Digging into the 4th down call.
Before we fully move on to the Week 18 game, I wanted to take one last look back at the Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings game from this past weekend — specifically, the 4th down incomplete pass to Jayden Reed. We’re not getting into the decision-making or anything like that (I’m totally fine with the decision and the call): we’re just getting into the Xs and Os.
Let’s set it up first.
With 7:34 remaining in the 2nd quarter, the Packers are down 7-3, facing 4th & 2 from the Vikings 23 yard line. Their previous drive ended with a 22 yard field goal on 4th & 3 (where I also believe they should have gone for it, but that’s neither here nor there). The Vikings then put together a 9 play, 77 yard touchdown drive.
The Packers went with a quick-game staple: Dragon Lion. It’s two quick-game staples, one to each side, with the quarterback deciding on what side of the field to attack.
In the above image, Dragon (slant/flat) is on the right and Lion (two slants) is on the left, with Y Over coming from the right. You can see the indicator for the QB above the concept: if MFO (Middle Field Open), read Lion. If MFC (Middle Field Closed), read Dragon.
The alignment is different this play – the sides are swapped for the concept and the Y Over is on the Lion side – but it’s the same concept. Based on how Kraft is running this, it doesn’t look like the Y Over route: it starts like an Over, then bends upfield. Perhaps as a second-reaction option. We’re not really focusing on that here, but I did want to make a note of it.
The alignment of the single-high safety marks this as Middle Field Closed, which would have Jordan Love reading the Dragon concept. A glance to that side shows a favorable look for this call, with the cornerback over Romeo Doubs [87] head-up and shading to the outside shoulder. The man who looks likely to pick up Emanuel Wilson [31] from the backfield (Blake Cashman [51]) has inside leverage on Wilson.
The read on this is Doubs as the #1 and Wilson as the #2. Love is looking down the middle of the field to confirm he’s getting the coverage he thinks he’s getting, then setting to throw. He needs the flat defender to clear the throwing lane, then hit the slant. Easy peasy.
As they like to do, the Vikings change the picture to that side post-snap. Andrew Van Ginkel [43], originally aligned as a rusher off the edge, releases to the flat to pick up Wilson, while Cashman shuffles to the Dragon side.
That muddies the water on the read for Love. Instead of Cashman buzzing out from the middle, Van Ginkel is able to pick up the flat from a different angle, allowing him to stay in the throwing lane longer than Cashman. So you’ve got a slightly later throw than you thought, with a linebacker who is shuffling over to close the window.
However, Cashman shuffling over tells Love that he won’t be in the middle of the field. With Tucker Kraft [85] clearing the middle, he knows he should have Jayden Reed [11] on the inside slant on Lion.
As a reminder, the read on Lion would be the inside man (Reed) as the #1 and the outside man (Dontayvion Wicks [13]) as the #2. This is supposed to be a 3 step drop to either side, so it’s not the cleanest read for Love, but working back to Reed is the right progression, as well as the easiest one from a footwork perspective.
Love works back to the middle, finds Reed and fires. The throw is a little out in front of Reed (more on that in a minute), but it’s in a spot where Reed can get his hands on it.
Unfortunately, he can’t pull it in and the ball falls harmlessly to the turf.
One additional note on the throw. To me, it almost looks like Reed slows down a bit just before the throw, then has to speed up again to get to the throw, but that could just be my eyes playing tricks on me. So you can join me in my descent into madness without having to hit the “replay video” button a bunch of times, I took the snap to the end of the play and looped it 6 times for this next video. Hit play, watch it 6 times and watch the pace on Jayden Reed’s route, specifically as the ball is being released. Then maybe read some Sutter Cane.
Albums listened to: Ride – Going Blank Again