The Golden Eagles open up conference play this season by welcoming the Bulldogs to Fiserv Forum.
#9 Marquette Golden Eagles (9-2, 0-0 Big East) vs Butler Bulldogs (7-4, 0-0 Big East)
Date: Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Time: 8pm Central
Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Marquette Stats Leaders
Points: Kam Jones, 20.1 ppg
Rebounds: David Joplin, 5.4 rpg
Assists: Kam Jones, 6.4 apg
Butler Stats Leaders
Points: Jahmyl Telfort, 16.2 ppg
Rebounds: Andre Screen, 6.0 rpg
Assists: Jahmyl Telfort, 3.0 apg
KenPom.com Rankings
Marquette: #9
Butler: #74
Game Projection: Marquette has an 88% chance of victory, with a predicted score of 81-68.
This Season So Far: I am not going to go so far as to say that this has been a bad season for Butler, or to say that things have been going poorly.
I am, however, going to say that things have been going strangely.
They started out the season needing to gut out a game against Missouri State in the opener, with the game tied at 56 with seven minutes to go and then holding just a three point lead with two minutes left. They followed that up by giving up a 21-3 run bridging halftime to fall behind by 12 against Austin Peay. Butler managed to tie it with a shade over a minute to go, but ended up with a 68-66 loss…. to a team that has gone 2-6 since then, including getting blown out by East Tennessee State and Samford.
It seemed like Butler had righted the ship after that. They beat Western Michigan handily, knocked off SMU by 11 at home, and went into a multi-team event in the former home of the Arizona Coyotes with a record of 4-1. Butler squeezed past Northwestern in the first game of the Arizona Tip Off even without a field goal in the final 90 seconds and got lucky with the Wildcats missing two tries at the rim right before the horn. Then while the attention of America was focused on Georgia/Georgia Tech going to eight overtimes on Black Friday, BU snagged an 87-77 victory over then-#25 Mississippi State. It wasn’t without a bit of a fright as they nearly let a 10 point lead evaporate on them in the second half, but they bounced back, rebuilt that lead, and won, thanks to a pair of 20-plus point outings from Jahmyl Telfort and Pierre Brooks.
After moving to 7-1 on the season with a victory over Eastern Illinois, it was time for Butler’s entry in the Big East/Big 12 Battle. They drew a road game against then-#17 Houston, and uh, they flubbed it. BU didn’t get to double digits in points until there was less than six minutes left in the first half, and they were already down 15 when the Cougars popped off a 16-3 run late in the second half to seal up what ended as a 79-51 final score. Okay, but Houston’s great on both end of the floor, that’s fine…. as long as you don’t lose in a hilariously awful way to North Dakota State in your next game.
Hey, what’s that ominous music suddenly playing?
KenPom.com
In the words of a very meme-friendly college football announcer: OH NO! DISASTER! WHAT A BAD IDEA!
And then Butler compounded their problems by giving up a 10-0 to close the first half against Wisconsin this past Saturday, turning a four point game into a 14 point game, and they never recovered from there on the way to an 83-74 loss.
It’s not a bad season so far for Butler. They weren’t particularly expected to be great, so the fact that they’re kind of all over the place isn’t a particular problem for them. The Bulldogs are consistently inconsistent, which probably means that they’re going to win some games they shouldn’t in Big East play…. and also maybe lose some games that they shouldn’t.
Tempo Free Fun: We’re going to start with turnovers, because at a glance, it seems that this game is going to be decided in that department.
Let’s start with the Marquette of it all, because we can’t have a conversation about how turnovers will affect Wednesday night’s game without talking about how they affected Saturday’s game.
First half: Marquette provoked seven turnovers from Dayton, and they led by as many as 13 early before settling on a 36-26 margin at halftime.
Second half: Marquette didn’t cause Dayton to commit a single turnover in 20 minutes of basketball, and they lost the half, 45-27.
They didn’t get stops without a shot going up and they didn’t get easy runout offense going the other way with a steal and an outlet pass. Both ends of the court were affected by Marquette’s inability to do the thing that they base a lot of their defensive identity on — 23.3% of defensive possessions ending in a turnover, #10 in the country per KenPom.com — and so they lost the game overall by eight points. The Golden Eagles committing 13 turnovers overall themselves, eight in the second half alone, definitely did not help the situation, as MU has been one of the most reliable ball handling teams in the country this season, ranking #21 in the country in turnover rate on that end of the floor per KenPom.com.
Make sense? Everybody on board with the concepts here?
Okay, so that brings us to Butler.
