Green Bay’s defense ranks top ten in EPA per play, EPA per pass, and EPA per rush this season. Additionally, they are a top-ten unit in both pass defense DVOA and run defense DVOA.
The Packers’ run defense has significantly improved this season. In previous years, the defense was gashed all game while the defensive coordinator remained frozen in the mannequin challenge, with no adjustments made.
The pass defense has held its own despite Jaire Alexander missing six games and playing just 10 snaps against the Chicago Bears. However, the team’s depth at corner remains thin. Keisean Nixon and Eric Stokes have repeatedly been burned. There’s no reason for Carrington Valentine not to receive more playing time.
While the pass defense has been effective, the Packers continue to struggle defending the middle of the field. According to PFF, in their losses last year, opposing quarterbacks averaged an 85% completion rate and a 105.9 passer rating on throws between 0 to 10 yards in the middle. In 2024, Green Bay has had a slow start in this area. In Week 1, Jalen Hurts completed all eight passes for 93 yards and a 115.1 passer rating. Anthony Richardson followed with six of seven completions for 55 yards and a 99.4 passer rating. In Week 3, Will Levis had an 85% completion rate, 36 yards, one touchdown, and a 127.7 passer rating.
This remains a recurrent issue into December, as Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa feasted with throws over the middle in the last two weeks.
Green Bay has also struggled to defend the screen game. Prior to the Thursday night game against the Detroit Lions, quarterbacks completed 85.7% of their passes for 330 yards on screen passes against the Packers. From Weeks 11 to 13, passers went 11 of 12 for 126 yards on screens. The defensive line ranks among the league’s worst at recognizing screens. They sit in the bottom 10 in pass-rush win rate. Their desperation to generate pressure has made them vulnerable to being outmaneuvered at the line of scrimmage. Their desperation to generate pressure has made them vulnerable to outmaneuvering at the line of scrimmage.
We are currently in a world where the pass defense has more issues than the run defense. Yet, they remain a top-ten unit in DVOA, which speaks volumes about Jeff Hafley’s work. We often highlight the safety revamp as one of Green Bay’s biggest positive changes. Heck, the social media team is having more fun than ever. However, the defensive coordinator position also deserves its own praise for the team’s success.
We’re in December football, and great teams get hot this time of year. The Packers boast a top-ten offense in almost every statistical category. If Green Bay’s defense can correct its mistakes, they will become a dangerous team come playoff time.
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