The Green Bay Packers (11-6) are going on the road to play the Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) in the NFC Wild Card Round on Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field.
The playoff showdown will feature two of the best teams in terms of takeaways and turnover differential in 2024. And one of the team is very good situationally.
Football is a complicated game, but finding the reasons for winning individual matchups between teams each week is often a straightforward exercise. What wins games? Excellent quarterback play, winning the line of scrimmage, taking care of the football and taking it away, controlling the important situations and overcoming or taking advantage of the injury situation.
So, who has the edge in terms of turnovers and the game’s big situations?
Here are some relevant numbers:
| Packers | Eagles | |
| Takeaways | 31 (4th) | 26 (6th) |
| Interceptions | 17 (3rd) | 13 (12th) |
| Fumbles recovered | 14 (3rd) | 12 (4th) |
| Giveaways | 19 (11th) | 15 (6th) |
| Interceptions thrown | 11 (11th) | 6 (3rd) |
| Fumbles lost | 8 (14th) | 9 (17th) |
| Turnover differential | +12 (3rd) | +11 (6th) |
| W-L when winning turnover battle | 9-1 | 8-0 |
| Defensive TDs | 1 | 1 |
| Third down % (offense) | 39.5 (16th) | 41.7 (10th) |
| Third down % (defense) | 37.5 (12th) | 35.5 (3rd) |
| Third down passer rating | 96.4 (11th) | 99.2 (10th) |
| Red zone TD% (offense) | 59.4 (10th) | 57.4 (13th) |
| Red zone TD% (defense) | 60.0 (20th) | 50.0 (5th) |
| Red zone TD passes | 21 | 14 |
| Fourth down % (offense) | 50.0 (23rd) | 70.4 (4th) |
| Fourth down % (defense) | 60.0 (20th) | 63.3 (24th) |
| Points off turnovers | 117 (2nd) | 104 (3rd) |
It’s easy to see how important turnovers are going to be to determining the winner of this game. Both teams thrived on taking the ball away and scoring points off turnovers.
But taking the ball away isn’t going to be easy work. Jordan Love hasn’t thrown an interception since Nov. 17 and didn’t lose a single fumble. Jalen Hurts threw a pair of interceptions in the opener but threw just three over his final 14 games. These teams win the ball — and win a lot of games — because they take care of it and force other teams into mistakes.
The Packers lost six games but had at least one takeaway in five of the six losses, including three takeaways against the Eagles in Brazil and three more in a home loss to the Vikings. So getting turnovers isn’t a sure-fire way for the Packers to win one of these big games. But it almost has to factor in.
The Eagles turned the ball over eight times in their first four games but had just seven total turnovers across their final 13 games — a stretch in which Philadelphia went 12-1. Nine times, the Eagles didn’t have a turnover. They were only 3-2 when not securing a takeaway.
Incredibly, the Eagles lost a shootout to the Washington Commanders when getting five takeaways.
Situationally, the Eagles are the better team. No way around it. They finished top 10 in the NFL in third down offense, third down defense and red-zone defense. And they were among the league leaders in fourth down conversions. The only situation where the Eagles might be lacking is red-zone offense, but even then they ranked 13th in scoring touchdowns inside the 20. Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts make the Eagles a tough team in short yardage.
But don’t count out the Packers situationally. The red zone offense came alive down the stretch, in large part due to Josh Jacobs’ dominance inside the 10-yard line. He is incredible at finding just enough space to get into the end zone against stacked boxes. Love’s ability to extend plays and create off-schedule gives the Packers a fighting chance in the passing game in the confined spaces of the red zone, too.
Third down looks like a potential issue. The Packers were inconsistent converting on third down despite Love’s willingness to always throw beyond the sticks. Penalties and drops played a big factor in the inconsistency. The Eagles are only going to make conversions more difficult with an aggressive coverage scheme and a front four that can pressure without blitzing.
On fourth down, the Eagles use the “Tush Push” to convert short-yardage opportunities. The Packers were 3-for-3 using Tucker Kraft on a modified version of the play. It’s possible one of the teams could bust out a wrinkle on the play at some point on Sunday.
As an underdog on the road, the Packers must win the ball. In last year’s wildcard game in Dallas, the Packers got an early takeaway that was converted into a touchdown (making the lead 14-0) and a pick-six before the half. Can Jeff Hafley’s defense — that has lived off taking the ball away in 2024 — give the Packers a couple of short fields and scoring opportunities with takeaways on Sunday?