When it comes to seeding, you reap what you sow.
The Green Bay Packers just lost to the Minnesota Vikings and, in turn, lost their ability to control the 6th seed in the NFC.
With a playoff spot locked up, most would think that there wasn’t much on the line during yesterday’s matchup, but that isn’t entirely the case. The Packers have dropped from the 6th seed to the 7th within the NFC and need a little help to get back up.
Last night, the Washington Commanders took down the Atlanta Falcons in overtime. This means the Commies have locked in a playoff spot and taken over the Packers’ place in the 6th seed. Due to not playing directly against the Packers, there is a bit of weirdness with the tiebreaker. While both teams have 11-5 records, Washington has a better record within the NFC.
In order to move back up to #6, the Packers need to win and the Commies need to lose. It’s as simple as that.
According to the folks over at Fanduel, the Packers are favored against the division rival Chicago Bears by 9.5 points. The last time the two teams played, Green Bay with a 6-3 record was favored by 5.5 over the 4-5 Chicago team that was on a 3 game losing streak. You may remember that the game came down to the last-second heroics of KARL BROOKS and a blocked chip-shot field goal.
As for the battle in the NFC East, those same oddsmakers have the Commies over the Dallas Cowboys by three. With the game happening in JerruhWorld, this puts Dallas in an even bigger theoretical hole. The 7-9 Boys being dogs in their own house doesn’t look good for the Packers’ chance at the 6th seed.
This whole discussion about seeding boils down to this: who do the Packers play in the first round?
The Detroit Lions play on Monday Night Football against the San Francisco 49ers (Lions are currently favored by 3.5), but that doesn’t really change their NFC seeding. What matters to them is their game against the Vikings next week. Whomever wins that game will be the 1st seed in the NFC and the loser will be 5th. Neither of these teams will see the Packers in the first round.
If the Pack finish the season with the 7th seed, they will have to go to the east coast to take on the locked-in 2nd seeded Philadelphia Eagles. After the ice-skating Brazil game in week 1, it’s hard to say if there’s much historical data to go off. Jalen Hurts is currently in concussion protocol, but is expected to be available for the playoffs.
Should the 6th seed still be within reach, the Packers would most likely travel to the West coast to take on the NFC West-winning LA Rams.
However, there is actually a small chance that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win their division and earn the #3 seed over the Rams. If the Packers grab the 6th seed, the Seahawks win, and the Buccaneers win, then Tampa would be the Wild Card round opponent. In this scenario, everyone the Packers need to win except the Cowboys are currently favored in their respective matches.
If you’re the type of fan who thinks “You have to beat the good teams eventually, might as well start now” then you’re cheering for Washington to take the 6th seed. If you’re the type of fan who wants an easier road through the playoffs, then you’re cheering for the Cowboys.
Personally, I’m the 2nd type but…cheering for the Cowboys is gross.