The Golden Eagles get a chance to cross the Musketeers off their 2024-25 checklist as the first repeat Big East opponent of the season.
#7 Marquette Golden Eagles (15-2, 6-0 Big East) vs Xavier Musketeers (11-7, 3-4 Big East)
Date: Saturday, January 18, 2025
Time: Noon Central
Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Marquette Stats Leaders
Points: Kam Jones, 19.6 ppg
Rebounds: David Joplin, 5.5 rpg
Assists: Kam Jones, 6.7 apg
Xavier Stats Leaders
Points: Ryan Conwell, 17.1 ppg
Rebounds: Zach Freemantle, 7.6 rpg
Assists: Dayvion McKnight, 4.8 apg
KenPom.com Rankings
Marquette: #13
Xavier: #52
Game Projection: Marquette has an 83% chance of victory, with a predicted score of 79-69.
The Stakes: Marquette is looking to remain unbeaten in Big East contests and move to 7-0 in the league. Xavier is trying to get to .500 in Big East play for the first time this season after starting 1-4.
Last Time Out: Marquette was on the verge of coasting through Cintas Center with a victory, taking a 61-46 lead with just over seven minutes left. From there, Xavier went on an 18-2 run to take a lead for a moment before MU bounced back out in front by five thanks to some Xavier turnovers. MU had some weird defense and some missed free throws in the final minute or so, and Ryan Conwell couldn’t get past Chase Ross along the sideline as time expired in a two point Marquette victory.
Since Last We Met: The Musketeers have gotten Zach Freemantle back in the lineup. The December 21st meeting between these two teams was the second of three games that the 6’9” forward would miss with a leg injury suffered late in Xavier’s loss to Cincinnati. They got past Seton Hall by 22 in the third and final game without Freemantle, but getting his 17 points and seven rebounds per game back in the lineup wasn’t an immediate boon to the proceedings.
Xavier lost by six on the road against Georgetown in Freemantle’s first game back as they couldn’t slow down Malik Mack on his way to 26 points. Four days later, they fell behind by double digits in the first 10 minutes against St. John’s and never quite got back into it in a 10 point home loss.
Visiting DePaul wrapped up in a win for the Musketeers, but they were down 20-17 at the seven minute mark of the first half. The game flipped when they put up a 28-3 run bridging halftime, and then answered a DePaul run with 10 straight in the second half. Finally, they’re coming off a home win over Villanova that very much looked like it was going to be a loss. An 8 point deficit at halftime got wiped out because the Wildcats couldn’t do squat about Ryan Conwell after intermission. He poured in 28 of his 34 points in the second half, including 13 in the final two minutes alone starting with a three-pointer at the 1:40 mark that tied the game at 58.
Tempo Free Fun: It’s not a hot take to say that we’re looking at an entirely different Xavier team on Saturday than the one that Marquette went against in Cincinnati back in December. Zach Freemantle is good enough to make that kind of impact on the team all by himself.
However, while those nearly 17 points per game jump off the page as how he makes a difference, the fact of the matter is that Xavier is kind of the same offensive team with or without Freemantle. If we head over to Hoop Explorer and filter Freemantle’s impact to only against top 200 opponents and throw out garbage time, Xavier averaging 114.6 points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength, with Freemantle…….. and 115.1 without him. I think it’s mean to say that they’re clearly better without him on the offensive side of the ball, but we can’t ignore the fact that they’re a teeeeeeeny tiny bit better.
But that doesn’t matter. If you’re XU head coach Sean Miller you take the trade off of half a point per 100 possessions when you see Freemantle’s defensive impact. With Freemantle as one of the five on the floor, Xavier allows just 91.4 points per 100 possession. In the 312 defensive possessions in the parameter I set above this season without Freemantle? 108.7 points per 100 possessions going against them. That’s a HUGE difference, and that’s the kind of thing that happens when you get a rangy, athletic, 6’9” forward who can rebound pretty well out there.
