A lot of long-term roles are still up for grabs as we move into the second half of the season
Mid-season is rarely the opportune time to look so far ahead to the off-season, but such is the nature of roster analysis. The wheel keeps on turning as the games go, and each game provides us new data points to provide insight as to how teams should act, and there is still much data to be collected and many things to be learned. Here is just a quick snapshot of the Green Bay Packers’ situation in terms of capabilities and roster situation, broken down by position group.
The Packers finally escaped the COVID-era cap crunch last off-season and were able to splurge on safety Xavier McKinney, who appears headed for an All-Pro season in Green Bay. The Packers have spent the past few years accruing picks, both in terms of compensation picks for letting players walk in free agency, as well as the trades of Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, and Rasul Douglas. They now do not sit in that situation. The Packers are only expected to receive one compensation pick this year (a seventh for Yosh Nijman), and the only additional pick they’ve added was a to-be-determined seventh for Preston Smith.
While the Packers may not be as stocked with draft capital as they have been the past few years, this is still the league’s youngest team that only has gotten younger over the past couple of weeks with Preston Smith being sent to Pittsburgh. With that level of youth comes a great deal of uncertainty about what this team is and what this team will look like by season’s end, and with that, what Brian Gutekunst will be monitoring as we head down the home stretch. Before touching on the uncertain positions, let’s take the secure ones off the table.
High Certainty Positions
Quarterback:
The Packers franchise quarterback is clear, even with the interception struggles. The team is married to Jordan Love until at least 2027, at minimum. I’d expect an improvement in his performance in the second half of the season as he gets healthy, his turnover luck improves, and his receivers hopefully stop posting league-leading drop rates. It is possible the team could entertain a trade for Malik Willis, but a now-solid backup quarterback at the league minimum is very useful, as we have seen.
Runningback:
Josh Jacobs’ contract, while technically four years, is really more of a ‘two and then we’ll see’ situation. He has been rock solid for Green Bay this year, providing solid production on high volume. Chris Brooks and Emmanuel Wilson have looked competent as backups, and Marshawn Lloyd is set to come back from IR at any moment. This will not be a high priority for the team this off-season barring something dramatic changing in the second half.
Wide Receiver:
The whole stable of receivers will be back next year, as only Bo Melton is any type of free agent, and that is just an exclusive-rights free agent, meaning he can be brought back for the league minimum. I doubt either Romeo Doubs or Christian Watson will have earned an off-season extension, and the Packers likely play this out into 2025 before making any long-term decisions at the position. Don’t be surprised if they draft a bigger bodied X-receiver at some point in the 2025 draft though, as only Romeo Doubs fits that description, and he will be a free agent after the 2025 season.
Tight End:
While this has been a nightmare season for Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft has cemented himself as one of the NFL’s best tight ends. An impactful and versatile blocker, Kraft has really come on as a dangerous receiving threat, particularly after the catch, where his +3.7 YAC-over expected per reception ranks third in the NFL. The Packers are hopeful Musgrave can return this season following surgery, but even if he cannot, he will still be a major part of the group going forward.
Safety:
What a difference a year makes. Xavier McKinney is currently on track to be an All-Pro in his first season in Green Bay, and Evan Williams looks like he may be destined for an All-Pro team in the not-to-distant future as well. Those two may have a shout for the best safety duo in the league. Javon Bullard has been a hybrid safety/slot player this season, and while he has not been nearly as effective as Williams, has still been an improvement over what Green Bay has had at safety in recent years.
Moderate Certainty
Defensive Tackle:
Despite pretty disappointing play so far, Kenny Clark is going to be back next year. His recent extension makes cutting him a moot point, and while he has been disappointing, he has still been the best of an overall disappointing group. Devonte Wyatt flashed some pass-rushing prowess early on, but an injury then derailed his season, and at this point, it would seem unwise for the Packers to exercise his fifth-year option, which would guarantee his 2026 salary for a little over $13M. Wyatt just doesn’t have the snap volume, even when healthy, to be worth that money. TJ Slaton looks likely to leave in free agency as his role diminishes, while Karl Brooks and Colby Wooden have largely been bit players this season, though Brooks’ snap counts have been increasing of late. The 2025 group will probably look pretty similar to the 2024 group, but the team will probably want to be a year early adding a young body to this corps to prepare for life after Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt.
