons for the Seahawks entering Sunday night. Smith-Njigba has blossomed into one of the NFL’s top slot targets, while Charbonnet — who is expected to start in place of Kenneth Walker III — is coming off a game in which he produced almost 200 total yards last week. Expect the Seahawks to feed both of them against the Packers. Jeff Hafley’s defense will need answers.
Offensive line bounce back?
The Packers struggled to block the Lions’ backup defensive front last week in Detroit, especially in the run game and against blitzes early. Can the offensive line bounce back against a strong Seahawks front in Seattle? The Seahawks have five pass-rushers with 30 or more pressures, and they’ve stuffed the run over the last four weeks. Lumen Field will be loud. The Packers need to be much better up front — both in terms of opening holes for Josh Jacobs and protecting Jordan Love — to beat the Seahawks on Sunday night.
Love vs. ascending defense
Jordan Love is first in yards per attempt, second in EPA/play and third in passer rating over the last four games. The Seahawks defense, meanwhile, is No. 1 in EPA/dropback over the same timeframe. Love is finally healthy, and he’s been more accurate and more mobile since the bye. The Seahawks are giving up just 15.5 points per game over a stretch against Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray (twice) and Aaron Rodgers. This is a good test for both — can Love keep playing at a high level against an ascending defense, or will the Seahawks prove their might defensively?
Pass-rush pressure
Geno Smith is completing 76.4 percent of his passes from clean pockets this season — only three quarterbacks have been better. Also, no quarterback has been under more pressure this season than Smith, who has 200 dropbacks under pressure. He’s thrown 10 picks against pressure. The Packers must pressure Smith on Sunday night. Seattle’s offensive line didn’t give up a sack last week but has mostly struggled to protect the passer this season. The weak points appear to be on the right side of the line. The Packers must take advantage. This would be a good time to get the four-man pass-rush going.
Big test for CBs
The Packers will be without Jaire Alexander and Javon Bullard, two preferred starters at cornerback. More than likely, Keisean Nixon will move into the slot with Carrington Valentine and Eric Stokes handling the perimeter against Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The Seahawks are a pass-happy offense, and Geno Smith is an experienced and accurate passer. Can the Packers cornerbacks hold up in coverage? Surviving might require a big performance up front from the pass-rush.
Prediction: Packers 27, Seahawks 24 (7-6)
The Packers were one play away from beating the Lions in Detroit last Thursday night, so internal belief in going into Seattle and winning should be high, especially coming off the mini-bye and considering Jordan Love’s play over the last month. Then again, the Seahawks have won four straight games, have playmakers all over on offense and can win battles up front defensively with a deep pass-rushing core. Throw in a playoff-like atmosphere in Seattle, where the Packers haven’t won since 2008, and the challenge is clear. This game feels like a tossup. So, what should you do when you see a tossup? Go with the prediction you want. In what could be a back-and-forth contest, I think Love makes one big play and the defense pressures Geno Smith in one big moment to help the Packers escape with a narrow (but very important) win.