Wisconsin could have to play four games in four days this week.
The Wisconsin Badgers are headed to Indianapolis this week to play in the Big Ten Tournament, where they’ll debut on Thursday as the No. 5 seed.
Wisconsin is coming off a disappointing 86-75 loss at home to the Penn State Nittany Lions, who finished the season with the second-worst record in the Big Ten.
In the loss, the Badgers shot poorly from three once again, hitting just 32.3 percent of their attempts, while really struggling defensively in the loss.
Entering the game, Wisconsin had an opportunity to clinch a top-four seed in the Big Ten with a win. But, their loss dropped them to No. 5, as the UCLA Bruins climbed into the No. 4 seed, forcing the Badgers to play an extra game in the conference tournament.
The Badgers are heading into Indianapolis going just 2-3 in their last five games, while also struggling in their 74-67 win over Minnesota. The loss of guard Max Klesmit has loomed big for Wisconsin, and his return this week could be huge in getting back on track.
How far will the Badgers go in the Big Ten Tournament? Let’s break down the possible path for Wisconsin en route to the championship.
Thursday
Wisconsin will open up their Big Ten Tournament on Thursday, where they’ll play the winner of the No. 13 vs. No. 12 game, which is between the Northwestern Wildcats and the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Now, funny enough, Wisconsin did face adversity against both teams in their wins during the regular season, beating Northwestern in a close 75-69 game back in February before their recent 74-67 win over Minnesota where they didn’t have Max Klesmit.
However, both games were on the road and Wisconsin finished well in both wins. On a neutral floor where their fans usually travel well, they should be favored well against either team, especially if Klesmit returns.
Friday
Should Wisconsin win their first game, they’ll head on to the quarterfinals Friday, where they’ll face off against the No. 4-seeded UCLA Bruins.
While the Bruins are ranked higher, this could also be like a home environment for the Badgers, given the location. Wisconsin had a close 85-83 loss to the Bruins on the road back in January.
Since then, their defense has dramatically improved, and they’ve figured out more how to play against smaller, more athletic teams like the Bruins. Containing sophomore center Aday Mara, who had 22 points on 7/7 shooting in the first game, will be key, but the Badgers could also be favored in this matchup.
Wisconsin played really well offensively against a strong defensive team, scoring 83 points by shooting 51 percent from the field and 50 percent from deep, hitting 15 threes. So, they’ve managed to crack UCLA’s formula with strong three-point shooting before, which will be crucial if a rematch is to happen.
Saturday
If Wisconsin wins their first two games, they’ll put themselves in position for a potential rematch with the No. 1-seeded Michigan State Spartans, who will take on the winner of the No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchup in the quarterfinals between the Indiana Hoosiers and Oregon Ducks.
Wisconsin played Michigan State really close in their matchup earlier this month, staying in a tight game despite shooting 5/32 from three and having their worst offensive performance of the year.
The Spartans can be a tough matchup for Wisconsin, but they were without Max Klesmit in that game, and the guards combined to shoot 12/41 (29.2 percent) from the field as a result.
If Wisconsin can get momentum and shoot the three better in the two games leading up to Saturday, they’ll be well-positioned against the best team in the conference.
But, as it’ll be in the games before, three-point shooting and keeping the ball in front of them defensively will be extremely important for the Badgers success.
Sunday
If Wisconsin wins three straight, they’ll find themselves in the Big Ten Championship Game, which is a similar position to where they were last year.
After a poor February in 2024, the Badgers rallied in the Big Ten Tournament, entering as the No. 5 seed. They first blew out No. 12 Maryland 87-56 in the second round before getting past Northwestern 70-61 in the No. 5 vs. No. 4 game.
Momentum hit an all-time high in Wisconsin’s 76-75 overtime win over No. 1 Purdue, where Chucky Hepburn and Max Klesmit played hero in the victory before the Badgers fell just short in a 93-87 loss to No. 2 Illinois in the final.
Wisconsin has a chance to repeat that this week, arguably having a better team in a conference with tons of parity.
Overall Thoughts
Despite having the third-best odds to win the Big Ten Tournament, I named the Badgers as a sleeper to win the tournament as the No. 5 seed.
Why? Well, Wisconsin was one of the top two teams in the Big Ten nationally for much of the last two months before their recent slip in conference play. They were even seen as a No. 2 seed heading into their game against Michigan State.
Ultimately, it was the loss to Oregon that cost them a double-bye, although the Penn State game wasn’t any better.
The Badgers haven’t looked like themselves in the last few games. But, that’s because they aren’t themselves. Max Klesmit is a crucial part of this team, as the Badgers are a group predicated on players knowing and executing their roles at a high level. With missing players, that formula gets disjointed and players don’t look as comfortable on both sides of the ball.
Klesmit should return for the Big Ten Tournament, although the idea of playing four games in four days coming off an injury seems hefty. I do wonder if Wisconsin load manages Klesmit this week to better prepare for the NCAA Tournament next weekend, but the senior is a competitor and will want to be on the court.
Ultimately, Wisconsin’s success this week comes down to a few factors: 1) Klesmit’s health and immediate impact 2) three-point shooting, and 3) on-ball and ball-screen defense.
The Badgers have slipped in those last two categories recently. In their recent 2-3 stretch, Wisconsin has shot 37/143 (25.8 percent) from three, while shooting 28.6 three-point attempts per game. That’s awful.
They’ve also had some uncharacteristic second-half collapses, namely against the Oregon Ducks, Penn State Nittany Lions, and Michigan State Spartans. That has to change in the tournament, but having that veteran experience and a senior-laden rotation should help with that cause.
Wisconsin has the potential to get to the Big Ten Championship. But, if they don’t turn the page with their shooting and defense, they could easily be an early bow-out in a close game.