Taking some plays from the AFC Championship Game and giving them to the Packers
Last week, we took a look at a cool play the Lions ran in their loss to the Commanders and stole it. This week, we’re digging into the AFC Championship Game and seeing what we can steal for the Green Bay Packers’ 2025 offense. This time, we’re stealing a handful of plays that all fit into the same bucket: post-snap RPOs.
Let’s set us up real quick so we’re all on the same page. When we say “post-snap RPO,” what are we talking about?
As I’m sure you’re aware, RPO stands for “Run/Pass Option.” It’s a called run play, with a passing concept tagged onto it and the QB makes a decision whether to hand the ball off or throw it. When bucketing the different types of RPOs, I think of it in terms of when the QB makes the decision on when to throw.
On a Pre-Snap RPO, the decision is made before the ball is snapped. It’s a numbers game to one side of the field. It’s typically a horizontal play — Bubble, Flat, etc. — and the QB is looking to see if he has a numbers advantage on the throw side. If the offense has more players on that side than the defense, the QB will throw. If the numbers are even or worse, the QB will hand it off. You’ve seen a thousand of these over the past couple years from the Packers.
A Post-Snap RPO is when the QB determines whether to throw the ball or not based on a post-snap read. These are vertical routes – Glance, Slant, etc. – where the QB is reading a defender (the Conflict Defender). The QB will put the ball into the stomach of the RB and read the defender. If he comes up to play the run, the QB will pull the ball and fire to the receiver in the spot the defender just vacated. If the defender stays in place, the QB will hand the ball off.
The idea is to make the defense wrong no matter what they do. If they’ve got numbers to the pass, they’re light in the box. If they’re in the box to stop the run, they’ve got air in the pass game.
Pre-snap RPOs are a safer bet, since you typically know what you’re getting before the ball is snapped. However, since they’re based around horizontal routes, the passing game has a limit to how explosive it could be. You’re basically looking for it to be a more effective play than handing the ball off, so we’re talking about 5.2 YPA being a good RPO call.
Post-snap RPOs can be a little riskier (the ball has to come out quickly, and a small change in the defense to that side could derail it), but there are more opportunities for big plays.
The Packers very much live in the world of pre-snap RPOs. In the 2024 season, they ran 191 RPOs in total, but only 7 of those (3.7%) were post-snap RPOs. It wasn’t much better in 2023, with 6.5% of their RPOs being of the post-snap variety. These were virtually non-existent with Aaron Rodgers, so the numbers are even lower if you go back a few years.
But we’re bringing them into Green Bay in 2025. Why? Because I’ve been wanting it to happen for a while and because we just saw the Chiefs have a lot of success with these against the Bills. On the opening drive alone, they trotted out a couple post-snap RPOs and drove right down the field.
The first play works off a quick-game concept called Hank. It’s a hook route from the outside and a flat route from the inside. The conflict defender is the linebacker to that side. As soon as that defender steps up to fit the run, Patrick Mahomes pulls the ball and fires to Hollywood Brown for a gain of 11 yards.
A couple of plays later, they pull out a post-snap RPO that can hit the receiver on the move. It’s one I typically tag as Glance, and it looks an awful lot like a hot/replace route. The wide receiver fires vertically off the line, bending slightly into the middle of the field.
Once again, the Conflict Defender is the linebacker to that side. This route asks the receiver, Juju Smith-Schuster, to win his route to the inside, which he is able to do. With the Conflict Defender held in place, Mahomes pulls the ball and gets the ball to Smith-Schuster with room to move, and the Chiefs end up with a 31 yard gain.
On this particular play, it seems like Mahomes knows the linebacker won’t be a problem, and is selling the throw to the flat to help open this up. Still, you typically read the linebacker on this play, so if we’re stealing this — and we are — we’re reading the conflict defender.
I say “steal”, but we’re not really stealing. The Packers have both of these plays in their playbook. It’s more of a gentle nudge in the direction of running these more often. “See, they can be effective and explosive. I promise.”
Albums listened to: Talking Heads – Remain in Light; The Verve – A Storm in Heaven; Gleemer – End of the Nail