The gang makes their picks
Welcome back to yet another year of the Brew Hoop Round Table, where we ask that everybody use coasters and please don’t feed the aging pugs from the table, thanks. It’s playoff time again, and unlike last year, the Milwaukee Bucks enter the postseason on the high of an eight-game win streak. Like last year, though, they unfortunately enter the postseason without one of their two best players, as Damian Lillard will miss the start of the playoffs. After a year with downs that seemed to overshadow the ups, how will this playoff run go? Let’s see what the staff thinks.
What’s your Round One prediction against the Indiana Pacers?
Van: Hey, same question as last year! I think Giannis takes this matchup very seriously, maybe even a little too seriously, given last year’s ballgate drama and fouling Tyrese Haliburton on a game-tying three-point attempt last month. That’s bad news for the Pacers, who got an all-time break when he missed last year’s series, and now they should be very afraid. Maybe he wasn’t putting up 64 and 54-point games this season like he did in late 2023, but the league at large seems to have forgotten how utterly dominant Playoff Giannis is after not seeing it since 2022 due to injuries. Indiana simply has no answer for that player. Plus, Milwaukee has a much better group of role players this year surrounding Giannis, Dame, Lopez, and Portis, thanks to the emergence of Kevin Porter Jr., Gary Trent, AJ Green, and Taurean Prince. Dame or no Dame, Bucks in six.
Jack: Gosh, there are a lot of different angles at play here; I think either team will win in six or seven games, and it’ll be a very close series. The Pacers really have nobody to guard Giannis, but I do think he could get fatigued and lose focus throughout the series due to the number of possessions he’ll have to dominate the ball. I am worried about the Pacers’ pace (no pun intended) and their ability to play with physicality against the Bucks. Ultimately, I think Giannis could run out of steam, and Indy would take control of the series. But after seeing Dame news, I’m going Bucks in six now.
Kyle: A healthy enough Giannis is enough to give me just enough optimism to say Bucks in seven.
Morgan: You know what? F*** Indiana—Bucks in four. I see Giannis beating the everliving snot out of whoever the Pacers decide to throw in between him and the hoop. I see Gary Trent Jr. following in Bryn Forbes’ fabled footsteps and outscoring Tyrese Haliburton. I see the Bucks wasting their best basketball on their worst opponent, only to be annihilated by Cleveland in four.
Riley: Having sat on it for a bit, I’ll go with Bucks in six games with Giannis leading the way. Fully prepared for things to go awry should the Pacers’ all-out effort approach throw enough wrenches in the works to knock the non-Giannis Bucks off their game. If the team can find a secondary scorer each night from The Other Guys, I’ll give them an edge. Either way, I’m glad to go into a playoff series feeling just as in it as the other team.
Finn: Bucks in six, baby. Especially with Damian Lillard’s return officially on the horizon, I think this team is ready to get their revenge for last year. Hope and optimism are high for me right now, given how the team was rolling to end the season. The Pacers are a formidable opponent, but I don’t think they’re ready to deal with a locked-in Giannis in a full playoff series.
Jackson: What a dramatic shift in the vibes around this series for the Bucks in the last 24–48 hours. Giannis is finally healthy heading into the postseason, Jerhico Sims seems ready to roll for whatever is needed from him, and most importantly, Damian Lillard’s return is coming sooner than expected. While from the get-go, my pick was going to be the Bucks, now with the best player in the series and a much-improved bench unit from the last time these two teams played each other in the playoffs. My initial choice for the number of games was seven, with the depth of the Pacers roster giving the Bucks fits at times, but with Dame potentially back as early as Game 2 or 3, I’m gonna chop down two more and say Bucks in five. If the series is tied coming to Milwaukee for Game 3 and Dame returns, I’d hammer this prediction even harder.
Who is the x-factor this series for Milwaukee?
Van: I’ve been pretty critical of Bobby Portis’ postseason performances since the Bucks won it all in 2021, and with good reason, I think. But I think that despite his issues against Indy last season, getting ejected from Game 4 and really only putting together one solid outing, he’s primed to be a positive contributor this time around. In the three games upon his return last week, two of them against playoff teams, he was quite efficient and, most importantly, played within himself. With Giannis around this year, it takes the pressure off Portis to move the scoreboard, which he often tries to do with ill-advised jumpers at the expense of teammates. Milwaukee getting the Portis we saw against Detroit and Minnesota is exactly what they’ll need to take this series.
