The Packers are favored by 14 points over the Saints. How has that gone for them in the past?
The Packers find themselves in a very comfortable spot heading into Week 16. Needing just one win to lock up a playoff spot, the next game on their schedule is a primetime home game where they’re favored by 14 points against the hapless Saints.
The less said about the Saints, the better, but just to summarize: the Saints came into 2024 already behind the eight ball. Their roster was weak, hamstrung by their front office’s insistence on never, ever, ever getting out of cap hell. Since then, things have only gotten worse. Their already thin roster was made even thinner by injuries, which have landed nine Saints on injured reserve; another three players have already been ruled out for Monday. In the meantime, they’ve fired their head coach, replacing him with one-time would-be Packers’ special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi.
The Packers, meanwhile, are virtually exactly the opposite. They’ve been largely healthy all year, their offense is clicking, and their defense is making strides. They seem to be peaking at the right time, and appear well-positioned to nuke the Saints with the whole country watching.
But will they? That’s the question, and if history is any indication, there’s a pretty good chance they will.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Packers have been favored by 10 or more points in 38 games since 2000. In those 38 chances, the Packers have covered the double-digit spread 21 times.
Of course, as the spread gets bigger, covering gets harder. In 15 games where the Packers were favored by at least 13, they’ve covered the spread just seven times, though they’re 2-2 against the spread in the four games where they were favored by at least 14.
Their covers include a 26-0 win over the Lions in 2009 and a 24-3 win over the Rams in 2011. In both games, the Packers were favored by exactly 14 points, just as they currently are for this week’s game.
Unfortunately, there have been times where the Packers haven’t just failed to cover the spread, but lost outright, and at least a couple of those losses were season-defining failures.
In 2001, the Packers were 10-point favorites against the Falcons, but Chris Chandler shredded the Packers’ defense to the tune of 352 passing yards en route to a 23-20 upset.
In 2011, the Packers fell on the road to the Chiefs as 11.5-point favorites, clocking their first loss of the season as Kyle Orton piloted Kansas City to 10 fourth quarter points to secure the 19-14 upset.
In 2015, the Packers gave the Lions their first win at Lambeau in more than a generation, failing to slow down Matthew Stafford and the Detroit offense despite entering the game as 10.5-point favorites. The Packers made a tremendous comeback effort, scoring a late touchdown and two-point conversion and recovering an onside kick, but Mason Crosby missed a 52-yard field goal as time expired to secure the 18-16 win for the Lions.
Then, in 2018, the Packers were 13.5-point favorites against the lowly Arizona Cardinals but, in an effort that would ultimately get Mike McCarthy fired, fell 20-17 against rookie quarterback Josh Rosen. Rosen was out of Arizona the next season and out of the league just a couple of years after that, just to give you an idea of the level of competition the Packers failed to overcome that day.
This is not to say the Packers are in danger of losing to the Saints on Monday, though there clearly are some examples of the Packers dropping the ball when they’re heavily favored. By and large, when the Packers are favored big, they take care of business, sometimes against the spread, and almost always in the box score. Look for more of the same against the Saints this week.