Jacobs and his fellow backs are a great fit for Matt LaFleur’s changing schematic tendencies
The Packers’ ground game has a different feel this year than in the past. For most of Matt LaFleur’s tenure in Green Bay, the Packers’ running game has been defined by Aaron Jones’ slashing speed, his willowy form and explosive burst lending itself well to LaFleur’s outside zone schemes.
But LaFleur’s offensive tendencies have trended slightly away from his zone origins over the last few years, and late the Aaron Jones era in Green Bay, Jones was being used much more as an inside runner than he was early on. According to Pro Football Focus, Jones ran inside on a little more than 55% of his carries in 2023, the highest by far of the LaFleur era. The Packers were also using Jones on more gap scheme runs than previously. PFF’s data, imperfect though it may be, points to Jones taking gap scheme carries on 33.89% of his runs last year, the highest rate of the LaFleur era and just the second time since 2019 that he cracked 30%.
If that was the overall trend for LaFleur’s offense — less zone, more inside — the Packers’ muted interest in Aaron Jones makes a bit more sense. But even if Jones could have succeeded in LaFleur’s revamped attack, Josh Jacobs fits even better.
Jacobs is a running back’s running back. He doesn’t split out wide or motion into the slot. He doesn’t rely on guile or shiftiness to get his yards, at least not primarily. He lines up in the backfield, takes the handoff, and, in the spirit of Marshawn Lynch, tries to run through somebody’s face.
So far this year, Jacobs’ inside/outside splits are almost identical to what we saw from Jones in 2023. Jones ran inside on 55.8% of his carries last season; this year, Jacobs is going inside on 55.1% of his carries. What’s more, Jacobs’ gap scheme runs have spiked. While Jones ran gap plays only about 33% of the time, Jacobs does the same on about 47% of his carries.
Is it working? Well, Jacobs’ raw rushing totals seem to say so. As of a couple of weeks ago, he was on pace for one of the best rushing seasons in recent Packers history, and not much has changed in the intervening weeks.
But digging deeper into the numbers, the Packers running game as a whole appears to be thriving with this kind of approach. Jacobs is obviously a more power-oriented back, but the entire Packers’ backfield appears to be built that way now, with Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks bringing their own hard-charging styles to the ground game. Even MarShawn Lloyd fits that mold, whenever we see him again.
Together, this group has produced 237 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. That’s the best team total of the LaFleur era and the first time they’ve cracked 200 yards in that stat under LaFleur.
Equally important to the player/scheme fit is avoiding negative plays. Conspicuously absent from this year’s backfield is AJ Dillon who, for all his off-field merits, was a negative presence in the running game for the past few years. In 2022 and 2023 combined, Dillon alone produced -99 RYOE, including -64 RYOE in2023 alone — a negative impact significant enough to pull the entire team into negative territory for the year in that statistical category.
But this isn’t about Dillon, it’s about what’s working for the 2024 Packers. And between an improved scheme fit and better results up and down the depth chart, the Packers’ running backs are putting together an excellent season.