Let’s take a gambling-themed perusal of what lies ahead for the Golden Eagles and what it will take to go to San Antonio and the Final Four.
On Friday evening, YOUR Marquette Golden Eagles will get their pathway through the 2024 NCAA men’s basketball tournament underway. We’re going to take a moment here to look at the potential pathways and speed bumps that could stand between Shaka Smart’s Golden Eagles and a possible Cinderella run to San Antonio for the Final Four as the South Region Champions.
Along the way, we’re going to be mentioning gambling odds for various teams, and all of those odds are brought to you by FanDuel. They’re up to date and accurate as of Tuesday morning, so take into account whether they’ve gone up or down when you’re looking at them live to help yourself wager responsibly.
Let’s first start with some generic odds for Marquette. As of right now, here’s MU’s odds for various destinations in the NCAA tournament:
To win the national championship: +19,000
To play in the national championship game: +6000
To reach the Final Four: +2000
To reach the Elite 8: +700
To reach the Sweet 16: +300
To reach the Round of 32: -190
FIRST ROUND
This is the only part of this that’s set in stone right now, as we obviously know that #7 Marquette is playing #10 New Mexico in the first round. The Golden Eagles are currently a -3.5 favorite over the Lobos, so yeah, the odds are a little bit longer for New Mexico to make a big run. They’ve got odds of +6500 to make it to the Final Four. More on the Lobos when we get to our official game preview on Thursday.
SECOND ROUND
Marquette is in Cleveland for the first round, and a win in the first round will send them along to a second round game on Sunday against either #2 Michigan State or #15 Bryant. The Spartans are favored by 17.5 points right now, so yep, they’ve got much better odds to get to the Final Four than the Bulldogs: +490 for MSU, but +25,000 for Bryant.
Marquette is 23-33 all time against Michigan State, with the most recent meeting coming in the 2023 NCAA tournament. The two teams met as part of a 2/7 second round game that year, but their seeds are switched around this time. MSU has won the last five meetings with Marquette, but that’s misleading, as only the three most recent games have transpired not just this century (2007, 2014, and 2023), but since 1959. If we see a stunner, that would set up Marquette’s first ever meeting with Bryant.
SWEET 16
If we presume that Marquette advances to the Sweet 16, their most likely opponent, at least by seed line expectations, would be #3 seeded Iowa State. That’s a familiar opponent for Marquette, and I don’t mean because they have an extensive series with the Cyclones. I mean that Marquette went to Ames to play Iowa State as part of the Big East/Big 12 Battle earlier this season. That game ended 81-70 in favor of the home team, and that moved the all-time series to favoring Marquette 5-4.
The other favored seed in the first round in this pod of games is #6 Ole Miss. Marquette is 2-0 against the Rebels in program history, with the most recent meeting coming back in November of 2021 as part of the Charleston Classic.
It’s possible that #14 Lipscomb could find their way past Iowa State in the first round, particularly since the Cyclones won’t have Keshon Gilbert available to them. That might be a little bit fun, and not just because it would mean a #14 seed made it to the Sweet 16, but because Marquette has never played Lipscomb before. We can’t rule out the First Four team that advances to play Ole Miss getting through to the Sweet 16, because it seems that a First Four team always manages to win at least one game every single year. That game is between #11 San Diego State and #11 North Carolina, and somehow, even though the Tar Heels are the biggest question mark as far as their entry into the field of 68, FanDuel has them favored against the Aztecs at -5.5 right now. Marquette is 3-1 all time against San Diego State with the most recent meeting coming in December of 2013, while the series with UNC stands at 5-2 favoring the team from Tobacco Road. The most recent meeting in that series came back in the 2022 NCAA tournament first round, and the less said about that game, the better.
Here’s the odds for those five teams to reach the Final Four.
Iowa State: +550
Ole Miss: +2100
San Diego State: +17,000
North Carolina: +4000
Lipscomb: +25,000
ELITE 8
This section’s going to get a little bit busy, because there’s eight possible opponents for Marquette if they get to . The obvious answer is that #1 seed Auburn is the heavy favorite to make it to the Elite 8 from the top half of the bracket, and #4 Texas A&M is the second most likely option. History would favor Marquette if they get to tangle with Auburn, as they are a perfect 2-0 against the Tigers although the two sides haven’t met since 1998. Texas A&M provides an interesting possible matchup because 1) Buzz Williams and [gestures broadly] and 2) the all time series has been tied up at 1-1 since A&M beat Marquette 77-69 back in 1985.
Auburn is waiting for the results of a First Four game to find out who their opponent is, so there’s a chance, even if ever so slight, that it could be #16 Alabama State or #16 St. Francis getting through to face Marquette. Alabama State would be a first time opponent for MU, while SFU would be a fourth time foe. That series stands at 2-1 Marquette with St. Francis getting their win back in 1956. Texas A&M faces #13 Yale in their first round game, and it’s been a long time since MU has seen the Bulldogs. That series is knotted at one game each, and Marquette won the most recent contest…. in 1965.
In the middle of the top half of the region is an 8/9 game between Louisville and Creighton, as well as a 5/12 game between Michigan and UC San Diego. Getting the Cardinals or the Bluejays for some Bird-On-Bird Violence in the Elite Eight would be an incredibly familiar situation for Marquette, as MU is 27-43 all time against Louisville after years together in Conference USA and the Big East, and of course Creighton and Marquette are currently Big East rivals with the Golden Eagles holding the 60-41 series edge at the moment. There have been 20 games between Marquette and Michigan, but the Wolverines have won 14 times including 79-61 in the most recent meeting back in 2016. The Tritons would be a first time opponent for Marquette, but that has more to do with the fact that they’ve only been a Division 1 team since the 2020-21 season.
Here’s the odds for those teams to reach the Final Four.
Auburn: -105
Texas A&M: +1600
Michigan: +2200
Louisville: +1900
Creighton: +3600
UC San Diego: +5000
Yale: +17,000
Alabama State: +25,000
St. Francis: +25,000
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