Too much is unknown about a potential restructure to fall on one side or the other of this debate
Everyone other than me seems to have a take on whether cornerback Jaire Alexander will be back with the Green Bay Packers. I’m just not sold on either side of the debate.
Yes, the fact that Alexander has only played 34 games over the last four seasons — about half of the games available — is less than ideal. I understand that. To compare his situation with former left tackle David Bakhtiari’s seems a little odd to me, though.
Bakhtiari played 13 games over three seasons because of one (1) particular knee injury. In Alexander’s case, I’m not sure how a shoulder injury that cost him games in 2021 is supposed to correlate to a PCL injury to his knee in 2024. I’m no doctor, but I doubt there’s a case to be made that these injuries are somehow tied together.
What I do know, though, is that the Packers’ defense plays better when Alexander is on the field. Recently, there’s been a trend to credit the play of outside cornerbacks Carrington Valentine (who I think is playing well) and Eric Stokes (who I think is playing less well) because of their yards allowed stats. Unfortunately, opposing offenses just don’t seem interested in attacking the perimeter of Green Bay’s defense right now because the middle of the field is so wide open. Need examples? The Dolphins, Lions and Vikings have all recently feasted on middle-of-the-field zones, which cornerbacks typically don’t carry in defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley’s scheme.
To put it frankly, I think any sort of short-term hype about the outside corners while offenses are peppering the team behind the linebacker level is a bit of fool’s gold. Only time will tell if I’m right or I’ll have to eat crow, though.
Back to Jaire. Despite Alexander having a rough go of it in Week 1 against the Philadelphia Eagles, he played well otherwise in 2024. According to Next Gen Stats, the Packers’ allowed completion percentage — even including the Philadelphia game — was a full 10 percent lower this year when Alexander was on the field (61 percent) than when he wasn’t (71 percent). That seems like a pretty valuable data point!
Quarterbacks also had a passer rating of just 77.5 when Alexander was on the field compared to 95.3 when he was out of the lineup. To put that into perspective, the team allowing the lowest passer rating on defense this year is the Vikings with 82.3. Green Bay’s defense was better than that with Alexander active! Meanwhile, a 95.3 rating is slightly below the league-wide average. From a team-wide perspective, that would register 23rd in the NFL this season between the Tennessee Titans and Arizona Cardinals.
At the same time, I do acknowledge that Alexander is now coming into his Age 28 season with a couple of significant injuries on his resume, notably his shoulder and now knee. While the injuries haven’t been correlated yet, what if his next injury is? The ghost of Bakhtiari lingers.
Much of the debate on whether to bring Alexander back for 2025 seems to center around his cap hit and/or salary based on his availability, which is reasonable. At the moment, Alexander commands a $16.15 million base salary next year, all of which is non-guaranteed. His cap hit for next year stands at $25.86 million, but his dead cap (the cost to release Alexander) would also be $19.09 million — due to all of the bonuses the Packers have used to stretch the cap hits of Alexander’s previous payments over multiple seasons.
Ultimately, the question you really need to answer is if Alexander is worth paying that $17.5 million cash payment ($16.15 million in salary) next year. The cap hits, especially with a June 1 release on the table, can be manipulated however you want. What matters is how much you’d be willing to pay for Alexander’s 2025 season…eventually, not just immediately in 2025. His 2025 cap hit isn’t a non-factor here, but it also isn’t as important as you’d think. Green Bay won’t be stressed for cap space next year, either, as they’ll finally be getting out of the cap debt they went through to keep the late Aaron Rodgers-era squads together.
But is this debate even as simple as Alexander’s salary? Are the only options for the Packers to release Alexander at a $19.09 million dead cap or pay him $17.5 million in cash next season? No. A much more reasonable approach, and almost certainly one that Green Bay will poke around at, would be reaching out to Alexander’s camp with a restructure offer that would see the cornerback give up some of that salary in 2025 in exchange for performance (or availability) escalators like we’ve seen the Packers do in the past — most recently Preston Smith.
What would that number have to be for Green Bay to feel good about keeping Alexander around in 2025, though? I don’t know. What would Alexander need to get from the Packers to not test out a one-year “prove it” deal elsewhere next offseason? I also don’t know.
Until there’s some clarity there, I don’t really have an opinion on whether or not the Packers should bring Alexander back. I know he’s had injuries. That sucks. I know Green Bay’s defense is better on the field when Alexander is out there. That sucks when he’s not on the field. I know the team will almost certainly release him if his contract isn’t adjusted, because of the type of money he’s commanding, but his situation almost certainly warrants a restructure conversation, which no one seems to want to have right now. That also sucks.