Looking at some plays the Packers could run against the Eagles in the Wild Card round
By now, we all know that Matt LaFleur has had a pretty dicey year when it came to his aggressiveness on 4th down. It has been an odd turn for a guy who had been among the league leaders when it came to 4th down decision-making for most of his career.
But we’re not really here to talk about that, mainly because it was already covered extremely well by our own Tex Western. Instead, in this space, we’re here to talk about ways LaFleur could attack the Eagles on 4th down in this game. Because the regular season is over: the Packers are the 7 seed and will need to take a more aggressive approach on 4th down if they want to keep playing this season.
It won’t be easy against the Eagles. They’re a good defense overall – #1 in the league, per FTN’s DVOA – and that shows up on 4th & short as well. Per NFL Pro, the Eagles are 3rd in the league in defensive EPA per Play on 4th & short (where “short” is defined as 1-2 yards), at -0.69 EPA Per Play in these situations. They rank 4th on rushing attempts (-0.46 EPA/play) and 8th on passing attempts (-0.97 EPA/play).
The Packers have not been a great 4th down team, coming in as the 14th ranked team in the league on 4th and short (+0.50 EPA/play). They’re 24th on rushing attempts (-0.28 EPA/play) and 9th on passing attempts (+1.85 EPA/play).
Today, we’re going to help them to build out their attack. I know they have some killer plays, but it couldn’t hurt to throw in a couple more. I went through all the 4th down attempts against the Eagles this year and found a couple I thought could work well for the Packers, along with one they’ll probably never run but is fun to draw up.
Play 1: PA Insert Drive
We just looked at the EPA numbers above, which showed the Eagles are weaker against the pass on 4th down and the Packers are stronger, so let’s start there. The Jaguars picked up a 1st down on this nifty little concept.
They’re in 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR), with a WR split out to either side. Before the snap, the WR on the left motions down into an insert position under the line, giving a heavy look on the left. That gets the defense overloaded on the left.
At the snap, Trevor Lawrence sells the playfake while the receivers release. From the left, the insert receiver releases on an intermediate crossing route while the outside receiver releases underneath.
Between the overloaded defense and the linebackers pulled up on the threat of a run up the gut, there’s room on the right that the two receivers release into, and Lawrence hits one for a 1st down.
I’m taking that and tweaking it slightly for the Packers, adding in another option if the crossers aren’t open. Given the formation and the releases of the receivers, I thought it made sense to add an Arches route for Tucker Kraft. If the middle of the field gets cleared with defenders running with the crossing routes, we’ll just release Kraft into that space. It gives Love an option to work back to if the crossers are locked up. We’ve seen the Packers run Arches on 3rd down, so adding that in here feels like something they could easily run.
Play 2: Zone Read
We know the Packers have this in their playbook, but we haven’t seen them trot it out this year. At least, we haven’t seen Love pull the ball (or the plays they called aren’t true Zone Reads).
On a Zone Read, the QB is in shotgun with an RB split to this side. On this rep from the Bucs, the running back is set to Baker Mayfield’s right. Mayfield puts the ball into the stomach of the RB and reads the defensive end. If the end stays in place on the line, Mayfield gives the ball to the RB on a run up the middle. If the end crashes to take away the run – as he does here – the QB pulls the ball and scoots around the edge, past the place the defensive end just vacated.
We’re not getting too crazy here. We’re just calling Zone Read. There’s a version of this we’ve seen with Willis that becomes a triple option, but let’s just stay with this for now.
Play 3: The Sneak Variations
No 4th & short package is complete without a QB sneak. While the simple sneak will do, there are other variations you can work in.
For me, if I’m running sneak, I want to get to the line quickly. That means having a clear “go” plan on 3rd down. If that 3rd down play gets us within a yard of a 1st down, everyone rush up to the line and be ready to catch them off-guard with a quick sneak. That will also keep their defensive personnel on the field, which means you may get a LB in the middle instead of the two big men the Eagles have on the line.
Of course, there are other ways to keep an defense off-balance when coming to the line for a sneak. I enjoyed what the Ravens did on this front. They broke the huddle quickly and rushed to the line. That left the defense scrambling to get in position, only to find that the TE (Mark Andrews) was under center.
We know that the Packers have made use of motioning Tucker Kraft under center then quick-snapping as a way to do a surprise sneak, but the approach above is another one they could add to their approach.
Which leads me to my final Sneak Variation of the day: a TE pop pass. This might be a tough one to install against the Eagles, but they haven’t seen one of these on 4th down yet – and the Packers certainly haven’t run one – so now may be the time to unleash it.
There are different versions of this over the years, but the most recent example came at the end of Duke’s Mayo Bowl, with the Minnesota Golden Gophers sealing their victory – and a mayonnaise shower for their coach – with this play. It’s pretty simple. Line up as if you’re going to sneak, get the packed down to the line, then raise up and throw to a TE who is releasing vertically.
In the clip above, the Virginia Tech Hokies are completely packing the line with no one back deep. That’s where this can get a little tricky, as the Eagles usually keep a single-high safety, playing extremely deep as the last line of defense. Even if you fool them up front, that safety is lurking and looking to drive if anyone leaks out.
Which isn’t to say they always do that. On a handful of occasions this year, we’ve seen that defense pack the line with no one back deep.
They’re very physical up front so even against this look, getting a clean release by a receiver on the edge could prove to be difficult. But I’ve got 3 ways the Packers could potentially run this. I will also say that, with two receivers releasing and angling out, there are ways to get this to work even against a single-high safety.
The first way is standard: Love is the QB, fake the sneak, throw the pop pass. This is the least complicated because you have your starting QB under center. If the spacing is tight with coverage, you’ve got the best guy to throw a ball.
The next one takes that idea but works in a little more tricky, while staying within what the Packers have shown this season. We’re getting Tucker Kraft under center then quick-snapping to a pop pass.
The downsides are that you don’t have your QB handling the ball and you also take your most physical receiver off the line. However, it plays off a well-established tendency for the Packers this season, which means we can expect the Eagles to look to pack the inside of the line once Kraft goes in motion and gets near the center position.
Lastly, we’re going a little outside the box while still staying within our same formation. We’re trotting out Malik Willis and running this out of a 2 QB look.
The fun thing with this is the options we’ve got off of it. Depending on the Eagles alignment – and how the week in practice went for the Packers – here are the different options we could have:
- Quick-snap and have Love sneak it if the middle of the line is soft
- Snap and have Love hit the TE pop pass
- Pitch to Willis to the right and hit Jacobs in the flat
- Pitch to Willis who targets a TE downfield
- Snap between Love’s legs to Willis, who rushes the line and throws a jump-pass to a TE (this one feels particularly unlikely, but it’s good to have options)
Are any of these realistic? Not really, but it sure is fun to dream.
Albums listened to: Wisp – Pandora; Phoebe Bridgers – Copycat Killer; Japandroids – Fate & Alcohol