I break down the team’s chances of reaching Round of 32, Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight and Final Four.
Like me, I presume that you weren’t overjoyed by the No. 3 seed Wisconsin Badgers’ head-scratching relegation to high-altitude Denver, where they’ll be playing Montana early Thursday afternoon, with the winner of BYU/VCU waiting in the wings. Seeing Kentucky and Iowa State land in Milwaukee with objectively lesser resumes was a tough pill to swallow for Wisconsin fans.
But we are where we are, so I’m going to break down the chances of various outcomes happening to the Badgers to try and make some sense of this. (The percentage listed is the likelihood that a given round will be where Wisconsin will bow out.)
Losing to Montana (5%): I want to be clear here by saying that Montana is a quality team with some outstanding shooters. It’s also arguably the weakest 14-seed, in contrast to 2022 when Wisconsin got stuck with Colgate who took that team to the brink before bowing late.
Can Wisconsin lose? Yes. Is it likely? No, and Vegas agrees, installing the Badgers as 17.5-point favorites, although some are still calling a Montana upset.
Losing in Round of 32 to BYU/VCU (35%): There is no more popular upset pick in this tournament right now than the winner of BYU/VCU beating Wisconsin, and even noted Wisconsin homer Andy Katz is calling a BYU win here.
In fact, one needs to probe a bit if you want to find an “expert” who actually has Wisconsin winning this game. And I sort of get it. The Badgers just played four games in four days in the Big Ten Tournament and then had to turn around and travel across the country to the Mile High City to play one of the earliest Thursday contests, with one of two stacked and red-hot teams waiting in the wings.
No, this is not ideal. BYU plays its games at elevation, can shoot the lights out, and will have a substantial crowd advantage given its robust Denver area alumni base. VCU is a really stout defensive squad on a heater.
But when has Wisconsin made a Sweet 16 without a robust challenge? I can’t think of one. It’s simply what good teams need to do to reach that rarified air, and Gard’s guys will have to lock in and play one of their best games of the season to advance.
Losing in Sweet Sixteen (40%): If you believe in the seeding, this would have Wisconsin facing Mark Sears and No. 2 seed Alabama in the Elite Eight. Not a great matchup to say the least.
Bama has plus shooting and rebounding numbers and won several huge games this season in the absolutely stacked SEC. But if Wisconsin gets past BYU/VCU, I give it a puncher’s chance to win a shootout versus the Crimson Tide.
Yes, Greg Gard’s lads will be robust underdogs, but would a win here shock me? No, because the Badgers will have to be playing well to have gotten this far.
Losing in Elite Eight: (10%): This would likely mean a dream/nightmare date with Cooper Flagg and Duke, with subplots abounding, including Kon Knueppel, one of Gard’s most highly sought recruits in his tenure, playing for the Blue Devils.
Look, Wisconsin probably won’t win this, but all of the pressure will be on the Blue Devils. Almost nobody will give the Badgers a chance, and there are a lot worse scenarios to face than that. Also, if it’s not Duke, then a No. 4 seed is the highest this team could be, and that’s Purdue. Wisconsin is better than Purdue.
For all of the non-math majors out there, these numbers mean that I’m giving Wisconsin a 10 percent chance to make the Final Four, which feels higher than most are giving them. A lot of things will have to bounce right, but this is a time of the year when magic can happen, so dream big, Badgers everywhere.