Cornerback:
The team will almost certainly go into 2025 with Jaire Alexander, Keisean Nixon, and Carrington Valentine on the roster, but it’s quite unclear what the long-term plan for the position is beyond that point. Alexander is frequently injured and approaching the age where cornerback performance starts to fall off a cliff, and the Packers can hit the eject button after 2025 with only moderate pain. Don’t be surprised if Green Bay looks to draft bodies relatively early in the 2025 draft to prepare for life after Jaire and Nixon, and to provide competition for Valentine, who has been pretty good when he plays, but just isn’t getting snap volume for whatever reason.
Eric Stokes is almost certain to walk after this season. The former first-round pick has been a shell of his 2021 self since the injuries and is the target of choice for opponents running any sort of in-breaker now. He simply is not sticky enough in any type of man or match coverage, and doesn’t provide value on special teams.
Offensive Line:
Josh Myers is scheduled to be a free agent after the season, and despite seemingly being a favorite of both Jordan Love and Brian Gutekunst, my best guess is that we saw the 2025 offensive line last week with Elgton Jenkins at center, Jordan Morgan at left guard, and Sean Rhyan at right guard. Myers’ entrance into the lineup in 2021 almost perfectly coincides with the Packers offensive line’s inability to move bodies in the run game to the extent they did for much of the 2010s. That’s not all on Myers, but his performance has not helped in that regard. Add in the fact that even fringe-starters are getting close to eight-figure-per-year deals (see: Jon Runyan Jr), and the Packers having some options in-house, and it’s hard to see Myers returning in 2025. Beyond 2025, things get extremely up in the air. Zach Tom seems almost certain to receive an extension this off-season that compensates him for the fantastic work he does at right tackle, but every other spot on the line is unclear. Elgton Jenkins is approaching the end stages of his deal, and may be moved into center. Rasheed Walker is approaching the end of his rookie deal, and his performances and penalty-proneness provide their own issues. Will Green Bay really want to splash starter left-tackle money on Walker? Are Sean Rhyan and Jordan Morgan good enough to justify starting roles? I expect Green Bay to attack the offensive line with a volume approach this spring, not so much for 2025 snaps, but to prepare for 2026 where the likes of Walker, Rhyan, and Jenkins may no longer be around.
Low Certainty Positions
Defensive End:
With Preston Smith moving to Pittsburgh, the door is wide open for Lukas Van Ness to stamp his ground. Unfortunately, the non-Rashan Gary defensive ends have been abysmal in the pass rush department this season. Both Van Ness and JJ Enagbare have pressure rates below 7.5%, about half of what a disappointing Rashan Gary season has been. This defensive structure largely lives and dies by pressure, and the defensive end group has simply not been getting the job done this season. Gary’s contract dictates he’s going to be around for at least another season, and the Packers are unlikely to actually move Van Ness or Enagbare because they are on rookie deals, but if the performance from Van Ness does not improve, Green Bay is going to be pressed to spend a high pick at defensive end in a pretty strong EDGE class.
Linebacker:
Edgerrin Cooper has looked very solid, especially for a rookie learning what is effectively an entirely different position from his collegiate role. Eric Wilson has had some nice splash plays, but has largely been a special teamer across his career, and will be a free agent in his thirties. Isaiah McDuffie is a willing run defender, but lacks the length and footspeed to avoid being a major liability in coverage, and will also be a free agent. Quay Walker is almost certain to have his fifth-year option declined, making 2025 his last year as a Packer. Ty’Ron Hopper certainly does theoretically exist, doesn’t he? Second-round grade!
The starting unit may be almost entirely different by next summer, as the Packers will have little reason to keep hoping Walker turns his athletic gifts into performance and McDuffie and Wilson may not be in town anymore. It’s Edgerrin Cooper and nothing but question marks at every other spot on the roster.
Specialists:
Daniel Whelan sure is neat. The Packers will be bringing him back again as an exclusive rights free agent. The kicker and long-snapper situations are up about as clear as mud going forward. Brandon McManus may not even make it to the end of the season, and long-snapper has been a thorn in the organization’s side ever since Brett Goode left Green Bay.
The Packers are looking at potential overhauls at two or three positions on defense, but with an offense that looks incredibly stable year-to-year. The questions will start to be more pressing at that side of the ball next year, but we have a lot of data to collect before those decisions need to be made. The Packers are in a strong spot to be able to handle these decisions, with a solid stock of picks and a new-found financial flexibility after clearing out much of the cap clutter from the late-Rodgers years. And maybe, just maybe, a player or two will surprise us down the stretch and solve the problems before we even get to February.