How important is Saturday’s game for the Badgers when it comes to their postseason goals?
The Wisconsin Badgers have the biggest game remaining on their schedule on Saturday when they travel to East Lansing to take on the Michigan State Spartans at the Breslin Center, with tip-off set for 1:30 p.m.
The Badgers bounced back from an ugly 77-73 overtime loss to the Oregon Ducks with a 26-point victory over the Washington Huskies on Tuesday, getting back in the win column and remaining in third place in the Big Ten standings.
Now, they have arguably their biggest challenge of the season on Saturday, as they take on first-place Michigan State with a chance to improve in the Big Ten standings and get inside the Top 10 of the AP Poll.
Michigan State is currently 14-3 in Big Ten play, while the Badgers are 12-5 with three games to go for the latter. The Michigan Wolverines are in between the two at 13-3, coming in at second in the conference.
What are the scenarios and implications for the Badgers with their game on Saturday?
Win over Michigan State
The most ideal scenario for the Badgers comes with a win over the Spartans, as it checks off a number of major boxes with three games to go in the season.
First, it would be a huge victory for Wisconsin from a resume perspective, as a road win over the Spartans would probably check out as their best win this year.
Moreover, the win would be a big morale-booster for the Badgers, as they’d be peaking at the right time, giving them good momentum heading into the Big Ten Tournament.
A win would get the Badgers to 13-5 in the conference, putting them a game behind Michigan State and a half game back of Michigan (their result against Rutgers tonight could change that).
With winnable games in their final two Big Ten contests, the Badgers could come very close to locking that coveted top-four seed in the conference postseason tournament, earning a double-bye.
As for the NCAA Tournament, Wisconsin is currently teetering on the brink between a No. 2 and a No. 3 seed. This win would solidify the Badgers as a No. 2 seed, bumping Michigan State down and likely gets the team inside the Top 10 of the AP Poll as well.
From there, the Badgers would be in a favorable spot to maintain that No. 2 seed, finishing the season against Minnesota and Penn State.
Loss to Michigan State
If the Badgers lose, a can of worms begins to open.
Wisconsin would fall to 12-6 in conference play, giving the chance for both UCLA and Maryland to jump them with wins, as the Terrapins and Bruins both beat the Badgers earlier in the season.
That would potentially drop Wisconsin to the No. 5 seed, taking their fate out of their hands with two games to go to earn that double-bye.
Wisconsin would also likely end as a No. 3 seed instead and could be at risk of losing out on the chance to play in Milwaukee in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, which would provide a big home-court advantage.
The loss could also expose some more of Wisconsin’s flaws, as some were seen in their loss to Oregon last weekend, providing some more questions to ask heading into March Madness.
Ultimately, a loss wouldn’t hurt the Badgers too much, but it takes away some of their current opportunities to have a favorable postseason outlook, both in the Big Ten Tournament and the NCAA Tournament.