The Golden Eagles seem like they’re pretty safe for the NCAA tournament even without a sparkling record against tournament caliber teams.
31 matches are in the books for Marquette volleyball, all they can do now is wait and see.
Marquette wrapped up the Big East tournament on Saturday with a 3-0 loss to #5 ranked Creighton in the championship match in a battle of the clear top two teams in the conference this season. While losing’s not fun, it’s also not a surprise that a team like the Bluejays, one that can actually say that they have a shot at the national championship this season, was able to smother out MU’s chances of pulling an upset.
But Marquette is still a good volleyball team, and that’s why we’ll be watching the NCAA tournament selection show this evening on ESPN. Here’s what Marquette’s selection profile looks like on Sunday morning:
Record: 23-8
RPI: #17
Evollve Ranking: #33
Record vs RPI 1-25: 1-7
vs RPI 26-50: 1-0
vs RPI 51-100: 10-1
vs RPI 100+: 11-0
This is the part of the show where I would like to remind everyone that whatever doubt there is about the Golden Eagles getting an at-large berth to the tournament exists because of what half of the Big East is doing. It’s a two-fold issue.
- It’s not just that Creighton and Marquette are the only NCAA tournament caliber teams in the conference with everyone else sitting somewhere south of #70 in the RPI on Sunday morning. Xavier, Seton Hall, Georgetown, Butler, and Providence are all sub-190 in the RPI, with GU, BU, and PC all sub-200. They are dragging down the RPI for the rest of the conference.
- Marquette head coach Ryan Theis knows this is going to happen every single year, and so he schedules up. In this case, that turned into matches against RPI #1, #4, #8, #12, and #15, not to mention the three matches against RPI #6 Creighton. Marquette went 1-7 in those eight contests with the win coming against RPI #15 Dayton and so they have have a 2-7 record against tournament caliber opponents this year.
If Marquette gets in — and to be clear, I’m pretty comfortable saying that they will, but stick with me here — it’s because they played the 66th toughest schedule in the country according to Evollve. To put it another way: Even though Marquette went 6-5 in non-conference matches this season, the Golden Eagles still hold the #20 spot in non-conference RPI.
I know I spent a lot of this saying “oooh, I don’t know….” but I’ll close on telling you not to worry and to watch the selection show with the idea that you know you’re going to hear Marquette’s name called. The selection process works like this: They identify the top 32 teams, then make sure they have the top 16 right as they will be the first and second round hosts. Then they slot the next 16 teams into seeds 5 through 8 in each region. After that, they fill out the rest of the field.
The point is thus: If you’re a seeded team, you’re a top half of the field team at absolute worst.
On November 27th, NCAA.com’s Michella Chester published her tournament projection. She’s not on the committee, she’s just an NCAA employee doing a projection.
She has Marquette as the second best #7 seed and 13 spots clear of the cut line for at-large teams.
If she’s right, Marquette’s got nothing to worry about…….. other than the fact that they’ll have a potential second round match in Wisconsin’s building against the Badgers with a spot in the Sweet 16 on the line.
2024 NCAA Volleyball Tournament Selection Show
Date: Sunday, December 1, 2024
Time: 5pm Central
Television: ESPN
Streaming: WatchESPN.com