Let’s convene to try and figure out Milwaukee’s path moving forward
Welcome back to another edition of the Brew Hoop Round Table, where we ask that everybody use coasters and please don’t feed the aging pugs from the table, thanks. While some of us (i.e., Van) are a little worse for the wear after an insane NBA trade deadline, losing sleep and pounding our fingers into keys hundreds of thousands of times, the All-Star break approaches, and the Milwaukee Bucks are a pretty different team. As we often do, let’s get the staff together to trade and make sense of what happened.
What was your immediate reaction to the Khris Middleton-Kyle Kuzma trade? Have your feelings changed since?
Van: Disappointment. Setting aside Kuzma and sentimentality for an all-time Buck, Middleton was productive and helping the team this season. Much like they did at times last year, they were rationing his minutes to ensure he could play in the postseason, and that worked out spectacularly. This is a guy who dropped 40 in a playoff game 9 months ago; it’s not as if we’re clinging to the pre-2022 Middleton here. I guess the Bucks just ran out of patience. Worse, I feel like this is the first time since 2017–18 that they aren’t earnestly pursuing a title in a given season. My disappointment only (very) slightly abated when I started to see what plan could now come together this summer, as we’ll discuss.
Morgan: Sadness and no. I wanted Khris to spend the rest of his career as a Buck, winning be damned—even though he could have been a big part of said winning! For the return to be… Kyle Kuzma? The slap in the face is still ringing.
Jack: I suppose the reporting leading up to the trade softened the blow somewhat. But the reality that the ol’ reliable Khris Middleton was no longer part of the franchise was a very tough pill to swallow. Since that point, I’ve been trying to convince myself that the fit is better than it appears to be with Kuzma (or that the real payoff is that this will allow the team to make bigger moves in the future). There are unique elements Kuzma brings to the game, but some very real drawbacks as well. I remain hopeful, but not as hopeful as I was.
Kyle: It was weird. I wasn’t surprised at Khris Middleton being traded; I had thought of this over the last year. But it was more the who came back that upset me as it felt like the Bucks didn’t get much back in return, and it felt like a salary dump. Watching Kuzma against the Sixers softened the blow as he played well and was within control. But I still do not view this trade favorably.
Riley: I’d been ready for this trade or at least Khris’ departure from the franchise for a while now, so I wasn’t fazed. In light of second apron restrictions and the excruciatingly tight window the team may feel it has around Giannis a shakeup felt nigh inevitable (unless this group won a title out of nowhere). As to the second question, my feelings have not changed since. The drive to win is a cold mistress. Khris is the latest victim of that. More are sure to follow.
Gabe: It was a bit of a shock—not so much a shock from it actually happening, but just the realization of it occurring. For so many years, there’s been chatter surrounding the eventual end of the Giannis/Middleton duo. However, it almost seemed as if it’d never actually happen. You could tell that this year brought a higher likelihood of it coming to fruition, so when it finally did unfold, it didn’t seem as jarring as it might’ve in past years.
Did the Bucks’ title chances increase, decrease, or remain the same by swapping Middleton, AJ Johnson, Delon Wright, and MarJon Beauchamp for Kuzma, Jericho Sims, and Kevin Porter Jr.?
Van: Decrease easily. Prior to the move, I thought their ceiling was an NBA championship; I still believe that a healthy playoff run with Giannis, Damian Lillard, and Middleton (which we never got, thanks to Giannis’ playoff injuries) would have taken them pretty deep, perhaps all the way. Now, though, the team has less talent and less cohesion on it in swapping Middleton for Kuz; while they may have raised their floor, I’m bearish on a deep run.
Morgan: They certainly decrease this season, and that’s the point: chalk this year up as a failure and take a swing at someone this summer with the added financial flexibility of swapping Khris for Kuz. There’s no way they were going to get past two of the three top seeds in the conference, and even getting past the first round is an open question. The hope is that they will increase in the next two years, but I’ll hold my horses on that until the offseason.
