How can the Badgers pull off the improbable upset on Saturday night?
The Wisconsin Badgers are set to face off against the Oregon Ducks on Saturday, looking to pull off an improbable upset against the No. 1 team in the country. Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. on NBC at Camp Randall Stadium, marking Wisconsin’s third consecutive primetime game.
Wisconsin comes into this one at a crucial point in their season, as they most recently lost to the Iowa Hawkeyes 42-10 in an ugly blowout in a rivalry matchup. They now sit with a 5-4 record with just three games left in the season, needing one more win to become bowl-eligible.
They face their toughest challenge of the year with a 10-0 Oregon team coming to town, beating each of their last four opponents by at least three touchdowns. The Ducks have been the best team in college football this year, most notably escaping with a 32-31 victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes earlier in the season en route to an undefeated record.
Here are three keys to win for Wisconsin against Oregon on Saturday.
Establish the run
The Badgers have had a tough time establishing the run in each of their last two games. Tawee Walker had just 59 yards on 22 carries against Penn State and followed that up with 52 yards on 16 carries against Iowa.
Wisconsin’s offensive line has been the strong suit of the team this year, having elite pass protection rates, which has helped out quarterback Braedyn Locke in the pocket. But, they haven’t been as strong in the run game, which has also been in part due to opposing defenses placing a big emphasis on their fronts, daring Wisconsin to throw the ball.
That means the Badgers have to have top-end execution in the run game on Saturday, which in return can slow down the nature of the game in Wisconsin’s favor, not allowing Oregon to run away with this one early.
Walker will be instrumental in carrying the load on the ground, but Wisconsin will also need explosives from true freshman Darrion Dupree when he’s on the field. If those explosives aren’t generated, it may be a rough day for the Badgers.
Win the turnover battle
One of the biggest detriments for the Badgers this season has been turnovers.
Quarterback Braedyn Locke has thrown an interception in every start this season, having eight in six starts thus far. That included a two-interception game against the Iowa Hawkeyes, where the first one ended up being a major turning point early in the game.
Locke has got to take care of the football against a team that capitalizes on opportunities at a high rate. The Badgers obviously have to move the ball through the air with some success as well, but their chance for an upset goes up significantly if they just manage to take care of the ball.
Overall, Wisconsin ranks 105th in the country with 1.8 giveaways per game. That isn’t going to cut it against Oregon.
Additionally, Wisconsin’s defense needs to be opportunistic. The Ducks have been really good at limiting turnovers, ranking 19th in the nation with just 0.9 giveaways per game, thanks to quality play from quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
Wisconsin has forced turnovers at times, but still ranks 81st in the nation in takeaways per game (1.3), with a good amount surprisingly coming off special teams. The Badgers have just three interceptions and three forced fumbles defensively, with the other six turnovers coming via their special teams’ units.
Wisconsin’s secondary hasn’t really gotten many opportunities for turnovers. Ricardo Hallman, who had a nation-high seven interceptions a season ago has been targeted the fourth-least of any qualified defensive back in the FBS. Teams just aren’t throwing his way.
Instead, teams target the other side of the field, but more so the middle of the field to take advantage of Wisconsin’s defense in the passing game.
However, the Badgers haven’t been opportunistic in trying to create the turnovers either. That was an emphasis earlier in the offseason, but hasn’t come to fruition enough in 2024.
This is a tough two-fold ask. Wisconsin needs to limit turnovers on the offensive side of the ball, which they’ve struggled with, while finding a way to be opportunistic on the defensive end, which hasn’t happened much this year.
Stop the run
When it comes to Oregon’s offensive attack, many will point to the team’s explosiveness in the air, which makes sense as Dillon Gabriel is a Heisman candidate throwing to two NFL-caliber receivers in Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart as his main options.
Johnson likely won’t suit up on Saturday, but Stewart and wideout Traeshon Holden could be focal parts of the gameplan for the Ducks as they look to maintain their explosiveness.
However, it’s even more imperative that the Badgers stop the run on Saturday. Wisconsin’s defensive woes have consistently originated from the run game. The Badgers allow a whopping 169.8 yards on the ground per game, and Oregon has a solid attack with Jordan James leading the charge behind a solid offensive line.
If Oregon is able to get things going on the ground, they’ll be able to find their plays in the air and pull off a comfortable victory. If the Badgers find some success against the run, they’ll have a chance to put the Ducks into more difficult situations.