Wisconsin has a favorable early draw heading into the NCAA Tournament
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The Wisconsin Badgers are set to kick off their NCAA Tournament with a first-round matchup against the Montana Grizzlies on Thursday in the No. 3 vs. No. 14 matchup in the East Region.
It’s a quick turnaround for the Badgers, who just played four games in four days leading up to Sunday’s Big Ten Championship Game, where Wisconsin looked fatigued and fell short in a 59-53 loss.
Now, they have to head out to Denver, playing in one of the first games of the tournament on Thursday. Not only do they have a quick turnaround, but Wisconsin will also have to play at altitude against teams more accustomed to those environments.
Nonetheless, Wisconsin has put together a strong season backed by elite offensive efficiency metrics and near-elite defensive numbers, especially over the second half of the year.
So, what is a realistic ceiling for the Badgers in the NCAA Tournament? Let’s break it down by matchup.
First Round
While I did mention the unfavorable circumstances with the draw for the Badgers, Wisconsin actually matches up very well with Montana in the first round.
The Grizzlies have one player over 6’5 who plays at least 15 minutes a game, instead relying on a plethora of guards for their minutes and scoring. Even then, their top forward is 6’8, 250-pound Te’Jon Sawyer, who averages 23.7 minutes and only 3.9 rebounds per game.
Instead, 6’5, 210-pound wing Joe Pridgen leads the Grizzlies in rebounding at 6.9 per game. So, the Badgers have a clear size advantage, which bodes well for them in winning the rebounding battle and limiting second-chance points for Montana.
The Badgers play best offensively when they work inside-out and that should happen against Montana. The Grizzlies don’t have a good matchup for Steven Crowl. If they double team, the Badgers should be able to create open shots elsewhere. If not, they have a mismatch down low.
Wisconsin is 17.5-point favorite. Even with the circumstances, I don’t see them facing many issues in the first round.
Montana is an okay offensive team (98th in KenPom), poor defensively (290th in KenPom), and don’t play at a fast tempo. So, there aren’t really any factors that stand out where the Badgers have a disadvantage.
Second Round
Wisconsin will face the winner of VCU and BYU if they move to the second round.
BYU is coming in hot, as they were riding a nine-game winning streak before their loss to Houston in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals. That stretch included wins over Kansas, Arizona, and Iowa State (2x).
They’ve got an elite offense (No. 11 in KenPom), and an alright defense (No. 68 in KenPom), but they also don’t play a fast pace. That’s similar to the Badgers, who are a top-15 offense, but a much better defense (No. 27 in KenPom).
The Cougars have an elite wing with Richie Saunders, who averaged 16 points on 50.9 percent from the field and 43.3 percent from three. The Badgers also have an elite wing with John Tonje, who should be an All-American this season.
BYU scores 81 points a game, shooting well with 48.2/37.4/70.2 splits, but that free throw number certainly stands out. They’re also deep, like the Badgers, as 10 players see at least 11 minutes per game.
They also have some size, but centers Fousseyni Traore and Keba Keita stand at 6’6, 240 pounds and 6’7, 216 pounds, respectively. Still, BYU was one of the better rebounding teams in the Big 12, averaging 37.5 per game, which was fourth in the conference, while allowing only 31.5 per game defensively, which was the best mark.
The Cougars are susceptible to threes, so that could play in Wisconsin’s favor, but this seems like two similarly matched teams, apart from the seven-footers, with the Badgers just being better defensively.
If VCU advances as the No. 11 seed, that would be an interesting matchup, as the Commodores are a better defensive team (No. 23 in KenPom) than they are an offensive team (No. 41 in KenPom).
The Commodores also are one of the slower-paced teams in the country, so Wisconsin could look to push in transition more, but once again, size is a factor.
VCU has three 6’10 players, but only one of them, Christian Fermin, weighs above 220 pounds, so the Badgers have an advantage with Steven Crowl.
VCU is the more-well rounded team of the two potential second-round matchups, as four players average double figures, while another, Jack Clark, is nearly there at 9.6 points per game.
The Commodores don’t shoot the ball as well, hitting 44.6 percent of their shots and 33.4 percent from deep.
VCU and Wisconsin would be a more slower-paced defensive action, but the Badgers have the advantage with free throws in both matchups, which always is a big factor in March.
Overall, the Badgers would likely be favored in both matchups if they were to move on.
Sweet Sixteen
Two wins would put the Badgers with a potential matchup against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Sweet Sixteen, assuming they win their first two games as well.
And this is where the matchup gets tough for the Badgers.
Alabama is the best offense in the country and they play at the fastest pace in the NCAA this year, which poses problems for Wisconsin. The Badgers have struggled in transition defense, and the Crimson Tide match up well against Wisconsin overall.
Alabama is also a sound defensive team, ranking 32nd in KenPom, despite having such a high-flying offense, making them a tough team to beat. Ultimately, in a regular year, they would have a strong argument for a No. 1 seed.
The Crimson Tide are very well-rounded, having star Mark Sears, but also five other players who average double figures. They shoot the ball efficiently, push the pace, and have a plethora of shooters to match their interior attack.
Realistically, I think this is where the Badgers bow out in the tournament, which would very much still be a success just getting to the second weekend. But, I don’t see them beating Alabama in the Sweet Sixteen if that proves to be the matchup.