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A while back, Former Site Overlord Mitchell Maurer posed a question: How much value is there in giving someone what they want compared to giving someone what they need?
The “someone” here is Giannis Antetokounmpo. The “what they want” is Adrian Griffin, Damien Lillard, and anyone north of 30. The thinking here is that giving Giannis what he wants will keep him in Milwaukee, which will win championships. The “what they need” is Mike Budenholzer, Jrue Holiday, and anyone south of 30. The thinking here is that giving Giannis what he needs will win championships, which will keep him in Milwaukee.
The binary here is an oversimplification, but a helpful one. Certain moves could conceivably fit under both categories, but generally there’s a spectrum that ranges from what Giannis wants to what Giannis needs. That means that we can set up sort of a Prisoner’s Dilemma, with “what Giannis wants” vs. “what Giannis needs” on one axis, “wins championship(s)” and “doesn’t win championships” on the other axis, and various outcomes in the grid (I’ll admit that a Prisoner’s Dilemma is perhaps not an ideal way to consider how to keep a superstar that genuinely seems committed to staying, but again, it’s more helpful than not).
The challenge is that both the highest ceiling (the likelier eternal glory that comes with giving Giannis what he needs and thus winning one or more championships) and the lowest floor (the possibility that he leaves because he did not get what he wanted and he didn’t win any championships) flow from the same decision: giving Giannis what needs. That decision can be made, but the outcome (i.e., the number of championships won) is far from guaranteed.
In contrast, giving Giannis what he wants has a lower ceiling (eternal glory through championships is possible but less likely because Giannis, like most players, cannot successfully moonlight as a general manager) but also a higher floor (Giannis stays due to the lingering eternal glory from winning the single championship and getting what he wants). Although this decision also doesn’t guarantee a certain number of championships won, I think it does guarantee that Giannis stays in Milwaukee.
The Bucks have by and large adopted the first approach, which makes sense: they want to keep Giannis in Milwaukee. Having Giannis makes the Bucks instant title contenders, keeping them in the running for championships until he retires. In the current NBA, you need a superstar to win a championship; the Bucks’ chances for a title likely evaporate without Giannis (see: last season). There’s the overstated fear that a big city vulture will pry him away, but any team with a superstar—even in New York or Los Angeles—is rightfully concerned to keep their superstar. Moreover, there’s a track record of giving Giannis what he wants and him signing on for more years with the team. For what it’s worth, it’s also harder for Giannis to leave when he gets what he wants: the main person he can blame is himself.
Yet, it is tempting to shoot for the likelier eternal glory, winning a championship (or more) by giving Giannis what he needs. It’s the best possible outcome, after all! This decision seems especially justified as the possibility of Giannis actually leaving seems more and more remote—all the more so if he is on a team that, despite not winning championships, consistently gets past the first round.
Reflecting on this question, though, returns me to my usual doubt of championships as the currency of the NBA. As a fan, do I want to win championships… or simply keep Giannis? Say KD wore smaller shoes in 2021. Would I have rather been a fan of the Bucks the last decade, or the Celtics? Would I have rather watched Giannis grow into the player and person he is today, or watch Tatum yelp into the rafters? For me, the answer is simple. The priority should be to keep Giannis, winning be damned. (Although keeping Giannis is not a bad recipe for winning!)
But the catch is that, to keep Giannis, championships are indeed currency. He strives for greatness, which for better or worse is measured in championships. But he can’t win them alone. We need to give him what he needs.