Maggie’s Pre-Game Six Pack – 2024 Week 4

The 3-0 Vikings travel to Lambeau Field to take on the 2-1 Packers in Green Bay’s first divisional matchup of the season. Per the dope sheet, this is the first time the Packers don’t play an NFC North opponent until Week 4 or later since 2017. Here are six things to keep in mind going into the divisional clash. 

1. Jonesing to Return

This one is going to hurt. Aaron Jones will make his return to Lambeau Field on Sunday wearing purple and running out of the visitor’s tunnel. He’s had a strong start to his 2024 season, rushing for 228 yards and one touchdown, averaging 5.4 yards per carry, and adding another 97 yards with one score through the air. On the ground, the Vikings rank 14th in attempts and 13th in yards. They’re 10th in yards per attempt, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Green Bay’s defense ranks 24th in the league and allows 4.7 yards per attempt. 

While Jones has been impressive, I’m not sure anyone could have predicted the success of Green Bay’s run game through three weeks. The Packers rank first in both attempts (111) and yards (612), and are second in yards per attempt, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. The run game has certainly been the focal point for the offense under Malik Willis. It’ll be interesting to see how the run game trends when Jordan Love is back under center, which could be as early as Sunday.

The Vikings defense is also pretty stout against the run, ranking 2nd in the league in attempts and yards. Minnesota is only giving up 3.6 yards on the ground per attempt. Josh Jacobs (4.5ypa) and Emanuel Wilson (5.0ypa) will have their work cut out for them in the run game on Sunday. 

2. Being Explosive

The Packers currently lead the NFL in explosive play rates with 14.1%. An explosive play is a run of 10-plus yards or a passing play of 20-plus yards. The Vikings are in the top ten with 10.2%. 

These are two high-powered offenses that have the ability to change the trajectory of the game in one play. The Vikings rank third in the NFL in points for and are averaging 28.3 points per game. Green Bay isn’t terribly far behind, ranking seventh in points for. More on that in a bit. 

The Packers have put up over 375 yards of offense in each of their first three games, while the Vikings are averaging 329 yards per contest and have scored 23 or more points each week. Minnesota leads the league with eight passing touchdowns through three games. Justin Jefferson and Jalen Nailor both have three touchdowns each. No Packers player has more than one receiving touchdown. Both teams will be able to score points on Sunday. This likely comes down to who makes fewer mistakes and capitalizes on big play opportunities. (For what it’s worth, Green Bay leads the league in turnover differential and is plus-seven, while the Vikings are plus-two). 

3. What a Rush

After a slow start to the season, the Packers teed off against the Titans, tallying eight sacks in Nashville. Devonte Wyatt currently leads the team with three sacks, but eight other players have gotten involved for at least a half sack or more. 

Historically, Green Bay’s pass rush has done well against the Vikings. Preston Smith (who has two sacks this season) has six sacks in his last six games against Minnesota, and his career 8.5 sacks against the Vikings are his most against a single opponent. Kenny Clark hasn’t registered a sack or quarterback hit yet this year, but like Smith, he plays well against Minnesota. Clark has eight career sacks against the Vikings, the most against a single opponent for him, too. 

Sam Darnold has taken eight sacks in three games, so opportunities to generate pressure will be there. But Darnold is also playing incredibly well through three weeks. He’s averaging a 67.9% completion percentage and has thrown eight touchdowns with only two interceptions for a passer rating of 117.3. Both the passer rating and completion percentage are career highs. 

Like Will Levis, Darnold doesn’t pose the same kind of rushing threat that Jalen Hurts and Anthony Richardson did early in the year. If the Packers can bring pressure, they can increase their chances of leaving Lambeau Field with a victory. 

4. LaFleur vs Flores

It doesn’t get much better than the chess match between Matt LaFleur and Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Flores enters his second year with Minnesota after his unit finished 13th in points against in 2023, allowing an average of 21.3 points per game. So far this year, the Vikings rank second in points against, allowing only 10 points per game. They’re a top 10 defense in third and fourth down conversions, and the seventh ranked defense in red zone stops, allowing touchdowns on just three of nine trips this season. 

LaFleur’s offense has struggled in the red zone and ranks 29th in the league, scoring touchdowns on only three out of 11 trips. But, thanks to those explosive plays we talked about earlier, the Packers are still putting up an average of 25 points per game. 

It’s possible that no weapon on offense makes LaFleur’s unit go quite like Jayden Reed. He’s the only player with multiple touchdowns this season and has 286 scrimmage yards in three games. Per the dope sheet, Reed “posted 10 catches for 172 yards (17.2 avg.) and two TDs last season in two games versus Minnesota, becoming the first NFL player to record 10-plus catches, 150-plus receiving yards and multiple TD catches against the Vikings as a rookie.”

Reed has five rushing attempts this season. He’s scored one touchdown and picked up four first downs in those attempts, giving him a 100% success rate rushing the football. He’s averaging 17.8 yards per attempt on rushing plays. When the ball is in Reed’s hands, good things happen, and he’ll be the player Flores’ defense most needs to account for on Sunday. 

5. Edging In Front

Rookie inside linebacker Edgerrin Cooper has only played 34 defensive snaps so far this season, but what he’s put on tape already is certainly deserving of more playing time. Cooper has one pass defensed and a half sack through three weeks plus nine total tackles. While he hasn’t played enough to earn a position rank from Pro Football Focus, he posts an elite pass rush grade of 90.8 in his limited snaps, with an overall grade of 74.1. For reference, the “average” grade from PFF is a 60, so that means Cooper is grading out really well in his early looks. 

Erlc Wilson has only played in 31 defensive snaps, so he’s also excluded from an inside linebacker position rank, but in his limited sample size, he’d be Green Bay’s highest graded defender with an elite score of 92.1. 

For context, Isaiah McDuffie ranks 64th out of 77 eligible linebackers with a grade of 49.0 in 166 defensive snaps, and Quay Walker sits at 75th out of 77 with a grade of 40.7 on 186 defensive snaps. Both McDuffie’s and Walker’s strongest grades come in pass rush, earning a 58.5 and 62.2, respectively. 

Of course, more snaps equals more opportunities to make mistakes, so these grades aren’t meant as an indictment on Green Bay’s starting linebackers, but they do help to illustrate Cooper’s and Wilson’s effectiveness in their limited looks. Expect Cooper especially to start earning more opportunities as a starter as the season progresses. 

6. Another Chapter in the Rivalry

When the Packers and Vikings have faced off recently, it’s been a lopsided contest. In each of the last five contests between the NFC North rivals, the winning team has won by at least 14 points. Green Bay holds a slight edge winning three of the last five. The foes have split the regular-season series for the last four seasons, which is the longest stretch in the rivalry’s history.

Per the dope sheet, since the NFC North realignment in 2002, the Packers (12) and Vikings (5) have accounted for 17 of the 22 NFC North titles. All-time, Green Bay leads the series 66-58-3 over Minnesota. 

This year’s Packers team excels at taking the ball away and running the football. The Vikings excel in both scoring points, limiting opposing teams from scoring points, and defending against the run. LaFleur is 6-4 against the Vikings while Minnesota Head Coach Kevin O’Connell is 2-2 against Green Bay. It’s sure to be a close one on Sunday, and it’ll help settle the debate as to who’s the current frontrunner in the NFC North (sorry, Lions).