Jack: Easy one for me: Kevin Porter Jr. I think he could either win them the series or lose them the series; he’ll play a massive role in the final result, regardless. We’ve spoken about it before, but the Bucks have a lot of “specialists” on the team in Prince, Green, Trent, etc. I think KPJ’s ability to play as a primary creator and bring some verve and athleticism to the team could come in clutch. I also think Rollins could be played off the court, and they may have to push the “play Porter 38 minutes button” by, like, Game 3. At the same time, this will be KPJ’s first playoffs, and it could all go the other way if he isn’t composed, both in his demeanour and in his play.
Kyle: The Bucks signed Gary Trent Jr. to take the tough defensive assignments and for his shooting. That will be more important as Indiana will either throw everything at Giannis or accept that Giannis will get his, and they will shut down or make things difficult for those around him. GTJ has played very well since his first month struggles and move to the bench, and he is the type of player who will hit timely threes when Milwaukee needs it.
Morgan: It’s Giannis, but I’ll go with the third member of Milwaukee’s “2 Hot 2 Handle” triumvirate: AJ Green. It’s no coincidence that his absence coincided with the Bucks’ most recent losing streak, and it’s no coincidence that he is part of some of the best two-, three-, four-, and five-man lineups that Milwaukee trots out. He can shoot and he can defend on-ball; will he do the other little things on either end of the floor that justify keeping him on the court?
Riley: Time for a patented Riley cop out whereby I confidently state that the most important non-Giannis Buck is whoever is guarding Tyrese Haliburton. Indiana’s approach starts with him, and that will be the first punch thrown out of the gate every single game. Rick Carlisle is pretty adept at moving away from Tyrese for brief stretches if something isn’t working before eventually going back his way to keep defenses off-balance. Bah Gawd, Is that Taurean Prince’s music???
Finn: Give me the big fella, Brook Lopez. After last year, we know how much Indiana likes to push the pace and spam Myles Turner pick-and-pops, two things that amplify Lopez’s weak points. Turner killed the Bucks last year from behind the arc because Brook, in classic fashion, would just sink back to the rim and let him shoot out of the P&R. We’ve seen time and time again, in the playoffs and the regular season, how Lopez can swing a game on his own on both ends. In this series, not only could he keep Indy out of the paint in the half court, but he could also be relied upon to pick up offensive slack when guys like Kyle Kuzma and Kevin Porter Jr. are struggling. Lopez gave the Pacers 17.7 points a night in last year’s playoffs, and he could do it again if his slow feet don’t become detrimental.
Jackson: For me, it’s the Bucks’ bench backcourt duo of Gary Trent Jr. and Kevin Porter Jr. These two have been massive improvements over Patrick Beverley and an aging Pat Connaughton for the first two guards off the bench. If Milwaukee wants any chance of making this a quick series, this duo will have to continue to put up the numbers they have since the trade deadline. The “Jrs.” since Porter’s debut on Feb. 10, are averaging a combined 24.4 PPG and shooting a tick below 40% from beyond the arc at 39.9%.
When do you think we will see Damian Lillard on the court this series?
Van: I’m going with Game 3 when the series heads to Milwaukee. That’s barely over a month since his initial diagnosis, and however early the blood clot was caught, this is totally unprecedented.
Jack: Well, it’s looking like Game 2? LOL.
Kyle: Originally, I thought late in the second round at best, but realistically, I didn’t think he would come back. Now I guess Game 3.
Morgan: For his long-term health, I hope we don’t see him on the court this postseason. And his short-term health remains crucial to the Bucks, who employ his services for another two years. But… apparently soon, LOL.
Riley: I’m not a doctor, I just cosplay as one on a (moderately successful) podcast when the need arises. That being said, I’d be surprised if he was back barring a Finals run. If he gets cleared and is all good, though, it’d make for a great story. See above.
Finn:
Jackson: The best mix for him to return safely after this blood clot soon would be Game 3. He has the luxury of having two capable backups in Porter and Ryan Rollins, so they don’t need to rush him back to score points from the guard position like they did last year. Plus, it gives him five full days from Game 1 to recover and ramp himself up to play again.
Jericho Sims will reportedly be available for Game 1. Do you see a role for him in this series?
