Let’s predict the outcome of how the Badgers season could go this year.
Greg Gard’s lads are practicing again, and the tip-off for the Wisconsin Badgers’ new season is now less than a month away, with the opener coming on November 4th vs Holy Cross at the Kohl Center.
But, before we look ahead, I want to take a quick peek back for a moment.
After Wisconsin’s stunning, life-affirming win over eventual national runner-up Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament, hopes were high for a robust March Madness run for Bucky. This only made their face plant against James Madison a week later all the more soul-crushing, and following up that debacle with a steady stream of big-time dudes exiting via the portal, including AJ Storr and Chucky Hepburn, led to most Badger fans feeling pessimistic about the future of the program (and some going off the rails).
But, Gard stayed calm and rebuilt his team, adding the talented trio of guard Camren Hunter, swingman John Tonje, and forward Xavier Amos in the span of 10 days, and it was game on again for Wisconsin.
With a solid stable of guys and good depth at almost every position, it’s not hard to imagine a solid if not strong season for this squad, so it’s a great time to look ahead and project the best, worst, and most likely outcomes for this team, even if Big Ten media members are predicting a brutal 12th place finish.
Best Case: In this magical realm, the team stays healthy, the portal guys all turn into meaningful contributors, the Freshmen give a boost, and a few key returnees like John Blackwell make a leap.
With good shooting/floor spacing and improved defense from an unusually porous ‘23-24 effort, the Badgers make some real noise in the Big Ten, finishing in the Top 5, drawing a 4 or 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and—brace yourself—end up in the Sweet Sixteen.
They don’t call it a best-case scenario for nothing, but even so, it doesn’t feel like too much of a reach given all of the fun/versatile pieces in Gard’s puzzle box right now.
Worst Case: Behind this brutal and unforgiving door, a combination of injuries and underperformance turn what some saw as a very promising season into a nightmare of close losses and missed opportunities.
The shots just don’t fall at the rate they need to, and the Badgers come up on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament line, finishing as a Next Four Out, which makes it even harder to swallow.
Not shockingly, the Fire Gard conversation becomes a shout, and Chris McIntosh is forced to deal with a second major program with underwhelming recent results. And this time, he may be listening.
Most Likely: The Badgers suffer some bumps and bruises but have generally decent health for most of the key guys. The transfers all play, and a couple of them are clear value adds.
Daniel Freitag gets minutes, even if it’s clear that his best years are yet to come, and guys like Max Klesmit, a beefier Nolan Winter, and especially Blackwell are improved from last season.
Better defensively, the Badgers gut out some really impressive wins, while dropping a few that they probably shouldn’t. They look like a tournament team all season, and avoid a crippling slump like it had in the previous campaign. Here, Wisconsin finishes eighth in the 18-team Big Ten and is rewarded with a 7 or 8 seed (please, 7) on their way to a Round of 64 win, partially exorcising the demons of 2024.
They almost make it to the Sweet Sixteen but drop a close one as an underdog in the round of 32. Many will try and call it an unsuccessful season, but in light of expectations, it should feel really solid.