The Golden Eagles welcome the Hoyas to Fiserv Forum in an unexpected battle of Big East unbeaten teams.
#7 Marquette Golden Eagles (13-2, 4-0 Big East) vs RV Georgetown Hoyas (12-2, 3-0 Big East)
Date: Tuesday, January 7, 2025
Time: 7pm Central
Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Marquette Stats Leaders
Points: Kam Jones, 20.3 ppg
Rebounds: David Joplin, 5.5 rpg
Assists: Kam Jones, 6.5 apg
Marquette Injury Update: Junior guard Sean Jones will redshirt for the remainder of the season to continue his rehab/recovery from knee surgery.
Georgetown Stats Leaders
Points: Thomas Sorber, 15.4 ppg
Rebounds: Thomas Sorber, 8.1 rpg
Assists: Malik Mack, 4.8 apg
Georgetown Injury Update: Junior guard Jayden Epps played just four minutes off the bench in GU’s 69-63 victory over Xavier this past Friday night. He had missed the entirety of their previous game after suffering an injury late in their 61-60 road win over Seton Hall.
KenPom.com Rankings
Marquette: #10
Georgetown: #65
Game Projection: Marquette has an 88% chance of victory, with a predicted score of 79-66.
The Stakes: Yep, we’re doing a Stakes for the fifth Big East game of the season. After Tuesday night, the Big East will lose an undefeated team as both Marquette and Georgetown join UConn as the only teams who are still unbeaten against conference foes.
Wait, GEORGETOWN is in what we can call a battle for first place? Don’t skip ahead.
This Season So Far: For about two weeks, 2024-25 was looking like it had the potential to be another embarrassing Georgetown season. They were trailing Lehigh in the first half of their opener before going up eight after a 16-3 run….. and still needed a very late 11-1 run to hold on for an 85-77 victory. They were up just two on Fairfield at halftime next time out before patiently sidestepping away from the Stags for a 12 point win. Then they went into a home game against Notre Dame where they were actually favored ever so slightly…. and gave up a 19-3 run in the first eight minutes, gave up a 16-3 run after closing to within four, and just for giggles, gave up a 13-2 run in the second half so it wouldn’t feel lonely.
This caused the Hoyas to drop from #82 on KenPom.com when their season started to #119 when they tipped off game #4. Like I said: Looked bad for about two weeks.
Since then, Georgetown has lost one game, falling on the road against what appears to be a pretty good West Virginia team in the Big East/Big 12 Battle. 10-1, including smashing every buy game opponent they came across and a 3-0 start to Big East play. That 3-0 record includes absolutely crushing Creighton 81-57 in their league opener. That crushing came after halftime, as Georgetown went from up 39-35 at the 17 minute mark to up 64-41 with a bit more than eight minutes to go. They also had to sneak past Seton Hall by one point after leading by 11 with less than four minutes left and they had to fend off a late Xavier push in their most recent game.
Tempo Free Fun: We turn to the BartTorvik.com Data Sorting Method to see what all of this means.
Since losing to Notre Dame, Georgetown has been playing like the #39 team in the country. They’ve been doing this with defense, ranking #9 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Hoyas are #4 in defensive effective field goal percentage, largely because teams are shooting under 40% on two-pointers against them. The fact that opponents don’t even make 30% of their three-pointers probably helps as well.
If you take their statistical profile from their last 11 games instead of the whole season, Marquette’s chances of winning per BartTorvik.com go from 90% to just 84%.
You will notice that I have completely skipped over mentioning the Georgetown offense.
Yeah, so, they’re #134 in the country on that end during this 10-1 stretch.
Georgetown can shoot it. They’re #49 in effective field goal percentage over their last 11 games, including making 58% of their two-pointers. A lot of that is probably just “hey, get Thomas Sorber the ball!” The 6’10” freshman is living up to his top 50 prospect billing as he averages 15.4 points and 8.1 rebounds to lead the Hoyas in both departments. He’s also swatting 2.1 shots per game in his free time, and for a big man, 2.5 assists a night is pretty good. Sorber shoots 62% on two-pointers this season, although Big East foes have limited him to just 53% so far. From the outside, you have to worry about both Malik Mack and Jayden Epps, as both guys are hitting 39% on more than four three-point attempts per game.
But Georgetown has a turnover problem. Overall this season, KenPom.com has them coughing it up on 18.8% of their possessions, and that’s #257 in the country. During their 10-1 run, BartTorvik.com says the Hoyas give it away on 19% of possessions, which is #270 in the country. Micah Peavy is a particular problem for them, as he leads the team in minutes, but has a turnover rate of 21% this season. In GU’s three Big East games, that number is over 25%, and in their four games against what KenPom calls top 100 opponents, Peavy coughs it up 23.1% of the time. The 6’8” Texas native didn’t have a problem with turnovers in his last two seasons at TCU, but he’s clearly a guy that Marquette’s deflection minded defense can attack.
One question I have about this game is the availability of Jayden Epps. The 6’2” guard suffered an ankle injury against Seton Hall and missed GU’s following game against Coppin State. He came off the bench for the first time all season against Xavier, but checked out after four first half minutes and did not return. Given that it’s unfair to count that game against him, Epps was averaging 15.9 points, 2.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 2.0 steals per game up to his injury. With just three off-days between games, it feels an awful lot like Epps is doubtful at best for this game. However, if he thought he was going to be able to play with it on Friday, that means he’s closer to providing quality minutes than not heading into Tuesday night.
Stat Watch: David Joplin needs six points to pass Ron Curry for #48 on the Marquette all-time scoring list. He needs eight points to pass Rube Schulz at #47, 14 to pass Chris Crawford at #46, and 15 to pass Jae Crowder and Scott Merritt for 44th place.
Marquette Last 10 Games: 8-2, and riding a four game winning streak
Georgetown Last 10 Games: 9-1, and riding a five game winning streak
All-Time Series: Marquette leads, 23-14
Current Streak: A season sweep a year ago gave Marquette six straight victories against Georgetown. The Golden Eagles have won nine of the last 10 and 12 of the last 14.
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