Van: Hard to see him getting serious run after a month off. Though he’s probably ok from a conditioning standpoint, given that it was thumb surgery, Milwaukee seems set to run a lot of zone with Portis playing the five. As switchy as Sims is, and how successful I think he’d be switching onto guys in smaller Pacers lineups (plus screening on the other end), zone is the way. Indiana has struggled a fair bit with zone this season, including against Milwaukee in a couple games.
Jack: I do not. The Pacers will double every ball screen he’s involved in and force him to make decisions in the pocket. They tried this in the third game these two teams played in Indy when Milwaukee lost on that four-point play. Also, just with the injury and the amount of time he’s missed, I doubt he’s in the greatest basketball shape possible.
Kyle: There is a 1% chance that he plays, and that would only be if Brook is unavailable and Bobby is THAT bad against the Pacers.
Morgan: Once again, I see that the responsibility to zag falls to me—it is I, you see, who wrote “Jericho Sims!” (exclamation point!) as the Buck whose jersey I’d buy in the voting for our Golden Hoof Awards. Sims brought a refreshing, no-nonsense, get-er-done quality to the big position that Milwaukee has lacked as of late. Giannis, Brook, and Bobby are great in their own ways, but aren’t conventional big men like Jericho. To be sure, I concede pretty much all of the points made above. But reality is but an obstacle to belief, which I have in spades.
Riley: Hell, I’ll follow in Morgan’s footsteps and say there is a spot for Sims. There won’t be when the series starts, but if there is any trouble at all handling the somewhat smaller Pacers lineups on defense, I could see Doc pulling the lever to shake it up. If the series is as knock-down-drag-out as I suspect, flipping the Jericho card could factor in as both coaches look for a way to break the stalemate.
Finn: Yes, there is a role for Sims. His ability to operate effectively in multiple coverages is nothing to scoff at. Going against a big like Myles Turner, who loves to pop, means someone has to be ready to turn his water off if he starts cooking, and bringing Sims up to the level in the pick-and-roll could be the solution. Sims could also fit in better than Lopez or Portis if the pace of a game turns breakneck. That said, will Doc put him in? Absolutely not. So, the question becomes “how frustrating will it become that Sims isn’t getting any burn?” Hopefully, the Bucks will win without him and remove the need for quibbling.
Jackson: We all saw the fits the Pacers gave the Bucks when they went small with Obi Toppin against Bobby Portis last season. Having a guy like Sims in spurts who can take the switch onto some guards and wings will be vitally important. We saw how dynamic he could be on the defensive end during his short time in the regular season, but he never had to play alongside Bobby in that time. I think that combo can work in bursts, and against an athletic team like Indiana, the more athletes the better. Van, Riley, and Kyle mentioned it on the pod this week: to survive and contend in this NBA, you need athletes out on the floor, and Sims is one of those athletes.
While Dame is not playing, pick your eight-man rotation, at least the one you’d use to begin the series.
Van: As weird as the starting lineup looks first blush, they’ve actually been quite good at +12.4 with a 130.1 offensive rating. So I’m keeping their minutes more or less as is, at least compared to the last week of the regular season. That means I have to cut down on minutes for one of Portis, Trent, and Green. Reluctantly, I’ll go with Green because he’s still unproven as a playoff shooter, I think Trent has been quite good defending Haliburton this year, and I’m reasonably confident in a Portis bounceback this year. However, if I need someone to shoot me back into the game, or the offense is stalling out too much, I’m swapping Green for Rollins.
Jack: The one I would use is Giannis, Rollins, Prince, Lopez, KPJ, Trent, Portis, and Green, with Kuzma the odd one out there. Do I think that has any chance of happening? Not really. Realistically, I think Rollins is most likely to be excised due to not being able to make a big enough impact on either side of the ball. Prince could also have his minutes cut dramatically if he’s trying to do too much.
Kyle: Giannis, Brook, Prince, KPJ, AJG, Bobby, GTJ, Rollins. That is what I believe to be the best eight players for this series, but Rollins or AJG will likely be the odd man out for Kuzma
Morgan: Give me a starting lineup of KPJ, GTJ, AJG, Giannis, and Brook. It’s the best lineup to close games, so why isn’t it the best lineup to start them? Then give me RR as George Hill, TP because of shooting, and Jericho because I CANNOT be on the only one who’s still out on Bobby. I smart at rhyme, scoff at reason, and burn this house to the !@#$ing ground.