The Bulldogs have a turnover problem, as they cough it up on over 18% of their possessions. That’s a sub-200 ranking type of number on KenPom.com, so that’s a spot where BU should be in a lot of trouble, especially at Fiserv Forum. I have to say “should” there because we just watched 20 minutes of Marquette basketball where they didn’t force any turnovers at all, so we have to hedge on this a little bit now. The biggest pressure points for Marquette will probably be starting guard Finley Bizjack and possible starting big man Andre Screen. Bizjack has started every game for the Bulldogs after missing the opener, and he’s posting a turnover rate of over 24%. NOTE: Anything over 20% is not good, which brings us to Screen. At 7’1”, he’s their only rotation player over 6’9”, and for whatever reason, head coach Thad Matta has only started Screen in three of their 11 games, opting instead for Augusto Cassia in the starting lineup. Screen did start against Wisconsin and their two-headed monster in the post because Cassia is out indefinitely with a knee injury, so I suspect Marquette will see a lot of Screen and his — and this is not a typo — turnover rate that’s north of 27%.
I mean this: Marquette needs to make Andre Screen unplayable in this game. If Butler sends the ball inside to him, double him and dig it out for a steal. If he ends up with the ball on the perimeter on an exchange, attack him and force the ball free. He’s their leading rebounder, pulling in six per game even though he averages less than 17 minutes a game. Because of that, he’s a top 60 rebounder in the country in terms of rate. Butler already leans towards not playing him since he has only cracked 21 minutes three times this season. Use his turnover problem against them and play him off the court.
Marquette should be able to go after Kolby King as well. The 6’2” transfer from Tulane is back in the Big East after starting his career at St. John’s in 2022-23. He didn’t play much against MU in the game in New York that season, but in Milwaukee and in the Big East tournament, the Golden Eagles prompted seven turnovers out of King in 32 total minutes. He’s averaging nearly 21 minutes a game, all off the bench, and he’s #2 on the team in rebounding at 5.1 per game. Get him to 10 career turnovers against MU’s defense, and he’ll disappear into the bench for the rest of the game, just like Screen.
That’s the pressure points that Marquette can bring to the Butler offense, but after those eight second half turnovers against Dayton, there’s a reasonable question to ask about how the Bulldogs might be able to attack MU’s ball control. The answer to that question is a stifled laugh. Butler lets opponents get a shot up on nearly 88% of their possessions. They rank #357 in the country in defensive turnover rate per KenPom.com. Eighth worst in the country. They are fourth worst in the country in steal rate, which indicates that Butler’s very bad defensive turnover rate is largely dependent on opponents throwing the ball out of bounds or committing offensive fouls. They are essentially allergic to taking the ball from you to generate a live ball turnover.
To at least discuss something that’s not the heavy advantage that Marquette should hold in the turnover department in this game, we have to point out that Butler’s going to try to shoot a lot of three pointers and they’re mostly speaking pretty good at hitting them. Iowa transfer Patrick McCaffery leads the team in both attempts (6.0 per game) and shooting percentage at 47% on the year. Honestly, if you want to just round up and say it’s a 50/50 chance of going in when he puts it up, I’m not going to argue with you about it. He’s not the only threat, though. Kolby King (46%), Jahmyl Telfort (43%), and Pierre Brooks (38%) are all firing off from behind the arc to the tune of at least twice per game. Butler’s not that far off from Marquette’s offense in terms of how many of their attempts are long range attempts, and believe it or not, Butler’s actually a lot better than MU at making sure they get an assist on those shots. 62% of Butler’s makes are off the pass, which is the #22 assist rate in the country. They don’t have a definitively dominant point guard or even lead guard the way that Kam Jones distributes for Marquette, but they make up for it with three guys between #225 and #425 in the country in assist rate per KenPom. The pressure defense can make the Bulldogs uncomfortable, and once they start getting uncomfortable and rushing shots to avoid the pressure, that’s when the misses start stacking up. If the long range misses start stacking up, then Butler’s offense might go bye-bye because they’re a sub-240 ranking team in terms of two-point shooting percentage this season.
Marquette Last 10 Games: 8-2, with losses in two of their last three games, but undefeated at home in seven tries this season.
Butler Last 10 Games: 6-4 and riding a three game losing streak. BU has played just one road game this season, and we can’t fault them for taking a 28 point loss to Houston.
All-Time Series: Marquette leads, 26-25.
Current Streak: The two teams split last season, with each one winning on the road and with MU taking the second game of the year. Marquette has won four of the last five, seven of the last nine, and nine of the last 12 meetings.