We break down the teams, matchups, odds and more ahead of the Big Ten tournament.
The 2025 Big Ten Tournament is set to begin on Wednesday, as six teams will battle in the first round of the revamped tournament that now consists of 15 teams, with four earning double byes.
Tiebreakers led the way on a hectic final day of the regular season, as the UCLA Bruins edged out a three-way tiebreaker with the Wisconsin Badgers and Purdue Boilermakers for the No. 4 seed. The Nebraska Cornhuskers had a late demise, as their loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes dropped them into a five-way tiebreaker for the final four spots in the Tournament, with the former being the team left out.
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Wisconsin is +600 to win the tourney and claim the Big Ten’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
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As the tournament is set to begin, let’s break down the favorites, sleepers, and provide an overview of this year’s Big Ten Tournament.
Favorites
When it comes to favorites, FanDuel Sportsbook has the No. 1-seeded Michigan State Spartans as the leaders with +250 odds, which is tied for the lowest odds of any favorite of all the conference tournaments. That shows the level of parity there is in the Big Ten this year, although Michigan State was well ahead of the pack with a 17-3 conference record this season.
Behind them, the Maryland Terrapins come in second with +370 odds as the No. 2 seed, as they come into the tournament hot, being winners in seven of their last eight, with the lone loss coming on a buzzer-beater to Michigan State.
But, then the surprises start to come. The No. 5 seed Wisconsin Badgers have the third-highest odds to win the tournament at +600, despite their late season slide where they went 3-3 in the final three weeks. The Badgers were destined for a top-four seed prior to their loss in the season finale to the Penn State Nittany Lions, and have been projected as one of the top Big Ten teams in NCAA Tournament predictions, hovering around the three-seed line.
The Illinois Fighting Illini, Purdue Boilermakers, and UCLA Bruins are all tied for fourth at +750 odds, despite being scattered across the bracket. Illinois is the No. 7 seed, but showed in their win over Purdue that they’re capable of winning big games, which has happened all season. Purdue slid to end the year, losing five of their last seven, but have an All-American in Braden Smith and strong complementary pieces with Trey Kaufmann-Renn and Fletcher Loyer to make a run. UCLA is led by their elite defense, which ranks top-15 in the nation according to KenPom, and will hope the double-bye can propel them up.
Sleepers
Michigan
Dare I say the No. 3 seed is a sleeper? Well, the No. 3-seeded Michigan Wolverines are all the way at seventh with +1600 odds to win the Big Ten Tournament.
Michigan did lose four of their last six, but they came to Michigan State (x2), Illinois, and Maryland. The loss to Illinois (93-73) was especially ugly, but the Wolverines did rattle off six straight wins before that stretch.
The story with Michigan this year is that they’ve won a lot of close games (11 of their 14 conference wins have come within five points) and lost some ugly ones (four losses by 13+ points). But, they have an elite point-forward in Danny Wolf and a defense that ranks inside the top-20 according to KenPom.
Looking at their path, they could see Purdue in the quarterfinals, who they beat 75-73 in February, which could set up a matchup with Maryland for a championship. Purdue has struggled recently and Maryland isn’t an elite offensive team, so the path to the final is there.
Indiana
This one is tough, because Indiana has looked really bad at certain stretches of the season, losing by 25 in back-to-back games against Iowa and Illinois.
But, after a stretch where they lost seven of eight games, the Hoosiers have really turned things around, beating Michigan State on the road by four and blowing out Purdue 73-58. They come into the tournament winning five of their last seven, playing close to UCLA in one of those losses.
They’re one of the more unpredictable teams, but they’re riding hot at the right time and a win over Oregon would put them in a quarterfinals matchup against Michigan State, who they’ve already beaten this year.
Those two wins would have them riding the hottest of any team heading into the final day of the Tournament, so don’t count out Indiana as a sleeper at +4000 odds.
Wisconsin
Yes, they have the third-highest odds. But, up until a late-season collapse, the Badgers were seen as the best team in the Big Ten by the AP Top 25, KenPom, and Big Ten projections.
Then came untimely losses to Oregon, Michigan State, and Penn State, dropping them out of the top four of the Big Ten and away from the coveted double-bye.
Still, Wisconsin’s path to victory seems feasible. They’ll play the winner of Northwestern and Minnesota, two teams they beat on the road this year. Then comes a matchup against UCLA, who the Badgers lost to by two in January on the road in a poor defensive performance.
But, they’ve played much better on that end the last two months, now ranking inside the top-35 in defensive efficiency according to KenPom, which suits them better in a possible rematch.
They could draw Michigan State in the semifinals, but Wisconsin was extremely competitive against the Spartans earlier in March, despite shooting an ugly 5/32 from three. Just even 25 percent from deep could’ve gotten the job done there for the Badgers.
Now, Wisconsin is favored higher by the odds. But, looking outside of the top four seeds, it seems they’ve got the capability to make a run for the Big Ten Championship, given how well they played throughout the course of the season. Remember, they were in this exact spot last year as a No. 5 seed and made it to the finals.
Overview
This year’s Big Ten Tournament seems much different than other conference tournaments, as there is a lot of parity in the conference.
That was seen from the beginning of the season, where the Big Ten preseason media poll had a much different prediction than what ultimately happened. In the end, the preseason No. 5 (Michigan State), No. 9 (Michigan), and No. 10 (Maryland) ended up in the top four, while the No. 12 team (Wisconsin) ended as the fifth seed.
The double-bye is certainly convenient in a physical conference with a number of quality teams, but there should be fireworks this year in the Big Ten.
Here are the seeds and the matchups for the first rounds of the Tournament.
Wednesday
Game 1: No. 13 Northwestern vs. No. 12 Minnesota
Game 2: No. 15 Iowa vs. No. 10 Ohio State
Game 3: No. 14 USC vs. No. 11 Rutgers
Thursday
Game 4: No. 9 Indiana vs. No. 8 Oregon
Game 5: Winner of Game 1 vs. No. 5 Wisconsin
Game 6: Winner of Game 2 vs. No. 7 Illinois
Game 7: Winner of Game 3 vs. No. 6 Purdue
Friday
Game 8: Winner of Game 4 vs. No. 1 Michigan State
Game 9: Winner of Game 5 vs. No. 4 UCLA
Game 10: Winner of Game 6 vs. No. 2 Maryland
Game 11: Winner of Game 7 vs. No. 3 Michigan
Saturday
Game 12: Winner of Game 8 vs. Winner of Game 9
Game 13: Winner of Game 10 vs. Winner of Game 11
Sunday
Game 14: Winner of Game 12 vs. Winner of Game 13