Riley: Giannis, Brook, Prince, Porter, Trent, Kuzma (I know, I know, but he’s here and he’s going to get minutes, at least to start), Portis, and Green. I steadfastly reserve the right to immediately drop Kuz and Bobby into the deep bench abyss at a moment’s notice.
Finn: I don’t see Doc differing from his starting lineup of Prince, Kuzma, Giannis, and Brook, unless Kuzma becomes a big problem, which is possible. KPJ and GTJ have to be rotation locks at this point. Someone outside of Giannis (and eventually Dame) will need to create some offense, and that’s KPJ’s specialty. Gary Trent Jr. has simply been too good this season to bench. He hits big shots, and he holds up way better defensively than Bryn Forbes or Malik Beasley ever did. For my seventh man, give me Ryan Rollins to chase Tyrese Haliburton around, cause someone has to do it, and it can’t be Prince for the whole series. Then, I’m going to cheat and write Bobby in as the eighth man with AJ Green and Jericho Sims as situational ninth men. I don’t think Milwaukee’s bench is clear-cut enough to narrow down to a nightly eight-man rotation. Different guys could play bigger roles on any given night, depending on what the team needs. Green can come in if everyone else is cold from deep. Sims can replace Bobby for defensive purposes if needed.
Jackson: I’ll start with my new look starting lineup and then go to the bench. In the new starting lineup, you have Ryan Rollins, AJ Green, Taurean Prince, Giannis, and Brook. Off the bench: KPJ, GTJ, and Bobby. While some would clamor for KPJ or GTJ in the starting lineup, I think Rollins has done a good enough job to keep that spot and provide good defense with some spot-up shooting and I also don’t want to mess with a good thing with having GTJ stop coming off the bench considering how good he has been in that role. The big change comes with cutting Kyle Kuzma out of the rotation entirely. Listen, I know what value he can bring as a defender and cutter, but his offensive game is so erratic that I have a hard time giving him one of those eight spots over some of these other guys. You need some center minutes behind Brook with Bobby, and the Jrs. have more than earned their spots in the rotation.
How far do you think the Bucks will go this postseason?
Van: I believe in them making it to the second round for the first time in three years, and while I can squint and see them taking down Cleveland (plus who knows, maybe a Bucks opponent will have a key injury for the first time in four years), I wouldn’t place money on it. Even with Lillard’s return, I see them falling to the Cavs in six games or fewer, setting up an offseason where they’ll have some interesting trade pieces to retool around Giannis and Dame.
Jack: Without Dame, I felt like a first-round exit had to be the most likely outcome. But man, would it feel good to knock off the Pacers? I would absolutely froth that outcome against this particular team. With Dame back, give me a second-round exit now.
Kyle: Gentleman swept in the second round. Sadly, that seems to be the best-case scenario for this team.
Morgan: Second round. Sadly, Kenny Atkinson and co. will send the Bucks from the Erie through the Huron to the Michigan.
Riley: A second-round appearance, whereby their success or failure then falls completely on whether Damian Lillard is a medical marvel (edited to add: he is). Giannis can bludgeon the Pacers into paste—that task becomes nigh impossible against a team like the Cavs with Jarrett Allen leading the way defensively.
Finn: Because this team is becoming fully healthy, I think the absolute ceiling is still a championship until they prove otherwise. However, the most realistic and likely median outcome is a second-round exit at the hands of the Cavaliers, who are a lot better than they’re getting credit for.
Jackson: Even if everything goes right for them, the ceiling on this team is Eastern Conference Finals. They went 0-10 against the Celtics, Cavs, and Knicks this year, and unless there are some crazy upsets, they’re gonna have to go through two of them to make it to the NBA Finals. While some of those games were close with the Celtics and Cavs, the Knicks blew the doors off the Bucks in each game, and I can’t see them getting past one of those teams in a potential ECF series. I give them a fighting chance against the Cavaliers because of the lack of playoff experience on the Cavs outside of Donovan Mitchell. Yet at the end of the day, it’s hard to get everything to go your way, so I have them losing in seven to the Cavs in round two.
What are your answers to the above questions? Is there anything else you’re wondering about this series? Please let us know in the comments below!