The Green Bay Packers will attempt to pull off an upset as the No. 7 seed for the second consecutive season when Matt LaFleur’s team goes to Philadelphia to play the 14-3 Eagles on Sunday to open the postseason.
The Eagles have won 12 of the last 13 games, including seven straight at Lincoln Financial Field. Last year, the Cowboys were unbeaten at home before the Packers went scorched earth at AT&T Stadium in a 48-32 upset victory.
Repeating the feat on Sunday will be extremely difficult.
Here are five keys to the Packers beating the Eagles in the NFC Wild Card Round:
Get run game rolling early
The Packers have been at their best this season when Josh Jacobs sets the tone early. While the Packers struggled to get Jacobs going early in the first meeting in Week 1, Jacobs ended up rushing for 505 yards (best among the four quarters) and averaging 4.8 yards in the first quarter across all games in 2024. The offensive line must win battles up front early and ensure the Packers can play two-dimensional offense for four quarters. The Eagles are strong against the run and will be expecting the run-heavy Packers to get established on the ground, but landing a couple of early punches in the run game could get the Packers rolling. Last year in Dallas, Aaron Jones hit the Cowboys early and everything else opened up.
Early takeaway, win the ball overall
The Packers don’t have to replicate last year’s blueprint in Dallas, but getting an early takeaway would certainly help the cause. Jalen Hurts hasn’t played a full game in over a month and might be a little rusty or slow with the football, and the Packers must pounce if he provides an early takeaway opportunity. In Brazil, the Packers got a first-half pick from Xavier McKinney but turned it into only three points. In Dallas last January, Jaire Alexander’s interception of Dak Prescott set up a touchdown that gave the Packers a 14-0 lead. Even if the takeaway doesn’t arrive early, the Packers must win the ball. The Eagles turned the ball over three times in the opener and lost a few games in September when losing the turnover battle. Hurts threw only five picks, but he also lost five fumbles. Can the Packers get a big turnover or two, and can Jordan Love keep the ball out of harm’s way for four quarters?
Beat man coverage
The Eagles don’t play a ton of man coverage, but they are very effective when playing man, and it won’t be surprising if Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio plays more man coverage with Christian Watson out of the lineup. The Packers really struggled against man coverage without their top deep threat this season, including during a discouraging performance from the passing game in Week 17 in Minneapolis. Matt LaFleur and the Packers better have more man-beaters in the queue because there’s a good chance the Eagles will challenge the Packers to consistently beat man coverage in big passing situations. Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks can be separators. Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave both have winning attributes against man. And maybe Jordan Love can use his legs to create outside of structure if the Eagles are more man-heavy on Sunday. In a few big spots, the Packers must find answers in the passing game.
Win 1-on-1s inside
Beating left tackle Jordan Mailata and right tackle Lane Johnson will be tough business on the edges, so the Packers must find ways of creating disruption and pressure from the inside. Devonte Wyatt, Kenny Clark and Karl Brooks must all be game-wreckers on the interior. They also need to hold up against the run to prevent Saquon Barkley from getting free access to the second level, where he’s made a living this season. Wyatt, in particular, needs to be at his best. He has the speed and power to win battles, get in the backfield and create negative plays. With the Packers likely pass-rushing to contain Jalen Hurts in the pocket, collapsing the interior will be vital.
Survive second half Saquon
Incredibly, Saquon Barkley rushed for 1,245 yards and averaged 6.9 yards per attempt during the second half of games in 2024. While effective in the first half, he often wore out defenses and busted big plays with the Eagles holding leads in the third and fourth quarters. A similar script played out in Week 1, when Barkley erupted in the second half in Brazil. The Packers have been a good run defense in 2024, but it’s tough to keep Barkley contained for four quarters. Linebackers Edgerrin Cooper and Quay Walker will be in the spotlight, and Cooper’s playmaking ability could be the differentiating factor for the Packers. One thing can’t happen: the Packers can’t fall behind in the first half. In fact, the Packers probably need to have a lead in the second half to force the Eagles out of their typical way of engineering games.