The guard looks to build on a successful sophomore season
I feel as though in every iteration of our Ranking the Roster exercise, you start getting players who can contribute for the Milwaukee Bucks once you reach the Top Nine — players where you, the readers, actually believe they will get rotation minutes. Fittingly, today we have AJ Green coming in at 9th for our 2024-2025 series.
As the biggest AJ Green fan on the staff, I felt a sense of obligation to be the one to cover his ranking. Green improved from last year’s ranking, where fans voted him in at 11th. If you look at his box score and nearly every other statistic from 2023-2024, they are close to identical compared to his rookie year. However, the most important statistic of all is the increase in sample size: We can feel a sense of greater confidence in what we see after Green appeared in 55 regular season games (a 16 game increase from his rookie year). As Riley mentioned when writing Green’s ranking profile last year, what makes his potential important is what he can do alongside what Giannis needs:
Improbably listed at 6’4”, I must admit that I’d have guessed he’s six-foot flat. Somehow I assigned myself all the players on the roster who appear much smaller on the court than the ink on the paper says they should. Green is not an amazing defender, hasn’t shown a ton of crazy dribbling ability or passing prowess, and doesn’t get in the paint at all. What he is is a man who knows exactly what his role is: Stand around and wait for someone to give him the ball for a great catch-and-shoot look.
Green’s shooting ability had him primarily taking shots via handoffs or as a spot-up shooter with 70% of Green’s field goal attempts involving 0 dribbles. Green was successful, ranking in the 98th percentile hand-off play type and 92.9% for spot-ups. Green was able to show a higher defensive floor than Bucks fans were expecting moving from question mark to serviceable in a pinch. His body size allowed him to fight through screens, and he isn’t getting torched when guarding on the wing. Strength and deceptive size set him up for far greater success than expected on that end.
It is interesting looking at AJ Green’s 2023-2024 as a tale of two seasons. While Adrian Griffin was head coach, Green would get some time but felt more of an afterthought, with MarJon Beauchamp and Andre Jackson Jr. getting more of the rotation minutes. Once Griffin was fired and Doc Rivers took over we saw Beauchamp and AJax fall out of the rotation while Green worked his way into becoming a mainstay. This was an even greater surprise given Rivers’ tendency to lean on veterans over younger players. Khris Middleton’s injury woes opened the door for Green to stake his claim, and he responded.
I think AJ Green is in this odd spot for his role going into this season. He’s got an inside track compared to the other young Bucks, but Milwaukee brought in a new group of veterans that will potentially roadblock him. Delon Wright isn’t direct competition but will be in the rotation, Pat Connaughton will get his opportunities, and new addition Gary Trent Jr. is poised to be the starting two guard. Green’s shooting will provide him a way onto the floor, and his defense and screen setting gives him stronger chance of staying there than we’d previously expect. There will be moments or series where Green’s skillset will be needed, but Doc Rivers will be the ultimate arbiter; managing a playoff rotation that finds a spot for Green falls on him. Either way, AJ Green feels like a player who will continue to see his ranking increase if he remains consistent.
Buy your AJ Green stock now. I know I have.
How about you? Where do you think AJ will end up in the Bucks postseason rotation?
And who will have the honor of being the last guy in the Bucks eight-man rotation?
You have until 8 AM (Central) tomorrow to cast your votes!