Can the Saints pull off a big upset?

Is there a matchup problem somewhere for Green Bay?

The New Orleans Saints are, in short, a mess. Their cap sheet has been the subject of jokes for a half-decade now and will continue to be for at least the next two seasons as they continue to refuse to take their medicine from the late Drew Brees years. The team is decimated by injuries, most notably at quarterback where Derek Carr has missed a good chunk of the season and has already been declared out for Monday night’s matchup. Star running back Alvin Kamara injured his groin this past weekend against Washington, putting his status for this matchup in serious doubt. It’s entirely possible the Saints don’t put Carr or Kamara back on the field again this year as their season is over, sitting at just 5-9 with a <1% chance of making the playoffs per The Athletic’s playoff probability projections. There is a reason the Packers are 14-point favorites.

Is there any way that the Saints can pull of an upset?

The first issue for the Saints is that their passing game is a disaster right now. Not only is Derek Carr out, but the Saints have missed their WR1, Chris Olave, for most of the season. Their leading receiver is running back Alvin Kamara, who as noted earlier, may not play. Tight end Juwan Johnson, with his 36 receptions, would be next on the list, followed by his fellow tight end Foster Moreau. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is currently the centerpiece of their wide receiver room. It’s a bleak situation before you even get to the quarterback room.

With Derek Carr out, it will either be Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler under center for the Saints. There isn’t even a chance for a goofy Taysom Hill game, as he tore his ACL earlier this month. Both Haener and Rattler have been among the worst quarterbacks to take a snap this season, with both having EPA/dropbacks below -.3, CPOEs below -9%, and pressure-to-sack rates north of 22%. As of writing the Saints haven’t made a final decision on their starter for this week, but let’s be honest, it doesn’t really matter.

To make matters worse in the passing game, the Saints’ offensive line is abysmal.

The only member of the Saints offensive line not allowing a well below-average pressure rate this season is center Erik McCoy. As bad as the Seahawks line was last week, the Saints are even a little bit worse. While the unit is miserable protecting the quarterback, they have managed to reach respectability in the run game, merely being below-average on net.

Of course, without Kamara, the running game looks a lot less scary. Jamaal Williams is third on the team in carries, but while he is sure-handed and an A-level pass blocker, his ability to do damage running the ball is quite limited, evidenced by his -1.1 RYOE/attempt and measly 3.7 yards per carry. Kendre Miller picked up the carries when Kamara went out last week, and likely would receive the majority of them this week should Kamara be unable to go. He has fewer than 70 total career carries, so there’s not much statistical information to glean from the former third-round pick.

It’s difficult to see how the Saints offense threatens Green Bay. With porous quarterback play, perhaps the worst receiving group in the league, and a horrendous offensive line, the Packers will not need to respect the passing game all that much, which means they can load up on the Saints’ running game and should be able to keep their backs bottled up. While the Saints may try and pull out some goofy plays to try and create some chunks, it’s extremely difficult to foresee how they’re supposed to move the ball on Monday on a down-to-down basis.

On the defensive side of the ball, which has been the team’s strength for the past several years, atrophy is kicking in. Their run defense ranks 29th in the league in EPA/rush and 30th in success rate allowed. The passing defense has remained respectable, largely due to the pass-rushing contributions of defensive ends Chase Young and Carl Granderson, who have 56 and 55 pressures, respectively, per PFF. This does play into Green Bay’s hands, however, as the Packers’ offensive tackles are their strongest pass blockers, and will be playing at home and not on the Superdome turf. There isn’t much to write home about on the rest of their defense. It’s a combination of aged players from a bygone era of Saints football like Demario Davis and Tyrann Mathieu, near-vet minimum players like safety Will Harris and linebacker Willie Gay, along with mostly rookie contract players who have not impressed in their time in the league.

Football is a dumb game and a pretty high-variance sport in any given game, but it’s hard to put together a formula for how this team is supposed to beat Green Bay without a pretty bizarre sequence of events. If the Packers can avoid special teams snafus, not put the ball on the ground a bunch, and just be a relatively normal football team for a few hours, they should be able to win comfortably. There’s a reason the line has moved towards the Packers since it opened. The Saints are terrible, and the Packers are very good. We probably won’t learn a thing on Monday, but hopefully, we can enjoy a good whoopin’.