Can the Badgers pull off a major upset against the Wildcats on Friday?
The Wisconsin Badgers are set to face off against the No. 10 Arizona Wildcats on Friday, which will be their biggest challenge of the early season as a part of a home-and-home.
Wisconsin has started the year 3-0, most recently blowing out Appalachian State 87-56 in a major victory where they went on a 24-0 run in the first half before putting up 51 points in the second half.
Now, they face a hot Arizona team that has eclipsed the 90-point mark in both of their games, and will have a tough matchup ahead of them on Friday.
Ahead of the game, we linked up with our fellow partners over at Arizona Desert Swarm and I answered some of the biggest questions about the matchup.
Q: AZ Desert Swarm: Wisconsin has begun the year with relatively easy home wins over Holy Cross, Montana State and Appalachian State. What have these results shown in terms of what’s expected from the Badgers this season?
Rohan: It’s been what you expect from a group mixed with new players and returning starters. The Badgers have started games slow, but have looked good through the first three games, putting together some strong offensive performances. Their core is an experienced group, which is reflected by the way they’ve really come out to play in second halves so far. Defensively, they’re working through the little things, such as ball screens, but had their best performance against Appalachian State, holding them to just 56 points and even going 15 straight possessions without allowing a score.
Q: 6th-year senior transfer John Tonje is averaging 17.7 points through three games. What has made him so effective, and is this kind of production sustainable?
Rohan: Tonje has been Wisconsin’s best scorer through three games and it has come with good efficiency, as the wing has shot 55.2 percent from the field and 38.5 percent from deep. He’s an experienced scorer, having averaged 14.2 points a game two seasons ago at Colorado State, and has true three-level ability as a good shooter and physical attacker, hence his 5.7 free throw attempts per game.
He has a way of getting to his spots and benefits from Wisconsin’s constant ball movement, which has created open catch-and-shoot looks for him from deep. He could very well be Wisconsin’s top scorer this year as their main spark on the wings, replacing AJ Storr from a season ago.
Q: Wisconsin is taking almost 45 percent of its shots from 3-point range, a big uptick from a year ago. Is this just a coincidence or do the Badgers plan to make that a bigger part of their offense?
Rohan: While those numbers may even out more as Wisconsin faces teams with more size that don’t crowd the paint defensively, this is a part of the plan this year. The Badgers sought shooting in the transfer portal at both the wing and power forward spot, which has been seen early in the season. All five of Wisconsin’s starters have shot at least 37.5 percent from deep to begin the year, and they have capable shooters, such as Xavier Amos off the bench, to complement the top group.
With the scoring attack being more balanced this year between the starters, there has been a bigger emphasis on shooting, as head coach Greg Gard seeks the most efficient approach offensively, which means attacking the paint, getting to the foul line, and hitting threes.
Q: The Badgers are one of the slowest-paced teams in the country, and last year were 7-13 when games had 66 or more possessions (including 76 at Arizona). How do they plan to slow down the Wildcats’ up-tempo offense?
Rohan: It’s a tough challenge for any defense and especially the Badgers, but it comes down to being better on the defensive end. Wisconsin has been active in passing lanes and with ball pressure, but they need to do a better job of attacking ball screens and rotating well to not allow open shots. Offensively, they need Arizona to cater to their pace in the half court, but also need to take advantage of transitions, which have been an emphasis for the team thus far.
Q: Greg Gard put on a postgame comedy act when he spoke to the media in Tucson last December. He seems like a really fun guy, but he also hasn’t gotten Wisconsin out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament since 2017. Is his seat hot in any way?
Rohan: It’s not hot per se, but there’s an urgency to improve after another early exit in the tournament this past year. Gard has one of the better minds in college basketball, but results are what matters and Wisconsin Athletic Director Chris McIntosh has shown he’s willing to make a move when needed. Still, it’s expected that Wisconsin should make a tournament appearance again this year, so it’s not necessarily hot yet but could be depending on how this season goes.
Q: Prediction time. Does Arizona complete the home-and-home sweep and leave Madison with a big road victory or does Wisconsin protect its house and hand the Wildcats its earliest loss under 4th-year coach Tommy Lloyd? Give us a score prediction.
Rohan: Wisconsin has a solid team, but I don’t see them pulling off the upset at home against Arizona this time around. The Wildcats have too good an offense and they’re physical in the paint, which may provide a tough challenge for Wisconsin as they look to be balanced both inside and outside of the paint. Give me Arizona 88-76 in this one.