Jack: As much as I hate to admit it, I think they decreased this season. Middleton, If healthy (and that is a massive “if” with him), played a connector role on this team that was so important. I will admit, though, that I was very worried about Khris’ health going forward, and there is at least a chance that the combination of Kyle Kuzma’s (I don’t think the other guys will matter) availability and age increases their odds at a title. But if the team is relying on Kuzma to deliver in key moments and play the role he needs to play perfectly, they’ve probably already lost.
Kyle: Decrease this season but remain the same long term; I had viewed the Bucks’ odds of postseason success as pretty low, but really, the team only goes as far as Giannis and Dame take them. If one or both of them are injured or not up to standards, that will be Milwaukee’s downfall.
Riley: The only names mentioned in the question who are likely to have (or have had) a tangible impact on Milwaukee’s title odds are Middleton and Kuzma. Khris had the “what if” factor around his hitting his physical stride at the right moment for the team; if he did, that was the best possible formula available to the team to win this year. For this exercise, let’s assume things went according to plan. In that case, the team’s title odds have tangibly decreased.
Gabe: My confidence in this team continues to decrease. For so long, it seems like they’ve been constantly playing catch up in getting up to speed. Whether it be coaching changes, new personnel, you name it—they always seem to never be where they want to be. As we reach the All-Star break, it’s clear that familiarity and chemistry need to grow with the new roster. I mean, just the other night, Doc was talking about how multiple players forgot a play. Given that the playoffs will be here before we know it, I’m very skeptical that this team will be able to piece everything together in a timely manner that’s competitive with the best of the best in the East.
Where do you see the Bucks finishing in the East now?
Van: Fourth. Prior to the last couple weeks, I thought they were both good enough and cohesive enough to get to 50 wins and perhaps even sneak into the third or even second seed, given some struggles by Boston and New York. But now I can’t see them finishing higher than four; they’re firmly a mid-seed in the East alongside Indiana and probably Orlando, but they are one win away from having the tiebreaker over both those teams. I still think they are a tier higher than Detroit, Miami, and Atlanta, so I doubt they’ll finish lower than fifth as long as they remain decently healthy.
Morgan: …sixth? Heaven forbid they become a play-in team, but Indiana is figuring things out, and I see Orlando making up ground once all of their starters aren’t injured. I see the other teams similarly as Van, I just think that I’m a little more pessimistic about Milwaukee.
Jack: I think they’ll end up fourth. Once Giannis comes back and they can string a bunch of games together with him, Lillard, Kuzma, and the other key guys, I reckon this team will go on a run and overtake the Indiana Pacers. For what it’s worth, I don’t care about getting in the 2/3 bracket at all; would rather finish in the 4/5 bracket and avoid the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics in the second round.
Kyle: Fifth. I believe there will be more priority on having the key rotation players healthy/rested compared to climbing up the standings. Milwaukee will likely face Indiana as a 4/5, and with Miami and Atlanta losing quality, the Bucks will be comfortable in their current standing.
Riley: The Bucks have the fifth-toughest remaining schedule (tied with Utah) per Tankathon’s tracker on the morning of February 12th. Orlando, Indiana, and Atlanta, just to pick three teams competing with Milwaukee, have the fifth-, sixth-, and seventh-easiest schedules. Math is not destiny and the beauty of sport is that the human spirit, teamwork, and cohesion can overcome abstract numbers. Given all that, they’ll secure the fifth seed.
Gabe: I’ll go with fifth. Clearly, there’s still some work that needs to be done. I’m assuming that it’ll take a bit for Kuzma to fully gel with the rest of the team. However, if they come back from the All-Star break firing on all cylinders and don’t have to battle any health issues, I wouldn’t be surprised if they overtook Indiana.
How deep can Milwaukee go with this roster?
Van: Yes, a lot would have had to go right, and health was critical, but now I think their ceiling is the East Finals, no higher. A lot of things would have to go right to get there too. I won’t be surprised at all if they win a series, maybe even two, but I also won’t be shocked if it’s another first-round exit.
Morgan: A healthy Giannis-Dame duo cannot be counted out in the playoffs. The lack of other quality Bucks, plus the quality of the opposition, shrinks the margin of error, but I’ll zag from my previous answers here and say that I still think the Bucks can go all the way. I just think that it is very unlikely.
