Digging into a couple plays that could have swung the tide for the Packers
In every close game, there are a couple of plays that can swing the game in either direction. Today, I wanted to take a look at a couple of deep concepts that could have swung the tide for the Packers, both occurring in the 4th quarter.
Play 1: 2nd & 13, 14:08 remaining in the 4th quarter
At this point, the Packers had not yet started their furious comeback attempt. It was 27-10 and the Packers would end up punting on 4th and 23 to end the drive.
The Packers are in 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR), with Jordan Love [10] under center. They start in a 3×1 set, but send Bo Melton [80] in jet motion, snapping the ball after he crosses Rasheed Walker [63]. The Packers are running their Middle Read Dagger concept from the left and combining it with a deep comeback from Romeo Doubs [87] on the the right.
Middle Read Dagger is a core passing concept for the Packers. Dagger is a passing concept that has been around forever. It’s a two-man combo, with the inside man running a vertical/thru route and the outside man running a deep in-cutting route behind it. The idea is to clear the middle of the field with the vertical route, then attack the middle with the in-cutter.
Middle Read takes that and tweaks it ever-so-slightly. It gives the vertical man an option at the top of his route depending on the safety alignment. If the defense is playing with a two-high alignment, the receiver will bend the route to a skinny post, splitting the safeties. If the defense is playing with a single-high alignment, he’ll cross the face of the safety.
Against a single-high alignment – like we’re seeing in this play – sometimes the receiver will cut the route a little more horizontally. If they’re looking to hit an explosive off of it, the receiver will cut on more of an angle, getting vertical across the face of the safety.
That’s what the Packers are doing here. Paired with the comeback from Doubs, it plays out a bit like the fabled Mills/Fox 2 XY Hook Concept: a concept popularized by Bill Walsh and weaponized by Steve Spurrier.
On this play, it looks like Love is reading Doubs first, then working back to Reed on the vertical route, then back to Melton on the in-cutter.
Doubs is bracketed, so Love would move off of that and look to Reed. With the boundary defender playing over the top of Doubs, the deep right portion of the field is open, so Love would hitch and throw to Reed. Easy peasy.
Unfortunately, he never gets the chance. The Vikings send a five man rush, but not the five you think. Love comes off the play action to find a man in his face, somehow makes him miss and ends up dirting the ball in the direction of Doubs.
On the protection, the Packers are sliding left and leaving Tucker Kraft [85] to kick out on the right. Emanuel Wilson [31] ls looking to pick up Blake Cashman [51], who looks like he’ll be shooting the B gap. Cashman takes a step toward the line, then backs out.
The Vikings attack the right side of the line by angling Andrew Van Ginkle [43] to Zach Tom’s [50] inside shoulder, then running Ivan Pace [0] off Van Ginkel’s hip. With Kraft [85] picking up the outside rush from Harrison Smith [22], Pace is left with a free run at Love. Wilson recovers enough to get a slight shove, but the pocket is breaking down at that point.
If you’re dodging a rusher before you get to the top of your drop, it’s not a great sign for how the play will end.
Play 2: 1st & 10, 4:37 remaining in the 4th quarter
This was the first play in the Packers’ final drive of the game. They had scored a touchdown with 6:12 remaining in the game to bring the score to 27-18, then forced the Vikings to punt. They took over at their own 38.
The Packers ended up scoring a touchdown on this drive, but it took them a little over 2 minutes, scoring a touchdown with 2:18 left in the game. They still had a shot to get another drive at that point, but they would have had more time to work with – and a better chance at getting the ball back – if they had hit on this.
Once again, the Packers are in 11 personnel in a 3×1 set. No motion or shifts this time. The Packers have a stack on the left, with Jayden Reed at the point and Dontayvion Wicks [13] underneath.
For their routes, Reed is running vertically. Against a two-high look, he bends as if he’s splitting them. Wicks takes an inside release against his Shaquill Griffin [1] and is immediately released. I believe Griffin sees that release and, combined with the release from Reed, thinks Wicks will be running an in-cutter. Instead, Wicks releases vertically up the left sideline. With Cam Bynum [24] following Reed to the middle of the field, Wicks is wide open and throws up his hand to let everyone know that he is.
Love is looking down the middle of the field to start and it seems like he’s going to be throwing to Reed. When he hits the back foot, he looks ready to rip this, but Harrison Smith is also turned to the middle, causing Love to pull the ball down.
With Griffin following Reed, Love knows that there’s no one over the top of Wicks on the left. However, at this point, Dallas Turner [15] causes Love to move in the pocket. Love shifts and looks ready to unleash a throw to Wicks, but Turner has disengaged and Jonathan Greenard [58] is released off the edge.
Love tries to avoid Greenard, but can’t do it and ends up getting sacked.
With another half-second, Love would have been able to work over to Wicks and hit him for a big gain. Instead, it’s an 8-yard loss to start off a big drive. As I said, they ended up scoring on this drive, but it took another 2 minutes to do it. A big gain here would have been huge for their chances. Instead, it’s a couple of “what could have been” moments.
Albums listened to: My Bloody Valentine – Isn’t Anything; Basement Revolver – Heavy Eyes; Julie – My Anti-Aircraft Friend