Can the Badgers get past BYU and move to the Sweet Sixteen?
Fresh off an 85-66 victory over the Montana Grizzlies, the Wisconsin Badgers are facing off against the BYU Cougars in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, hoping to advance to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since 2017.
The two teams will tip-off at approximately 6:45 p.m. central at the Ball Arena in Denver.
The Badgers earned a No. 3 seed in the East Region of the NCAA Tournament, drawing them No. 14 seed Montana in the first round. Winning that game drew them the winner of No. 6 BYU versus No. 11 VCU, and the Cougars won 80-71 to advance forward to the second round.
Wisconsin’s first-round win was their 27th of the season, which is the most they’ve had since their stellar 2014-15 season that resulted in a National Championship appearance.
Meanwhile, BYU has put together a strong season, going 25-9 so far, and they’re on a tear, having won 10 of their last 11 games, including victories over Kansas, Arizona, and Iowa State (2x) during that stretch.
What are all of the odds ahead of the game?
Odds(via FanDuel)
Prediction
Coming into Saturday, it’s fairly notable that Wisconsin is only a 1.5-point favorite over BYU, illustrating how evenly matched the two teams are.
The Badgers are led by star wing John Tonje, who was named a second-team AP All-American, while the Cougars have a star of their own with wing Richie Saunders, who averaged 16 points per game on 50.8 percent from the field and 42.4 percent from three this season.
Both teams ranked inside the top 15 in offensive efficiency according to KenPom. The difference between them comes on the defensive side of the ball, where Wisconsin is now inside the top 25, while BYU ranks No. 69, according to KenPom.
Wisconsin and BYU both have deep benches, with the Badgers usually running out nine players and the Cougars having 10 guys who play at least 10 minutes per game.
The Badgers seem to have a slight height advantage with their seven-footers, as none of BYU’s top nine players stand over 6’9. That could help with the rebounding advantage, limiting second-chance opportunities for one of the more efficient offenses in the country.
Both teams don’t play at a rapid pace. So, it’ll ultimately come down to which team is more efficient in the half-court. Wisconsin has been inconsistent at times with their three-point shooting, but I see them working inside-out against BYU to create open shots on the perimeter.
They’ll need to move the ball well, as they’ve shown the ability to do, and shoot the three better than they’ve done in recent games. But, they’ll also pose a tough challenge to BYU defensively, which will be key in slowing down the Cougars’ efficiency.
I see a close game boiling down, but Wisconsin pulling off the victory in a higher-scoring game. The big difference for me? Free throws.
The Badgers shoot 82.7 percent from the line, which is the best in the nation. BYU ranks 245th with a 70.4 percent rate at the charity stripe. Wisconsin also attempts more free throws per game than the Cougars.
They’re going to need to be aggressive and get to the charity stripe. I foresee they do, and I’m taking them to cover the 1.5-point spread.
My prediction: Wisconsin -1.5
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See fanduel.com/sportsbook for details.