As it sits on March 13th, the New York Knicks are 42-23, locked into the Eastern Conference’s third seed. They’re 4.5 games back of Boston for second and 5.5 ahead of the Bucks, Pacers, and Pistons for third. Those three teams are locked in a death grip for the fourth seed, with Detroit slightly behind by percentage points. If the season ended today, New York would host the resurgent Pistons at Madison Square Garden in Game One of the first round. With these four squads having between 16 and 18 games remaining, it’s a good time to consider the implications for the Knicks’ postseason outlook. In other words, which first-round opponent do the Knicks matchup best against?
Ranking the Knicks’ Possible First-Round Matchups
Milwaukee and Indiana sit at 36-28, while Detroit is 37-29. The Pistons have the seventh-hardest remaining schedule, the Bucks the ninth-hardest, and the Pacers the 20th-hardest. All three teams are playing pretty well lately, so it stands to reason that Detroit or Milwaukee would land in the sixth spot. However, anything can happen, and all three could face New York in the first round. So, what are the matchup factors for each squad in a potential series with the Knicks? Let’s rank each possible first-round matchup for the Knicks from least to most favorable.
3. Milwaukee Bucks
Pros: Knicks have controlled the matchup, weak perimeter defense
The Knicks have absolutely dominated their series with Milwaukee this season, winning 116-94 and 140-106 at Madison Square Garden. Jalen Brunson has gotten the better of Damian Lillard and their porous perimeter defense, averaging 29.5 points and 7.5 assists on 65.2% true shooting in the two games. Between Lillard, Taurean Prince, and Kyle Kuzma, Brunson has three starters to easily attack. Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo are also much better rim defenders than on-ball guys, which is disadvantageous vs. New York’s five-out offense.
Cons: They have Giannis and Dame
Simply put, the Knicks are a much, much better team than Milwaukee. They have been for two seasons now, and the gap is just getting wider. However, the Bucks are still scary because they have such a lethal duo who can take over an entire series. Antetokounmpo and Lillard will have to average 60 points a game combined to beat the Knicks, but they could easily do that. NY has better options to guard Milwaukee’s stars than vice versa, but it’ll still be tough to contain them.
2. Indiana Pacers
Pros: Easy matchups for Brunson and Towns, revenge for last year
New York gets the much better end of the matchups in this series. They have the perfect players to guard both Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton, with OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges. Meanwhile, Indiana’s best option against Brunson is Aaron Nesmith, who he seemed to figure out as last year’s series wore on. Myles Turner is a good defender but is more suited to protect the rim than guard KAT in five-out closeout situations. NY will also have revenge on the mind, as they blew a 3-2 series lead in last season’s second-round series. They will be out to prove that it was injuries that cost them a chance at the Conference Finals.
Cons: Fast pace and depth disadvantages
At their best, Indiana plays with some of the best pace in the league. That playstyle suits them, as they have arguably the best open floor playmaker in the league in Haliburton, as well as endless waves of athletic wings to run the floor. Even their bigs are very mobile and can get out in transition. Their ability to constantly run fast with a rotation that goes ten deep is a problem for the top-heavy Knicks, who will likely reach the postseason with tired legs. NY desperately wants to avoid getting in a track meet with these guys.
1. Detroit Pistons
Pros: Talent and experience advantage
Although the Pistons have had a wildly successful season and are one of the hottest teams in basketball (12-3 in the last 15 games), the Knicks should be able to beat them somewhat comfortably. All of their rotation players have a ton of playoff experience, while several of the Pistons’ main guys have zero postseason experience, including Cade Cunningham. New York is also so much more talented and established one through eight in the lineup. Tim Hardaway Jr., Ausar Thompson, Tobias Harris, and Jalen Duren are a solid group around Cunningham, but Bridges, Josh Hart, Anunoby, and Towns are at a different level.
Cons: Cade Cunningham has destroyed their PnR defense
However, the Pistons are the only team of the three who has a winning record this season vs. New York. There’s one reason why: NY cannot guard their pick-and-roll with Cade Cunningham because of Brunson’s and Towns’ defensive weaknesses. In both losses to Detroit, the Knicks were picked apart, as they were forced to send double teams at Cade which allowed easy skip passes to open shooters. I’m not sure New York has an answer to this. Cunningham could have a great series, which could keep the Pistons in games. However, I would expect NY to be able to close them out in the end. They should be able to comfortably dispose of the Pistons.
The Last Word
The Pistons are both the least talented and least experienced team of the three experience is a crucial factor in the playoffs. Despite their success against the Bucks, Giannis and Dame should scare the Knicks more than the Pacers’ transition attack or Cade Cunningham. The Knicks should hope the Pistons stay in the sixth spot mainly due to their lack of experience and scoring options outside of Cade.
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