Jack: I think a second-round exit is more likely than not, but I would not be shocked at a conference finals appearance if some things fall their way. And from there, everything’s on the table. I maintain that a healthy Giannis and Dame can win it all. But that won’t be enough; Kuzma probably has to play a complementary role to those two, not a starring role with them; Trent and Green will have to hit shots; AJax must not kill the offence, etc. Many things need to fall into place, probably too many things, but it’s not insane to say they could still go all the way; you’d bet against it, though.
Kyle: It’s hard to see them getting past the second round. There are factors like injuries and wild shooting variance that could go in the Bucks’ favor. But it is hard seeing them beating the Cavs/Knicks/Celtics in a seven-game series.
Riley: Giving another team hell in the second round has been my target for this group since early in the season. That hasn’t drifted and in fact, has probably only solidified with the downgrade in skill on the roster. Being more athletic than the other team helps some (so Kuzma isn’t a complete wash), but playing at the uppermost margins makes the difference in a playoff series. Barring a path through via injuries sustained by other leading East teams advancing past the first round is the achievable goal.
Gabe: It’s going to be very difficult for them to get past the second round. In fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if they got tripped up again in the first round—especially if injuries haunt them again. The only way I could see them making the ECF is if they’re shooting red-hot for an entire series. That’d be a Cinderella run, though. I struggle to see them making a bid at the NBA Finals.
Why do you think these trades were made?
Van: It’s pretty clear they were made to get beneath the second apron. Not just as a way of cutting costs, though, but to set them up for a bigger move this summer. By finishing the year under the second apron, the Bucks’ 2031 first-round pick will not become frozen, which is another way of saying “unable to be traded.” This summer, GM Jon Horst will be armed with tradeable firsts in 2031 and 2032 (if one of those is traded, though, the other would have to be a swap) and three seconds with the extra two he picked up in the Middleton deal. That’s a great collection of draft assets to offer up.
Morgan: Oh most definitely. Besides that, if I put on my rose-tinted glasses, I can see a vision where Kuzma is just a younger (and therefore more likely to stay healthy) version of Khris. The shooting is (kinda) there, the facilitation… not really, but the tradeoff might be a little more oomph on the other end of the floor. So if he’s able to be integrated into the team—a big if—maybe this year’s title chances don’t decrease quite as drastically as we think they might?
Jack: The primary reason I think the trades were made was to get under the second apron and open opportunities for them to move chess pieces around in the future. I think that is probably 70% of the reason why. But secondarily, I think Middleton’s issues staying healthy (or playing extended minutes when he was healthy) might have been wearing thin on the organisation. And those issues wouldn’t have been so pronounced if the team wasn’t top-heavy. With no Khris, it felt like Giannis and Dame had to play so much to even give them a chance to win. Overall, I just think Horst, understanding that Khris’ value probably wasn’t through the roof, just wanted someone who can play a primary role with no minutes restriction to get the main guys some extra rest (especially with Giannis getting injured last year trying to drag this team across the line).
Kyle: To get below the second apron, which I am not a fan of. I understand the implications of being in that apron, it feels as though Horst is trying to buy himself time to make a more significant move in the summer. He mentioned it’s to maximize the window, but the initial feeling is that he’s decreasing it.
Riley: As everyone else said above, it’s about the money—or the way the money is doled out. I’d make a comment about availability as well, but there also hasn’t been much of a hint that Doc Rivers & Co. would have had actionable plans to meaningfully dial back Giannis’ and Dame’s minutes even if Khris was capable of going ~30 a night. But again, money. If Khris didn’t meet the team’s expectations this post-season and he opts into his player option, you’re stuck having to find a salary dump partner at that point to then make whatever retooling moves you’re aiming for. The team might’ve made the move now so they have more time to draft a coherent and convincing plan for this summer.
Gabe: Just like others have said, it’s clear that getting under the second apron was a priority. I also agree that this will provide Horst with more versatility in maneuvering the roster this summer.
Should Kuzma start?
