The Golden Eagles head to Indianapolis to wrap up the season series with the Bulldogs
#9 Marquette Golden Eagles (17-3, 8-1 Big East) at Butler Bulldogs (9-11, 2-7 Big East)
Date: Tuesday, January 28, 2025
Time: 7:30pm Central
Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
Marquette Stats Leaders
Points: Kam Jones, 19.0 ppg
Rebounds: David Joplin, 5.3 rpg
Assists: Kam Jones, 6.5 apg
Butler Stats Leaders
Points: Jahmyl Telfort, 15.8 ppg
Rebounds: Andre Screen, 5.9 rpg
Assists: Jahmyl Telfort, 3.4 apg
KenPom.com Rankings
Marquette: #12
Butler: #83
Game Projection: Marquette has a 73% chance of victory, with a predicted score of 77-70.
Last Time Out: Marquette couldn’t hit a three. The Golden Eagles hit their first triple of the evening at Fiserv Forum, then went 1-fer on the next 14 attempts, and so they were trailing at the break. But MU’s defense, defined by taking the ball away from the Bulldogs and grabbing rebounds on both ends of the court, was operating at a high level for the first 20 minutes, so it was still close at intermission. David Joplin scored last to close out the first half, and that jumpstarted a 10-0 run overall, and Butler would never lead again.
The rocky shooting continued, as MU went just 4-for-15 on triples in the second half. But they shot 58% on twos, forced Butler into a turnover on over 22% of their possessions in the game, and came up with a second chance 47% of the time, and all of that turned into an 80-70 victory to open up Big East action back on December 18th.
Since Last We Met: At the time, Marquette’s win over Butler marked a fourth straight loss for the Bulldogs. That was a bit of a bummer, as they had started the year 7-1 with wins over SMU, Northwestern, and Mississippi State. That four game losing streak turned into a nine game skid, and now, nine games into Big East play, Butler is 2-7 with only home wins over Seton Hall and DePaul on the plus side of the ledger. They beat the Pirates by five to snap that losing streak, damn near took down UConn on the road in the wake of that one but lost in overtime, and then they took down DePaul in 17 on Saturday for their most recent contest.
Tempo Free Fun: We can pick apart the numbers here and there and around the block if we want, but Marquette beat Butler the first time around this season because of a relatively simple concept.
Marquette attempted 75 shots in that game.
Butler attempted 47.
It’s a hard way to go about winning a game by just 10 points, but it’s a relatively simple idea at the core. If you have more attempts to score than your opponent, then you’re more likely to score more points than your opponent. Sometimes this gets expressed in terms of shot ratio in sports like hockey or soccer where it gets a little bit more esoteric and thoughtful when you’re trying to get your arms around the shape of the game. Thinking about basketball doesn’t quite work the same way because we can count rebounds and steals and so on. There’s more data points in a game of basketball.
But, still: If you attempt 61% of the shots in a basketball game and thus leave just 39% for your opponent, you have a notable advantage.
The catch, of course, is that Butler didn’t need to worry about shooting the ball a lot back in December because they finished that game with an effective field goal percentage of 60.6%. That’s the second worst effective field goal percentage that Marquette’s allowed this season, topped only by DePaul’s 60.9%, and in MU’s defense on that one, Isaiah Rivera knocked that number out of whack in the final minute of overtime. No one particularly ran wild for Butler in the first meeting, as Jahmyl Telfort and Kolby King tied for the scoring high with 16 points on eight and 10 shots respectively. Combined, Butler shot 15-for-25 on two-pointers and generally speaking, allowing someone to hit 60% of their twos against you is a bad time. That gets even worse when a team shoots over 40% from behind the three-point line against you, and that’s what Butler did. Again: No one got crazy hot, but a bunch of guys going 2-for-4 and 2-for-5 adds up pretty quick.
The question then becomes whether or not Marquette can do a better job defending Butler to make their life easier on the offensive end. A couple fewer made buckets, and that’s a couple fewer offensive rebounds or steals that Marquette needs to stay out in front of the Bulldogs. Yes, I know, Marquette wants to get those turnovers, especially the live ball steals that turn into easy buckets on the other end. But sometimes you have to win without them, and the fastest way to do that is to get some old fashioned missed shots and a rebound to end the possession.
It would also help if Marquette’s shooting decided to make the trip to Indianapolis. MU has hit at least 35% of their three-pointers in three of the last five games. They missed that number badly against Xavier, connecting on less than 28%, and they missed it again against Villanova at just 30%. The difference between the two — and thus the difference between winning and losing as the two games had different results — is simple. 46% two-point shooting against Xavier………. 63% against Villanova. One or the other is critical, both would be great.
It may just be as simple as Kam Jones and David Joplin hitting three-pointers. Jones is mired in a 7-for-27 funk (25.9%) in the last four games, while Joplin has gone just 3-for-22 (13.6%) since going over 50% against DePaul back on January 14th, and that includes an oh-fer on six attempts against Villanova on Friday night. Yes, point blank: That means Marquette went 8-for-19 on threes against the Wildcats outside of the guys that are expected to be the biggest outside shooting/scoring in general threats on the team. I’m not saying that either guy had a bad game against Villanova, as Joplin added five rebounds, two assists, a block, and two steals, while Jones put up five rebounds, five assists, and a block. They did stuff that wasn’t just their long range shots to contribute to the win…… but man, things get really easy for the Golden Eagles if those two have their shots in rhythm.
Stat Watch: Kam Jones needs five field goals to pass Bo Ellis for the third most made field goals in Marquette history.
Stat Watch #2: David Joplin needs two three-pointers to become the 11th Marquette player with 200 career made three-pointers.
Stat Watch #3: Kam Jones needs four points to pass George Thompson for the fourth most points in Marquette history. Thompson’s mark of 1,773 used to be the program’s all-time scoring record.
Marquette Last 10 Games: 8-2, with wins in each of the last two and eight of the last nine.
Butler Last 10 Games: 2-8, but with the two wins coming in their last three games.
All-Time Series: Marquette leads, 27-25.
Current Streak: Marquette has won two straight after beating the Bulldogs in Milwaukee earlier this season. They have also won five of the last six, eight of the last 10, and 10 of the last 13.
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