Two areas where the Packers have struggled on offense are also weaknesses for the San Francisco defense.
The Green Bay Packers will try to exorcise some recent demons on Sunday afternoon when they host the San Francisco 49ers. The two teams have met repeatedly in both the regular season and playoffs over the last several years, and though Matt LaFleur’s team is 2-1 in regular season meetings against Kyle Shanahan (all of which came at Levi’s Stadium), his old boss has won all three playoff meetings between the two teams.
This year, however, the Packers get to host a regular-season meeting, and there are some reasons to think that a few issues that LaFleur’s offense has struggled with this season could get straightened out a bit. To begin with, this Niners defense — while still a good unit — is not the elite, world-beating group that it has been in some recent seasons. San Francisco ranks just 16th in points allowed as well as the percentage of opposing teams’ drives that end in a score.
Look, the 49ers are still a good team. They still have elite playmakers on both sides of the football and, digging deeper, at all levels of the defense. Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and Charvarius Ward are all All-Pro caliber players. The Niners have seen some talent drain recently on that defense, however, and especially with Bosa’s and Ward’s statuses uncertain for Sunday’s game, they may be even more beatable than they have been to this point.
Meanwhile, the Packers’ offense has been very good at moving the football between the 20s and generating explosive plays. But a couple of the areas where Jordan Love and company have been less-than-stellar happen to be situations where the 49ers defense is not performing particularly well.
Let’s take a look at two of them in particular, as well as one player in the San Francisco lineup who is surely a contributing reason to both of these areas of struggle.
3rd Downs
Green Bay’s offense has dropped off considerably in 2024 from their impressive success rate on third down a year ago. One year ago, the team ranked 5th in the NFL with a 47.1% conversion rate; this year that rate has dropped to 36.6%, with the ranking plunging to 22nd.
The 49ers, however, are a bottom-10 team this year in allowing teams to pick up third downs. They rank 25th with a 43.4% conversion rate allowed, as teams are able to sustain drives against the 49ers a bit better than one would think.
This is a trend for San Francisco, however. Last season, despite fielding a defense that ranked in the top ten in most categories, the 49ers allowed over 40% conversions, ranking 24th. They were still in the middle of the pack in 2022 — 16th — when they led the NFL in points and yards allowed.
The Packers should have plenty of areas to attack the 49ers on third downs, and for a better look at exactly how they could do so, our Dusty Evely has you covered.
The big reason for the poor third-down numbers not translating to poor results overall is that the 49ers get a lot of stops via turnovers. In each of the past three seasons, San Francisco has been a top-ten team in takeaways, with 2022 and 2023 finding them in the top five. They’ll let you keep your drives going a bit, perhaps taking a bend-but-don’t-break approach while hunting for the football. If the Packers can be better about ball security on Sunday, they should be able to have a few long, sustained drives that put them in good position to put points on the board.
But they need to convert when they have those opportunities. To that end…
Red Zone
The Packers’ red zone woes have been well-documented by now. They are among the worst teams in the NFL at punching the ball into the end zone when inside the 20, ranking just 27th with a 48.7% touchdown rate. That doesn’t even tell the whole story, though, as they have committed too many turnovers close to the goal line, not only failing to score touchdowns but failing to score at all with regularity.
Still, Green Bay scored on three of five opportunities last week in Chicago, a 60% conversion rate that is actually above the league average. The bigger issue with that game was that their two failures did not end in field goals, but rather turnovers (one interception and one on downs).
And furthermore, when facing not-great red zone defenses, the Packers actually do pretty well! Here’s Dusty again.
Something I found while digging into Red Zone numbers.
With Love this year, the Packers have faced 3 defenses that rank in the 20s in terms of TDs given up in the red zone. In those 3 games, the Packers have scored TDs on 71.1% of their trips to the red zone.
The 49ers are ranked 23rd.
San Francisco, however, has struggled at keeping opposing offenses out of the end zone once they get close. They are allowing touchdowns on 20 of 32 red zone opportunities, a 62.5% rate that puts them 23rd in the NFL. If the Packers can move the ball on the 49ers consistently, they should have opportunities to improve their red zone efficiency.
Targeting De’Vondre Campbell
As a bonus item, let’s take a look at an old friend who is now playing a full-time role for the 49ers. Linebacker De’Vondre Campbell played his way out of Green Bay last season with a rough season, one that saw most numbers drop off considerably from his 2021 All-Pro campaign. This year as a member of the 49ers, things are even worse, and the Packers should view him as a player to attack in all phases of the game all day long on Sunday.
Campbell has never been an exceptional coverage defender, having allowed a passer rating over 100 in nearly every season since 2018 (according to Pro Football Reference). This year, that trend remains valid, and Campbell is allowing a whopping 82.5% completion rate into his coverage.
Interestingly, teams appear to be targeting him with passes near the line of scrimmage rather than down the field. The average depth of target for passes targeting him is just 0.8 yards, compared to 5.0 last season, but he is also allowing massive yardage after the catch — about seven yards per reception. That number is consistent with what he allowed last season for the Packers, but it is a huge jump from 2022 (5.8) and especially 2021 (just 3.9).
One reason for this may be Campbell’s missed tackle rate, which has skyrocketed this season as well. He is credited with 8 missed tackles this year for a rate of 12% — compare that to a 4% rate over his entire Packers tenure. If the Packers can get Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed, or Tucker Kraft matched up with Campbell in coverage on a regular basis, look for those players to use their impressive YAC abilities to do some serious damage, and hopefully, that will be one way to find more success on third downs and in the red zone.