Van: We won’t see him on the floor with Giannis for the first time until after the break, but based on what I know about Kuz and what I’ve seen in his first handful of games as a Buck, I’m skeptical the two will mesh. Kuzma is a four, but for a lineup with Giannis at the five to really pop, Giannis needs three or four reliable three-point shooters on the floor with him. That’s not Kuzma, and it was Middleton. Middleton was also an important secondary ballhandler with those lineups—that’s also not Kuzma. Though he can score inside the arc more effectively, I’d honestly not play him and Giannis together much at all with all the overlap, so bench it is.
Morgan: I do not want Kuzma on the floor with a green light (read: without Giannis or Dame). I’m guessing that starting him will reduce the chances of that happening, so I think he should start. I also think he should be the third-best player on the team and should close games, so it’s not like he doesn’t have the quality—I just can’t watch him iso their bench lineups to death.
Jack: I very much echo Morgan’s point here. Starting Kuzma reduces him to the third banana, where he belongs, even if he is playing out of position in that lineup. Having him come off the bench trying to be a primary creator sounds like a bad plan to me. And look, maybe for this year, they just lean into being weird and finding success in using a ginormous lineup with theoretical versatility on both ends. The small-ball lineups prior to the trade were awful anyway.
Kyle: Only when Giannis isn’t starting/available.
Riley: A starting lineup shakeup would probably be a good idea out of the All-Star break so that the team has 29 games to sort itself out. It is time for Andre Jackson Jr. to be demoted while probably moving Gary Trent Jr. back into the starting group. No matter how I try to slice possible combinations, though, there isn’t a logical group that includes Kuzma on the floor to start the game. He shouldn’t start.
Gabe: Morgan raises a solid point about Kuzma being the third option alongside Giannis and Dame. In that scenario, I’d be a fan of trying him out in the starting five. It’s clear that the Bucks don’t have a formula yet that’d warrant playoff success, so I’m all for seeing how a healthy starting five featuring Kuz would pan out.
Does Kuzma last beyond 2025 with the Bucks?
Van: I don’t believe so. Comments from the team don’t indicate he’s someone they’re fully committed to as part of the new core they need to assemble. Kuzma’s salary declines in each of the next two years; that team-friendly contract should be a desirable asset for matching salaries in a trade. Whether it’s more desirable than Middleton would have been at $34m on an expiring deal (assuming he picks up his player option), I’m not sure. Since the Bucks project to be well under the first apron this summer, they can take back 125% (plus $250k) of the money they’re sending out. Combine another player or two with Kuz (Pat Connaughton on an expiring this summer is the obvious one), and the Bucks could take back a player making north of $40m.
Morgan: With love, I hope not, but maybe the market won’t break the Bucks’ way. Still, at the end of the day, he’s a decent hooper with a decent contract, and those guys don’t grow on trees.
Jack: I do hope they can parlay his contract (and stuff) into a better-fitting piece. But like Morgan said, the market might not break their way, and there just aren’t many guys in the league with contracts like his. I guess I wouldn’t be mad if he was in Milwaukee next season.
Kyle: Given Horst was struggling to trade Pat and Bobby despite it being well-known he wanted to trade them, I’ll say sure.
Riley: Yes, he will. Horst will throw him in a bunch of theoretical deal iterations because that declining contract holds a certain amount of value both here and for other teams up against apron restrictions. I have a sense, though, that the rebuild this summer will go heavy on “athleticism” while leaving the skill parts of basketball largely to Giannis and Dame. Kuzma fits that bill with all the downside risks that entails. Unless some silver bullet offer comes across the wire, they’ll try to make that work through the first portion of next season.
Gabe: I’m going to say no. Horst has made big splashes before. I think this breaks the chains off the roster restrictions that he was previously constrained to and allows him to get creative again.
What do you expect from Sims and Porter?
Van: I don’t expect either to play much. Sims was brought in to be the fourth big, and a fourth big has never really been in the Bucks’ rotation unless one of their three rotation bigs (Giannis, Lopez, Portis) aren’t playing. KPJ will play more, and though the second unit really needs playmaking now that Middleton is gone, he’s probably behind Rollins in terms of the pecking order at point guard, though the two can play side-by-side. Outside of back-to-backs, I don’t think we’ll see too much of either—and that’s ok, neither are very good—unless there are injuries.
