After dropping four spots since last season’s RTR, can PC turn it around?
This season looms large for Pat Connaughton, who appears to be at a true inflection point in his career. After solid back-to-back seasons in 2021 and 2022, Connaughton’s last two campaigns have been underwhelming. Here’s a quick look at PC’s numbers over the past four years:
After his playoff performance in the championship year, Connaughton enjoyed his best season as a pro the year after. Without Khris Middleton in the ‘22 playoffs against the Celtics, Pat was one of Milwaukee’s top performers, which got him the contract he’s on now. But since that point, Connaughton’s form has trended downward, outside of a really good series against Miami in 2023. After finishing closer to 40 percent from three in ‘21 and ‘22, he has hovered around the low thirties over the past two years. His field goal percentage has mainly stayed the same at around 45 percent, but his ability to get shots up has continued to diminish.
The question we should ask ourselves is: what gets Pat on the court? If you asked me two years ago, I would have said his defence, rebounding, three-point shooting, and his ability to be a connector, which he’s still OK at, to be fair. But Connaughton has not been great on defence since that point, particularly last season. His shooting has also tailed off, and although he was often the de facto backup PG last season, consistent playmaking isn’t really in his repertoire.
Age might be getting to PC, who is approaching his 32nd birthday. But to remain a vital part of this team, he’ll need to lock down some facets of his game that keep him on the court. Maybe it’s a shooting renaissance; perhaps he works on his pick-and-roll game and can be a more dangerous secondary connector; maybe his defence improves, and the ball-watching gets rectified. Pat played a pivotal role in the championship campaign because he was a reliable commodity that didn’t hurt the team. And I don’t know how to objectively quantify this, but Connaughton has shown himself to be a gamer. He isn’t scared to take big shots and has come up huge in so many critical possessions for this team. Chief among them, the Mike Breen “bang!” moments in the NBA Finals, of course.
A more controlled environment from the start of the season with Doc Rivers at the helm might help a guy like Pat to star in his role. However, if you’re making the case against Connaughton—who will likely begin the year, at a minimum, behind Portis, Wright, and Prince in the rotation—you’d reference the guys around him who do have elements of their game you can bank on much more reliably. AJ Green offers better and more dynamic shooting while probably being on par as a defender, if not better. In most people’s eyes, Andre Jackson Jr. is a significantly more impactful defender at this stage. Heck, Stanley Umude might be a better option if they’re looking for a three-and-D guy.
What happens if we’re a month into the season and Pat can’t guard anyone, his off-ball defence is as bad as ever, and he’s hovering around 30 percent from three? Would they bench him semi-permanently? This season could go very pear-shaped for Connaughton. In fact, just based on natural progression, this scenario is probably more likely than not to play out. But it could also go the other way; PC might find himself again. And that would be a fantastic story for a man who has become a part of the city’s fabric since he got there.
So, put your cards on the table. How will Pat figure into this season’s playoff rotation?
And now it’s real nut-crunching time. Who will be voted off the island next?
Polls close at 9 AM (Central) on Monday!