Confessions of a Polluted Mindset – Can Hafley “turnover” the Packers D?

Of all the moves made by the Packers since the end of last season, the firing of Joe Barry and hiring of Jeff Hafley stands as the one that could have the most consequence as to the success of this team in 2024. Winning the turnover battle, especially in the playoffs, has always been a consistent measure of success in the NFL. The Packers defense was a pitiful 31st in the league in interceptions (7) and 26th in forced fumbles last season. The offense, meanwhile, did a much better job, finishing 22nd in interceptions thrown (11) and 15th (tied with four other teams) in fumbles (6).  Against Dallas in the playoffs, the Packers defense came through with two interceptions that resulted in 14 points while the offense played turnover-free football. In the playoff loss to the 49ers, the equation was flipped, with the Packers having two interceptions and the 49ers playing turnover-free football. The Packers missed the playoffs in 2022 and prior to that in 2021, they finished with the best turnover differential in the league, but were minus-1 in their loss to the 49ers in the playoffs.

All this being said, while winning and losing isn’t as simple as winning the turnover battle, it does go a long way. Various studies have shown that teams winning the turnover battle by +1 win appx. 70% of the time, +2 or +3 win roughly 90% of the time. I couldn’t find anything specific to playoff games, but my gut tells me the percentages are probably higher in those high pressure, high stakes games.

And that brings us back to Jeff Hafley. The aggressiveness doctrine he espouses SHOULD lead to more turnovers from the Packers defense versus the “play it safe” mantra of Joe Barry. If Hafley’s defense can deliver in the critical turnover department, that could hold the key to a potential playoff run to the Super Bowl.

On another note, today is the first day that certain players report to Lambeau Field for the start of their 2024 season. As Aaron Nagler pointed out in his Monday “Packers Daily” rookies and quarterbacks are expected to report today. Yes, quarterbacks. As in Pratt, Clifford and, oh, Jordan Love? Will Jordan Love appear? Will he walk in, march up to Russ Ball’s office, sign on the dotted line and then head down to the locker room? Will he stay home while final details of a contract extension are still being worked out? Stay tuned… 

On the positive side, Love is in Wisconsin currently (not in Egypt) at his first football camp for kids. He wasn’t allowed to answer a contract question and just repeated what someone off camera said, “news to come.” But could that ear-to-ear grin be a giveaway?

#Packers training camp kicks off on Monday.

How are contract extension talks going with Jordan Love?

We’ll be waiting for that news to come. pic.twitter.com/GIFnOZ8nPA

— Lily Zhao (@LilySZhao) July 16, 2024

I’ve been thinking about the rookie I’m most excited about and have settled on Edgerrin Cooper. Cooper has the athletic ability to be a dynamic disrupter on the Packers defense. His acceleration to the ball carrier is elite level and early reports from OTAs raved about his ability to diagnose early in the play. Turn him loose, Jeff!

The biggest mystery for me is, what will Eric Stokes be? Finally over all of the injuries, can he stay healthy? Can he recapture some of that promise he showed as a rookie? Have the injuries diminished his speed or mobility at all? So may questions…

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