Reed’s strengths are down the field, not on manufactured touches
Every coach is going to have those pet plays they like to go to that eventually annoy the fanbase. For Mike McCarthy, it was Slant/Flat. For Paul Chryst, it was running Power in short-yardage — pulling that guard almost every time. As fans, familiarity is built up, and as the saying goes: familiarity breeds contempt.
And that brings us to the Jayden Reed gadget plays. There’s no technical definition for what is and is not a gadget play, but you know them when you see them. Whatever could be classified as a “manufactured touch” for a receiver. End arounds, reverses, screens, bubble screens, touch passes, etc. Most teams nowadays have some offensive weapon they like to get these touches to, and for Green Bay, that player has become Jayden Reed. But they’re not really working, at least not anymore.
Early this season, Reed’s production was pretty impressive, though mostly through the air. Through five weeks, Reed had amassed 21 catches for 414 yards and two touchdowns, good for a season-long pace of 71 catches for 1,408 yards and 7 touchdowns. That is true star-level production. Intermixed with that was the occasional rushing attempt as well. Reed had two carries in both Malik Willis starts against Indianapolis and Tennessee, and ripped off a 33-yard touchdown in the opener against Philadelphia.
After the Rams game in Week 5, though, Reed has been quieter, eclipsing eighty receiving yards just once the remainder of the season. Famously, Reed received only one target against the Lions in the Packers’ 34-31 loss on December 5th. In the four games since that one, Reed has seen six, four, four, and two targets, but also seven total rushing attempts, which exceeds his total from the prior two months combined.
Since the Rams game in week five, the Reed rushing attempts have been a disaster. He is averaging a perfectly fine 4.4 yards per carry, but his EPA/rush is an abysmal -0.76. Even if the fumble against Chicago had been removed entirely because of how much it had impacted the sample (-4.91 EPA), Reed would still have been at -0.35 EPA/rush since Week 6. It’s not solely the rushing attempts either though. Reed has not excelled in the quick game either. 40% of Reed’s drops this season have come on throws behind the line of scrimmage. There have been multiple instances of Reed getting alligator arms on bubble screens anticipating contact when it’s not there. On plays that are designed to be ‘extensions of the run game,’ you just can’t have drops, and a 15% drop rate on those plays just isn’t going to work. Reed’s efficiency on these is a fine though unspectacular at just 4.8 yards per target. EPA is more damning, showing the average Reed screen target is worth -0.16 EPA/target.
With middling yardage efficiency, the fact that Reed has ball security issues makes this role rather untenable for him. The fumbles plus drop issues bleed out what little efficiency these plays have offered, and are why the EPA numbers really look poor.
Reed is not your typical slot receiver profile. He’s not someone you scheme up quick looks for and let his YAC ability take over. His success predominantly comes through stretching the field, either vertically or horizontally on big crossers. He’s generated more than 20 EPA this season on in-breakers and vertical routes. The problem with these, though, is they can’t be manufactured. These types of touches exist within the context of the offense and what the defense cedes to you. You can’t just throw four vertical shots or four big crossers to Jayden Reed every game to get him involved. The Packers want to get Jayden Reed involved in the offense, but it doesn’t appear his particular strengths lie within the confines of that role.