To the dismay of a vocal portion of the Green Bay fanbase, Brian Gutekunst only made one move at the trade deadline this year. He traded Preston Smith to the Steelers. Immediately after that move many speculated that the Packers would be making a follow up trade, to bolster what has been up to this point a disappointing pass rush.
Instead, Green Bay made no further moves. Which tells us that they believe the answer is already on the roster. That means more Arron Mosby, maybe more Brenton Cox Jr. Most importantly it means more Lukas Van Ness.
Lukas Van Ness is currently sporting a 6.7% pass rush win rate. That has him at 80th for pass rushers. To put that in further perspective, Yannick Ngakoue, recently released from Baltimore and claimed by New England has a 12.1% win rate. Ngakoue is close to 30 years old, was just outright released, and is winning twice as much as LVN.
This doesn’t mean that Van Ness is a bust, or that he can’t take that next step. As of right now Green Bay is counting on it.
Giving Van Ness his best shot at taking that step is not the only decision Green Bay will need to make regarding some of its first round picks soon.
I would agree with the post above, I think Wyatt has improved every year and the value of interior disruption in today’s NFL can’t be overstated.
Walker on the other hand seems like the same guy he was when he stepped on the field as a rookie. He’s athletic but doesn’t play fast, and too often is out of position or a step slow to get there.
The decision on these two players, combined with the (presumably) increased role for Van Ness led me to look back at all of the first round picks made by Gutekunst since he took over in 2018.
The Hits
Jaire Alexander – Injuries have slowed him down the past few seasons, but when he’s right he’s a top ten corner in the league. If you need evidence of how the defense misses him just look back at the last two games Green Bay has played.
Jordan Love – Despite missing 2.5 games this year and dealing with several nagging injuries Love is still 9th in touchdown passes. He’s doing that with what remains the youngest offense in the league by a not small margin.
The Misses
Darnell Savage – Released from the team this last offseason, Savage joined the Jaguars who currently sit in last place in total defense rankings. He put the nail in Dallas’s coffin in the playoffs last year, but also dropped a remarkably similar ball in the loss to San Francisco.
Eric Stokes – Stokes had a promising rookie year that looked as though Green Bay had finally found Alexander a suitable running mate in the back end. Even before an injury in year two essentially ruined his next two seasons he had taken a massive step back. Green Bay declined his 5th year option this offseason, but despite positive reviews in the offseason, his play so far leads me to believe he will not be on this roster next year.
Quay Walker – Covered above but Walker has failed to live up to his athletic potential and the defense seems to perform better with Edgerrin Cooper and Eric Wilson on the field. It would be surprising right now if Green Bay picked up his option.
The Jury is Still Out
Rashan Gary – You could argue on Gary either way. He’s certainly improved from his rookie year, and can have games where he lives in the backfield. Unfortunately this year has been a big step back. Gary showed enough for Green Bay to him real money, but his performance will need to improve over the back half or it wouldn’t stun me if Green Bay starts looking for alternative options.
Devonte Wyatt – Much like Gary, Wyatt started out slowly, but has made real strides since first being drafted. Injuries have hampered what started out as a promising season so what he does in the back half of this year will go a long way to determining if he remains part of Green Bay’s long term plans
Lukas Van Ness – The runway is clear, time to see what he can do.
Jordan Morgan – A rookie that’s dealt with injuries through out camp and the season, it’s simply too early to make any judgment calls, although watching what Graham Barton has done in Tampa does give concerning flashbacks to the decision to take Josh Myers over Creed Humphrey.
So does Green Bay have a problem hitting on first round picks? How Wyatt, Gary and Van Ness finish out this season will have a lot to do with whether or not that’s true. If one or two of them make real strides this season then I think Green Bay continues to follow its strategy of targeting highly athletic prospects and hoping to coach them into real players. If they don’t however it may be time to reevaluate that process. Green Bay has always been a “draft and develop” team, but that only works if you nail the develop part.
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