If you change it up to just Big East contests, there’s actually a nearly seven point per 100 possessions difference between Xavier’s offense with and without Freemantle, and again, they’re more efficient on offense without him, even with the New Jersey native knocking down five of his 11 long range attempts against Big East foes. But again, if you’re Sean Miller, you’ll deal with that because 1) 113.9 per 100 trips is still pretty good and 2) The Musketeers get more than 12 points per 100 possessions worse on defense.
If Marquette had a gameplan to frustrate Ryan Conwell in the first meeting, then it worked, and they should keep doing whatever their tactic was. The 6’4” Indiana State transfer guard is connecting on over 41% of his long range shots on the season and 36% in XU’s seven Big East games. Against Marquette, however, Conwell went just 1-for-6 from behind the arc and he committed three turnovers as well. In fact, Conwell didn’t score at all until he cashed a three-pointer with 4:44 to play, and that was already after Xavier’s rally was in full swing. He got his only two two-point buckets of the game in the final 30 seconds to fuel Xavier’s attempt to wrench the game away from the Golden Eagles. Conwell is coming off that 34 point outing against Villanova, and he shot 6-for-10 from behind the arc in that one. He also had a season high 14 free throw attempts, and he knocked down 12 of those. If Conwell’s still in the zone after that heater, MU’s going to have to hustle a little extra harder to shake him off his game.
The last thing we have to talk about is Marquette’s need to play a crisp and clean 40 minutes of basketball. In their last nine games, aka since the schedule kicked over to nothing but Top 50/Big East opponents:
- Marquette got down early against Iowa State, rallied to tie it at 61, then gave up a 17-2 run on their way to an 11 point loss.
- Marquette led Dayton by 13 just after halftime, gave up a 14-2 run to even it out, and then fell apart down the stretch for an eight point loss.
- Marquette let Xavier take the lead after sitting on a 15 point margin and had to white knuckle a two point win home.
- Marquette gave up runs of 10-0 and 12-0 on either side of a 26-3 run against Creighton that meant that the game was still kind of up in the air in the final five minutes.
- Marquette coughed up a 23-3 run to Georgetown and trailed by 14 late in the first half, and even after a 13-2 run, the Hoyas still took the lead with about three minutes left before MU shut the door.
- Marquette opened up a 21-10 lead on DePaul in less than six minutes and then barely dragged the game to overtime and then nearly blew a 10 point lead in the final minute of the extra session.
That’s a lot of “WHAT THE H IS THAT!” basketball since the first day of December for Marquette. Only two of those turned into losses, and yeah, it’s not every game that went weird on MU. But it is most of them, and as of late, it’s been zone defense that has been completely befuddling the Golden Eagles. MU gets the benefit of already seeing this Xavier team once this season, and the benefit of playing this one at home. Are those two things enough to get Marquette to calm down, play 40 minutes of consistent basketball, and secure a win with relatively little difficulty?
I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
Stat Watch #1: Kam Jones needs five field goals to pass George Thompson for the sixth most made field goals in Marquette history.
Stat Watch #2: David Joplin needs three three-pointers to pass Brian Wardle for the 11th most made three-pointers in Marquette history. He needs five three-pointers to become the 11th man in MU history with 200 made three-pointers.
Stat Watch #3: Kam Jones needs five three-pointers to pass Travis Diener for the third most made three-pointers in Marquette history.
Stat Watch #4: Kam Jones needs 12 points to pass Butch Lee for the 6th most points in Marquette history. He needs 26 to pass Dominic James for 5th.
Stat Watch #5: David Joplin needs two points to pass Oso Ighodaro for the 43rd most points in Marquette history. He needs 11 points to pass Andrew Rowsey for 42nd.
Marquette Last 10 Games: 8-2, and riding a six game winning streak.
Xavier Last 10 Games: 4-6, but coming in after back-to-back victories.
All-Time Series: Marquette leads, 60-27.
Current Streak: Marquette has now won five straight in this series after winning in Cincinnati earlier this season.
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