Morgan: The bench has been a let-down this year, and I don’t mean on the court. Thanasis left a gaping hole in off-court energy, and Sims and Porter have big shoes to fill in that department. My hope is excitement commensurate to or slightly exceeding on-court happenings and that they’ll do their duty in their Jeff Teague and/or garbage minutes.
Jack: I don’t expect much from either. I like the Sims pickup, but I just don’t see him getting much of an opportunity for this season, at least. But if Bobby isn’t back next season and they re-sign Sims, he obviously might get a real shot. Regardless, though, I like the fact that he is a playable big in the case of an injury for this year. And who knows? Maybe they’ll need Sims’ skillset for a playoff series or a regular season matchup where Bobby or Brook just aren’t giving them anything. KPJ is nice in theory as a playmaking guard who can get into the paint, but he just doesn’t appear to do anything all that well (maybe on-ball defence). Thus, I am quite uneasy about giving him any sort of run until he gets good at something. Will that ever happen for KPJ? I’m not getting my hopes up.
Kyle: I have been banging the drum for years that Milwaukee needs a Lopez succession plan and Bobby’s absence highlighted that further. I want to have hope for Sims to be at least a backup big next year should Lopez return or a stop-gap for a longer-term option. There’s not much to look forward to with this roster, so I’ll have blind optimism. I do not care for KPJ.
Riley: KPJ will not get much playing time the rest of the season and I’d expect him to opt into his player option to try and establish himself in the rotation over the summer. What he does after an offseason with the group is anyone’s guess. Sims is likely just a body who will leave this July after a few months serving as walking, talking big rotation insurance.
Gabe: My expectations are pretty low. Doc has mentioned that he’ll give them their fair share of opportunities to see what they can provide, but he also mentioned how difficult it can be to stagger all these new guys accordingly. I don’t think either Sims or KPJ will be an x-factor in a playoff series or anything like that, but rather break-in-case-of-emergency options should injuries or foul trouble occur.
With a revamped roster, who do you want in the closing lineup in a tight playoff game?
Van: This is kind of sad to think about since there are now only two or three guys I trust. It’ll depend on the opponent to some degree, but you have stonecold locks in Dame and Giannis. After those two? I’ll take the decent on-ball defense of Green and Trent, then Prince, who can check some bigger guys. Lopez would take the place of one of those three if the opponent (Cleveland, say) has a rim threat. At least they’ll have four shooters at all times!
Morgan: Giannis, Dame… can it just be two-on-two? Anyway, Gary has been providing the best combination of perimeter defense as of late and Kyle Kuzma should be the third-best player on this team, so I’ll slot them in as well. Then, depending on the matchup, I’ll say either Brook or Taurean as the final piece of the puzzle. I really want to trust the AJs and think/hope they’ll get there eventually, but I don’t think it’s feasible this year.
Jack: Obviously, Giannis and Dame are the first two in. Throw Kuzma in there as the third creator. I’ll go with Trent as the closest facsimile of an AJax and AJG combination, although I do think he’s ultimately unqualified for that role. And I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’ll opt for Bobby as the centre. Brook seems to be showing a few somewhat worrying signs of late that age might be getting to him.
Kyle: Giannis, Dame, GTJ, Prince, Brook. That is the lineup I trust the most, but I would be okay with AJ Green being included if Prince isn’t an option.
Riley: Dame, GTJ, Prince… er, Kuzma, then Giannis? Every option contains sharp tradeoffs, no matter how you try to slice it. Here’s hoping the final 29 games prove me wrong with a renewed spark from the rotation.
Gabe: I agree 100% with Kyle. Giannis, Dame, GTJ, Prince, and Brook is a veteran-stacked lineup that boasts capabilities from both an offensive and defensive perspective. Maybe by the end of the year, I’ll change my mind and elect to have Kuzma in there. Currently, I haven’t seen enough that warrants him being in that discussion.
That’s what we think, but how about you? We welcome you to chime in with your answers to any or all of these questions below.